GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Trading Postions
EUR/USD trading strategy:long at 1.1285, target 1.1500, stop-loss 1.1320
GBP/USD trading strategy:long at 1.5280, target 1.5480, stop-loss 1.5340
AUD/USD trading strategy:long at 0.7680, target 0.7900, stop-loss 0.7680
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7340, target 0.7660 stop-loss 0.7420
EUR/JPY trading strategy:long at 134.10, target 137.00, stop-loss 134.60
Pending Orders
EUR/CHF trading strategy:buy at 1.0520, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0445, risk factor *
EUR/USD: Eyes On Greece
(long for 1.1500)
[ul]
[li]Greece’s finance minister meets his euro zone peers and ECB President Mario Draghi today to discuss how to proceed with his country’s bailout programme, which runs out on February 28.
[/li][li]Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wants to scrap the existing bailout deal and replace it with a new one. In the meantime, he wants a short-term “bridge agreement" that can keep Greece solvent after February 28, when the current bailout deals ends. If no deal is reached by February 28, Greece’s banks could be cut off from affordable funding from the central bank.
[/li][li]Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that he was not very optimistic that Greece and its euro zone peers would reach a debt agreement in talks on Monday. Schaeuble said that Germany did not want a Greek exit from the euro zone, but that the new government in Athens had to fulfil the minimum of the claims.
[/li][li]In our opinion the EUR/USD is poised for more gains this week due to expected improvement of Euro zone macroeconomic data. We expect good German ZEW reading (tomorrow 10:00 GMT) and strong Euro zone PMIs on Friday. A compromise on the Greek issue will be also supportive for the EUR/USD bullish positions.
[/li][li]We do not change our EUR/USD long.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1443 (high Feb 13), 1.1486 (high Feb 6), 1.1499 (high Feb 5)
Support: 1.1380 (21-dma), 1.1303 (low Feb 12), 1.1270 (low Feb 9)
USD/JPY: Japan’s GDP Growth Below Expectations
(we stay sideways)
[ul]
[li]Japan’s economy rebounded from recession in the final quarter of last year but growth was weaker than expected. The annualised 2.2% expansion in October-December was smaller than a 3.7% increase forecast.
[/li][li]Private consumption rose 0.3% in the final quarter. Capital expenditure also rose just 0.1% after two straight quarters of declines. Private consumption and capital spending, which had been expected to boost growth in October-December, turned out to be weaker than expected. The data shows negative impact from a sales tax hike last April continued.
[/li][li]External demand added 0.2 percentage point to qoq growth on robust shipments to the United States and China, Japan’s two biggest export destinations.
[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that Japan’s economy is showing signs of recovery with improvements seen in service-sector sentiment. Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said he expects the economy to continue recovering led by firm private-sector demand as terms of trade improve due to declines in crude oil prices.
[/li][li]At the two-day rate review ending on Wednesday, the BOJ board will analyze a batch of mixed data, and is likely to revise up its assessment of exports and output. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged for a while to see the impact from the latest easing. Pessimists on the BOJ board worry that households may continue to hold off on spending unless wages rise significantly, and that exports may not rise much given the murky global outlook. But many of them are also skeptical of what further easing could do to stimulate growth and believe that expanding QQE again, with further unwelcome falls in the yen, may do more harm than good. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains unfazed, stressing that a weak JPY is positive for the economy and that the bank won’t hesitate to ease again if needed to hit its inflation target.
[/li][li]The USD/JPY did not react significantly to Japan’s GDP data. The rate traded near 200-hma of 118.67. Investors are focused now on Wednesday’s BOJ decision, but we do not expect any additional action from the Japanese monetary authorities.
[/li][li]We stay sideways on the USD/JPY now. There are still big challenges ahead of Japan’s economy, while the Fed is getting closer to interest rates hikes. That is why medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY remains bullish. However, short-term outlook is unclear.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 119.19 (high Feb 13), 120.46 (high Feb 12), 120.48 (high Feb 11)
Support: 118.20 (hourly low Feb 16), 117.19 (low Feb 6), 117.04 (low Feb 5)
NZD/USD Bulls Supported By New Zealand’s Retail Sales Data
(we stay long)
[ul]
[li]New Zealand retail sales volumes increased at the strongest pace in two and a half years in the fourth quarter. Sales volumes rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the fourth quarter, against market expectations for a 1.3% rise, and an upwardly revised 1.6% rise in the previous quarter.
[/li][li]Retail sales were driven by a 3.4% jump in vehicles sales and servicing, while spending in bars and restaurants increased 3%, with solid gains also in clothing and electronic goods and appliances. Core retail sales volumes, which exclude fuel and motor sales and servicing, rose 1.5%.
[/li][li]The data was in line with other data pointing to solid economic growth but with little inflation pressure. Retail sales data cooled expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might consider a rate cut, as other central banks have done recently to stimulate flagging activity.
[/li][li]Strong retail sales data supported our long NZD/USD position taken at 0.7340. We have raised the stop-loss level on this position to 0.7420.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 0.7582 (high Jan 22), 0.7709 (high Jan 21), 0.7781 (high Jan 20)
Support: 0.7428 (hourly low Feb 16), 0.7412 (low Feb 13), 0.7405 (10-dma)
Source: Forex Trading Strategies