GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Trading Postions
EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1370, target 1.1550, stop-loss 1.1290
GBP/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5400, target 1.5580, stop-loss 1.5320
AUD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7680, target 0.7900, stop-loss 0.7795
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7340, target 0.7660 stop-loss 0.7450
GBP/JPY trading strategy: long at 183.00, target 186.20, stop-loss 182.00
Pending Orders
EUR/CHF trading strategy: buy at 1.0630, if filled - target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0540, risk factor *
AUD/JPY trading strategy: buy at 92.30, if filled - target 94.30, stop-loss 91.60, risk factor ***
EUR/USD: Greek Debt Agreement Likely Next Week
(stay long for 1.1550)
[ul]
[li]Euro zone composite flash PMI rose to 53.5 in February, its best since July, from a final reading of 52.6 last month. The PMI pointed to 0.3% GDP growth in the current quarter. However, a follow-through in March could push it up to 0.4%.
[/li][li]Faster growth was seen in both manufacturing and services, where factory output and business activity measures hit seven-month highs. Forward-looking indicators bode well for a further upturn in March. Expectations of business activity in the year ahead in the service sector rose to the highest since May 2011, and the new orders-to-inventory ratio in manufacturing hit a seven-month peak. The latter suggested that factories will step up production to ensure orders can be fulfilled.
[/li][li]There is still no inflation pressure in the Euro zone. Average selling prices fell at a reduced rate compared to January, which had seen the largest decline for almost five years.
[/li][li]By country, an increasingly robust upturn was recorded in Germany while France enjoyed its best month of growth since August 2011, but growth elsewhere across the region eased.
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[ul]
[li]The EUR/USD fell on Friday to 1.1304 as traders remained cautious before a meeting on Greece’s request for a six-month loan extension. On Thursday, Germany rejected a Greek proposal for a six-month extension to its Euro zone loan agreement, before Euro zone finance ministers meet on Friday. Investors are waiting for the outcome of the meeting at 14:00 GMT. It is widely expected that sooner or later there will be an agreement because they have to reach one, but it may take an emergency summit of the currency bloc in the coming week to clinch any deal.
[/li][li]Germany’s EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said on Friday he thinks Greece and its creditors should be able to reach a deal but may need another meeting of euro zone leaders next week.
[/li][li]Yesterday’s U.S. macroeconomic data were mixed. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21k to a seasonally adjusted 283k for the week ended February 14. The reading was better than the median market forecast for a fall to 293k. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index fell to 5.2, the lowest since February 2014, from January’s 6.3. The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% mom (vs. a forecast for 0.3% mom growth) after a downwardly revised 0.4% mom advance in December.
[/li][li]St. Louis Fed President James Bullard repeated his call for the Fed’s policy-setting committee to next month drop its pledge to be “patient” in deciding to raise rates, opening the door to a June rate hike. Bullard is a well-known hawk who has repeatedly said the central bank has already been too patient. Bullard is not a voting member on the Fed’s policy setting committee this year, but does take part in regular policy deliberations.
[/li][li]We do not change our long EUR/USD position.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1450 (high Feb 17), 1.1486 (high Feb 6), 1.1499 (high Feb 5)
Support: 1.1303 (low Feb 12), 1.1270 (low Feb 9), 1.1262 (low Jan 29)
GBP/USD: Next Target For The GBP Bulls Is 1.5580
(long again)
[ul]
[li]UK retail sales for January fell short of expectations, but that had little effect on the GBP. Retail sales fell in January by 0.3% mom and rose by 5.4% yoy vs. the median forecast for a 0.2% mom fall. Retail sales rose strongly in the last two months of 2014, boosted by Britain’s first major round of U.S.-style Black Friday sales in November, and as shoppers bought more fuel in December on the back of falling oil prices. Wages are showing some signs of recovery after growing by less than inflation for much of the period since the financial crisis, and consumer prices are barely rising, boding well for spending power this year.
[/li][li]Other data showed that public finances improved in January. The Office for National Statistics reported a January public finance surplus excluding banks of GBP 8.8 bn, up 35% yoy, but slightly short of a forecast surplus of GBP 9.0 bn.
[/li][li]We took profit on our previous GBP/USD long after the release of dovish Fed minutes (1.5330-1.5480) and we are long again now. The position was taken at 1.5400 today, in line with our trading strategy. Our next target is 1.5580, below 2015 high recorded on January 2. We went long also on the GBP/JPY at 183.00.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.5480 (high Feb 18), 1.5481 (23.6% of 1.7192-1.4952), 1.5588 (high Jan 2).
Support: 1.5343 (low Feb 18), 1.5317 (low Feb 17), 1.5237 (21-dma)
Source: Forex Trading Strategies