GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Trading Postions
EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1285, target 1.1500, stop-loss 1.1285
GBP/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5280, target 1.5480, stop-loss 1.5280
AUD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7680, target 0.7900, stop-loss 0.7615
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7340, target 0.7660 stop-loss 0.7270
EUR/JPY trading strategy: long at 134.10, target 137.00, stop-loss 134.60
Pending Orders
USD/JPY trading strategy: sell at 120.40, target 118.50, stop-loss 121.10, risk factor **
EUR/CHF trading strategy: buy at 1.0500, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0400, risk factor *
EUR/USD: The Market Hopes For A Greek Debt Deal
(stay long)
[ul]
[li]Talks between Greece and its Euro zone creditors broke down early Thursday. Following an emergency meeting of the Euro zone’s finance ministers in Brussels, the two sides failed to even issue a statement, but markets were buoyant on hopes that a deal will be reached.
[/li][li]Euro zone industrial output was unchanged mom and fell 0.2% yoy in January vs. expected rise by 0.2% mom and 0.3% yoy. In December industrial output wend down by 0.8% yoy. The EUR/USD traders are waiting now for U.S. January retail sales data (13:30 GMT) and we think that market consensus of -0.5% growth mom may be too optimistic.
[/li][li]Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (non-voting, hawkish) said short-term currency moves should not drive the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and, for now, the strong dollar and low global oil prices are a net positive for the U.S. economy.
[/li][li]We have raised the stop-loss on our EUR/USD long position to 1.1285 (the entry level). If the stop-loss is reached we will be ready to get long again at lower levels.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1353 (10-dma), 1.1359 (high Feb 9), 1.1438 (21-dma)
Support: 1.1270 (daily low Feb 7), 1.1262 (low Jan 29), 1.1224 (low Jan 27)
GBP/USD Strengthened By BOE Inflation Report
(stay long)
[ul]
[li]The Bank of England revised up its growth forecasts and predicted wages would grow faster. Growth this year is forecast to be its strongest in several years at 2.9%. For 2016, the BoE also expects growth of 2.9%, up from 2.6% expected in November. The BoE sees growth in wages by 3.5% this year after rising by just 1.8% in 2014.
[/li][li]The BoE expects that average consumer price inflation in the second quarter of this year is likely to fall to a record-low annual rate of zero, even lower than the 1% the BoE forecast in November. After that the BoE forecasts it will climb steadily to its 2% target in two years’ time, and a fraction over that in three years, if the BoE raises interest rates as markets expect. The BoE said financial markets did not expect the central bank to start to raise rates from their record-low 0.5% until the third quarter of 2016.
[/li][li]Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said: “We’re going to have a period where headline inflation is low - very low - for most of this year, and that’s a good thing in general because of the causes of it. It’s not a good thing if it persists though. (…) What is consistent with our objective of returning inflation within the next two years, it does require some limited and gradual increases in interest rates over the forecast horizon. It’s pretty clear in terms of our central expectation that most likely next move in monetary policy is an increase in interest rates.”
[/li][li]However, if global activity weakened and Britain became at risk of a vicious cycle of falling prices, the BoE said it was ready to cut rates, following in the footsteps of other central banks that have taken emergency policy action.
[/li][li]The GBP/USD jumped after the release of the BoE Inflation Report, in line with our expectations. Investors are starting to factor in a chance of the first hike in about 11 months’ time, compared with 12 months before the report was released.
[/li][li]We stay GBP/USD long. Our target is near the resistance level of 1.5481 (23.6% of 1.7192-1.4952)
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.5353 (high Feb 6), 1.5481 (23.6% of 1.7192-1.4952), 1.5584 (high Jan 2)
Support: 1.5197 (low Feb 10), 1.5196 (10-dma), 1.5169 (low Feb 5)
AUD/USD: We Still Expect No Change In RBA Rates In March
(long for 0.7900)
[ul]
[li]The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported employment fell 12.2k in January vs. a forecast for a rise of 5k and after a strong rise of 42.4k in December. The worrying sign is that all the job losses are concentrated in full-time jobs. Full-time employment fell 28.1k and part-time employment went up 15.9k. Job participation rate amounted to 64.8%.
[/li][li]The jobless rate jumped to 6.4%, from 6.2% in December, an unusually large shift that took it to levels not seen since August 2002.
[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]The Reserve Bank of Australia said softness in the labor market as one reason why it cut interest rates to a record low of 2.25% last week. The market now implies a 60% probability of a move in March, and over 90% for April.
[/li][li]We do not change our forecast that the RBA will not change interest rates in March despite weaker-than-expected jobs report. Figures from ANZ out this week showed job advertisements in newspapers and on the Internet rose for the eight straight month in January to reach their highest in at least two years. We should also remember that we had very strong employment report in December.
[/li][li]The RBA Governor Stevens’ speech is scheduled for today (22:30 GMT). He is likely to present the rationale for the rate cut, and the likelihood of further moves.
[/li][li]The AUD/USD fell strong and reached a day’s low at 0.7645 after the data release, but in our opinion the reaction was too strong and we expect some corrective moves soon.
[/li][li]We’ve got long again on the AUD/USD at 0.7680. However, the risk on this position is high, especially ahead of Stevens’ speech. We’ve set the target at 0.7900 and stop-loss at 0.7615.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 0.7769 (10-dma), 0.7795 (high Feb 11), 0.7842 (high Feb 10)
Support: 0.7627 (low Feb 3), 0.7451 (low May 18, 2009), 0.7335 (May 6, 2009)
Source: Forex Trading Strategies