GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Trading Postions
EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1285, target 1.1500, stop-loss 1.1180
GBP/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5280, target 1.5480, stop-loss 1.5185
AUD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7780, target 0.7930, stop-loss 0.7710
EUR/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0540, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0460
EUR/JPY trading strategy: long at 134.10, target 137.00, stop-loss 133.10
AUD/NZD trading strategy: short at 1.0610, target 1.0440, stop-loss 1.0670
EUR/USD: Long Again, Target 1.1500
(long again, taken at 1.1285)
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[li]Greece is back on investors’ minds today. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras presented a list of moves to reverse reforms imposed by European and International Monetary Fund lenders, from reinstating pension bonuses and cancelling a property tax to ending mass layoffs and raising the minimum wage back to pre-crisis levels.
[/li][li]The USD gave back some ground today after a rally triggered by very good U.S. jobs report on Friday.
[/li][li]Let us remind that U.S. Non-farm payrolls increased 257k in January. Data for November and December was revised to show 147k more jobs created than previously reported.
[/li][li]In January, private payrolls increased 267k. Manufacturing added 22k jobs in January. Construction payrolls increased 39k after and retail employment increased 45.9k.
[/li][li]The unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, because the labor force increased. The participation rate, which is the share of working-age population who are employed or looking for a job, rose to 62.9% from 62.7% previously.
[/li][li]Wages increased 12 cents last month after falling five cents in December. That took the year-on-year gain to 2.2%, the largest since August. The average workweek was steady at 34.6 hours.
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[li]The Sentix research group’s index tracking moral among investors and analysts in the Euro zone rose to 12.4 in February from 0.9 in the previous month. A sub-index of expectations for the next six months improved even more dramatically, jumping to 27.5 points in February, a nine-year high, from 13.5 in January. A sub-index of the current economic situation improved to -1.8 in February from -11.0.
[/li][li]Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (voting this year) said he thinks the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly enough to justify an initial interest rate hike later this year, but that weak inflation and wage growth were worrisome. Lockhart said he in particular needs to see more signs that the recent drop in inflation caused by falling energy prices will prove transitory. With some measures of inflation expectations also dropping, Lockhart said he wants to be more confident in his inflation forecast before voting to raise rates. He projected that the economy would grow 3% in 2015 and again in 2016.
[/li][li]Our EUR/USD reached the stop-loss level after the U.S. jobs data, but we stay bullish on this currency pair. We have got long again at 1.1285. The EUR/USD bears may try to push the rate down using worries about Greece, but in our opinion this will not be dominant factor determining the EUR/USD move.
[/li][li]The market will focus probably on macroeconomic data and equity inflows which should be supportive for the EUR-buyers.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1463 (21-dma), 1.1499 (high Feb 5), 1.1534 (high Feb 3)
Support: 1.1280 (daily low Feb 2), 1.1262 (low Jan 29), 1.1224 (low Jan 27)
USD/CAD: Canadian Jobs Report Looks Good Only On Surface
(outlook unclear)
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[li]The Canadian economy added 35.4k jobs in January, far more than forecast of 4.5k. The increase brought the unemployment rate down to 6.6% from December’s 6.7%.
[/li][li]Details of the Canadian jobs report were less strong, with employers cutting 11.8k full-time jobs, but adding 47.2k part-time positions. The goods-producing sector added 9.7k jobs, while the services-producing sector increased by 25.7k.
[/li][li]The labor participation rate, which is closely watched by the Bank of Canada, held steady at 65.7%, the lowest since 2000.
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[li]The U.S. jobs figures were much more optimistic. As a result, the CAD weakened slightly against the USD after the data.
[/li][li]A separate report from Statistics Canada showed the value of Canadian building permits rose by 7.7% mom in December. The rise was above the median forecast of 5.0% mom and recovered some of November’s revised decline of 13.6% mom.
[/li][li]We stay sideways on the USD/CAD. Medium-term outlook is still bullish, because the Fed is likely to raise its rates much sooner than the Bank of Canada. However, short-term outlook is unclear. We may see some corrective moves in oil prices which would be supportive for the CAD. Moreover, in our opinion market expectations for one more interest rate cut in Canada are much too high.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.2546 (high Feb 6), 1.2585 (high Feb 5), 1.2591 (high Feb 4)
Support: 1.2375 (low Feb 6), 1.2353 (low Feb 3), 1.2324 (21-dma)
Source: Forex Trading Strategies