GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Trading Postions
EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1285, target 1.1500, stop-loss 1.1285
GBP/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5280, target 1.5480, stop-loss 1.5280
AUD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7680, target 0.7900, stop-loss 0.7680
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7340, target 0.7660 stop-loss 0.7340
EUR/JPY trading strategy: long at 134.10, target 137.00, stop-loss 134.60
Pending Orders
USD/JPY trading strategy: sell at 120.40, target 118.50, stop-loss 121.10, risk factor **
EUR/CHF trading strategy: buy at 1.0520, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0445, risk factor *
EUR/USD: Euro Zone Economy Is Getting Back On Track
(stay long for 1.1500)
[ul]
[li]A preliminary estimate showed the Euro zone economy expanded by 0.3% qoq and 0.9% yoy in the fourth quarter 2014. The reading was better than the median forecast for 0.2% qoq growth.
[/li][li]The Euro zone’s biggest economy, Germany was a clear outperformer, growing by 0.7% qoq, far surpassing expectations of a 0.3% rise. French GDP growth amounted to just 0.1% qoq and Italian economy stagnated. Spain released its fourth-quarter figures two weeks ago and boasted quarterly growth of 0.7%, the fastest in seven years. The Dutch economy grew a healthy 0.5% qoq.
[/li][li]The near 50% fall in oil prices since last summer is likely to buoy consumer spending and the fall in the EUR/USD to near 11-year lows should help exporters in the Euro zone. On the other hand, the strong USD may weigh on the U.S. economy, that showed weaker macroeconomic data yesterday.
[/li][li]U.S. initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25k to a seasonally adjusted 304k for the week ended February 7 vs. expected rise to 285k.
[/li][li]U.S. retail sales fell 0.8% mom in January after dropping 0.9% mom in December. The reading was weaker than market expectations for a 0.5% mom fall. U.S.
[/li][li]Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services edged up 0.1% mom last month (vs. expected 0.4% gain) after a revised 0.3% mom drop in December. Receipts at clothing stores fell 0.8% mom. Receipts at online stores rose 0.5% mom, while sales at electronics and appliance stores gained 0.3% mom. Declining gasoline prices undercut sales at service stations, where receipts plunged 9.3% mom, the biggest fall since December 2008. Despite strong falls in gasoline prices consumer spending has been soft in the past two months. This may suggest that households are using the extra income to pay down debt and boost savings, which should be reflected in higher sales next months.
[/li][li]The agreement between Greece and its Euro zone partners is likely to be reached on Monday. European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said on Friday the European Union was ready to consider possible margins of manoeuvre on Greece’s debt, but that the new government of Alexis Tsipras needed to respect promises. Monday’s Eurogroup meeting of EU finance ministers, he said, would be crucial.
[/li][li]Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, attending his first European Union summit, agreed with the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, that Greek officials would meet representatives of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF on Friday. Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said Greece will make every effort to reach an agreement with its Euro zone partners at Monday’s meeting of Euro zone finance ministers on how to transition to a new support programme.
[/li][li]The EUR/USD rose yesterday on weak U.S. macro figures and hopes for Greek debt deal with Euro zone. The rate reached today’s high at 1.1441.
[/li][li]We do not change our EUR/USD long position.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1466 (hourly high Feb 6), 1.1486 (high Feb 6), 1.1499 (high Feb 5)
Support: 1.1390 (21-dma), 1.1378 (10-dma), 1.1303 (low Feb 12)
AUD/USD: RBA Governor Disappointed Markets, But Supported Our Long Position
(stay long for 1.1500)
[ul]
[li]The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens said cutting interest rates could be less effective at boosting the local economy than it did in the past. The central bank cut the official cash rate to a record low of 2.25% last week.
[/li][li]The AUD/USD edged higher after the Stevens’ speech as he disappointed those expecting a more downbeat view of the economy. He also downplayed the previous day’s weak jobs report.
[/li][li]While Stevens gave no clear guidance on whether the bank would ease again, markets are still expecting a cut in March or April. In our opinion the RBA governor left the door for further easing, but we do not expect a rate cut in March.
[/li][li]Stevens’ speech was supportive for our AUD/USD long taken at 0.7680 yesterday.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 0.7795 (high Feb 11), 0.7842 (high Feb 10), 0.7842 (high Feb 10)
Support: 0.7721 (hourly low Feb 13), 0.7670 (hourly low Feb 12), 0.7644 (low Feb 12)
Source: Forex Trading Strategies