Hallo.
Forexschoolonline said in this thread (I think in the first 50 pages) that a setup against the trend can be a good setup but it’s never a A+ trade: 301 Moved Permanently (post 173)
Yes, but the odds that you lose 7 times in a row an event with 80% probability to win are very low. I play poker and never lost with AA against smaller pocket pair all in preflop 7 times in a row (AA vs pocket pair all in preflop is 80:20). But I lost 15 coinflips (a 50:50 event, for instance AKs vs QQ) in a row.
I was speaking about the win rate of a particular setup not about my overall win rate.
I’m still in the CT PB from USD/CHF D1… from 0.9144
Already taken half profit at first minor s/r 0.9172 and moved reminder to BE, I’d hope it goes to ~0.923 but you never know, anyway - free trade from now onwards. After all, protecting the profit is most important for us!
I have never played CT so far at all, and this one ticked all the boxes + rejecting past s/r ~0.911
PS. I’m still on demo, for last ~5 months.
The best trades will always be found with the trend, but on occasions you will get great opportunities to enter a market against the trend. This is like the setup we had on the GBPUSD daily chart. I made a live video of this as I took it and now as I just closed out the trade which I will post up over the weekend that will hopefully help explain why it was an obvious and good trade. It was the first trade I had entered in almost 3 weeks. As most know I am super picky and this was the sort of trade I wait for.
As I said in previous post people should know if they trade counter trend or not and if you are newb or not yet making a profit counter trend trading will be even more difficult but if you have experience and understand more fully how the market works and flows then trading against the trend on occasions can prove profitable.
Firstly as Dudest said go easy on upping the risk because as he explained 80% win rate does not equate to 8 wins every 10 trades and if you think this way with your risk you will risk too much and crash and burn. Always have an eye to staying in the game and manage your risk accordingly.
Once you have some experience with both with and against the trend trading there should be no difference in the win rate. If you are picky and only playing the best setups the % of how often they work out will remain the same.
Yes the very best trades will be found with the trend, but what that means is that you will play less counter trend setups because there are less high probability trades to take.
Looks okay but for me this has closed above support which it will now be trading into. Could work out but that support would worry me.
Unsure why people asking about the open and close as the pin opens and closes within previous candle in all of my charts. Unless people are getting confused with the body and wick and in which case remembers that the pin just has to close within any part of the previous candle.
USDCAD 4HR CHART
Can you tell me what is the difference between trading price action with- drawing horizontal lines, trend lines or MA (EMA) methods?
And which method is better to trading? Is there any difference at all or is all subjective?
we try to keep things both as simple and logical as possible. The problem with both emas and trend lines is that they are not proven levels. What I mean is you give a chart to 10 people and 10 people will show you different trend lines. The same goes for emas. Every trader is using a different ema, and for different reasons. Some use them as crosses and others as support and resistance. The other problem with ema’s is that traders will tend to see what they want to see.
The truth is if you learn to read price and how it reacts between key points in the market you will do fine.
We operate of proven levels that price respects day after day after day. Look at any Forex chart and you will see price bounding between these levels over again. We mark our key levels and wait for price to get there. There is no “seeing what we want to see” because we are waiting for price to get to our proven key levels and then for price to show us a clue that of what the market wants to do.
The last thing is people often say they need ema’s for trend identification. This one is really bizarre. Ema’s are built from using old price. By the time the ema is telling us the trend, we could have already been in it from reading what live price was doing on our charts.
Forget all the rubbish and learn to read what price is doing and how it behaves at certain levels and you will have a strategy that works in many markets and time frames.
And the last one saved the week for me… not much profit though since the spread on AUDCAD isn’t great. Almost 1:1 ratio (I know… not that great but you get what u get). Quick trade with the engulfing bar. Decided to finish the trade instead of moving to break even since last time on usdcad I got stopped out when I did that.
We had some good potential trades at the start of this week on eurcad h4 (engulfing bar), cadjpy h4 ( pin bar ish on support after the closing gap) and usdcad (it was pin bar and then it become an engulfing bar).
I decided to short usdcad since it was the biggest signal. It went on my favor 12 pips ( give or take) and I moved to break even my stop loss. Next morning turned on my computer and I was out of the trade. No profit no loss.
Thanks, I mean that a lot of people use EMA for Support and ressistance also and trend lines.
Ok Im confusing when I place horizontal S&R lines becouse I dont know how far in the past to see for points (levels) to draw the lines, I know that the highest point is the ressistance and the lowest- support but In one chart its have a lot of high and low points (+ the corrections) so… shoud I draw and through them lines? Hire one pic for example where Im confused:
Am I drawn correctly?
hi john, can you give me advices for draw support and resistence areas ?
you say , trading out areas and not into areas , can you explean ?
my English is not so good , thank you !
It’s a nice video - simple but profitable trade! I’ve only joined your thread this year (about 5-6months) but I’ve learned a lot more than the last few years of my other trading education. I really appreciate it. I also want to say thank you to few other senior traders in this thread particularly Dudest who is very helpful!
I wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2013!
I place SLs & TPs after minor support levels around PB noses, or EBs, etc. Below image will explain (short red line). It means I have lower RR but we all know it’s not entirely about RR but managing the trade correctly in the first place, right?
Money/trade management is not discussed in this thread, but maybe there are a few pointers that can be gleaned from the now happened GBPUSD trade.
My personal thoughts on trailing stops is they are a double-edged sword [ allowing you to ride a strong movement but making you susceptible to whipsaws (that take you out then price continues in the original direction) ]
With that in mind, I personally prefer to have taken the bulk of the position off the table (e.g TP1, TP2) before leaving a small position to [I]aluta continua[/I] with a trailing stop.
For the GBPUSD: this is how I did it ( would love for others who took it also share how they managed ).
-> Entry: below pinbar low ======> entry concept discussed in this thread
-> SL: above pinbar high ======> SL concept discussed in this thread
-> FTA and TP1: At 1.6200 (RN). SL also moved to BE here. ======> FTA & BE concepts discussed in this thread
-> TP2 (final): At 1.6150.
Being a CT trade, I was being conservative with targets (according to trading plan), hence two TPs.
I’m now hoping for a nice bullish PA on lower timeframes ( H12/H8/H4 ) at the level where price is currently.
