Hello Everyone,

This is gonna be a high theoretical and research topic. Essential statistics and applied statistics knowledge shall be thefore necessary.

The idea started into another topic, “The forex portfolio…” by Mastergunner99. The project involves applying Optimal risky portfolio theory to invest in the 28 combinations of the majors in an efficient way, and not simply “random” Equity/28.

Why investing in more pairs at the same time? Diversification and Hedging advantages were first mathematically formally prooved by Markowitz in the 50’s.

Knowing more in details standard deviation and correlation ρ (pearson) among pairs we could build an optimal risky portfolio, where securities are represented by the 28 traded pairs. In this way, we could form an efficient CAL and optimize capital allocation of the 28 pairs. What I mean with this is that, instead of investing E/28 in each pair, we could optimize the investment by dividing equity in a more efficient way.

ie. giving more % to pairs with correlation closer to 0, avoid to trade pairs with correlation close to 1, and using pairs with correlation close to -1 to hedge particular risky positions.

This means that by the end of the process, the amount of traded pairs could be reduced.

In order to reach HOW to form the portfolio, ie. how many % of Equity to invest in each pair (eg. 10% in EU, 15% in EJ etc etc) We need:

- Covariances
- Variances of each weight (pair) σ^2
- Correlation ρ (pearson) among pairs
- Expected return of each weight (E®)
- Standard deviation σ

My main concern is about estimating the E® of each pair, as it really depends on individual set of TP (or alternitavely, estimating standard deviation, as it depends on individual set of SL) (ie. A (risk aversion)).

But yea we know that this is one of the main criticism moved to Markowitz theory… and we should also put in account different costs for different pairs (different spread), but that’s the least of the problems.

Average Fund manager (with an already well diversified portfolio, so not FX alone) makes what? 15% a year? but then you got who loses money… and we are still talking of institutionals/professionals… if we get down to retails, statistics fall fast and impressively. And what I wanna do is estimating E® not even of the whole market, but of each pair… it’s a hell of a work.

I did a fast search on web but there isn’t anythign at all… just people sharing their expected ROE lol which has zero integrity and vary pretty much, depending on the fantasy of the discloure xD

This is a big task that I can’t obviosuly accomplish on my own. As I stated above, the main issue we gotta solve is finding out E® and σ (and so σ^2), the rest comes as consequence

SO… who’s up for it?