Forex Price Action

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 12:22am

Good to see you Panupat, and nice to see another member posting a trade. Great for me as i’m a visual learner.

Nice bag of pips for the 15 min. chart.

I love talking money management, which is something i’m working on. e.g. At 3RR on every trade (-1R S/L), i can have 5 losers and 2 winners and still be in profit.

Good trading all. G

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 12:45am

NZD/USD. Watching this pair. Has smashed through support @ .7600. Will wait for a retrace and solid PA at new resistance. If so, there’s room for pips to be made down to monthly support at .7450 level. G

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 1:26am

DELETED wrong chart

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 1:34am

Please ignore above eur/aud chart. wrong date-it won’t let me delete.

EUR/AUD H1. In short at swing high off minor resistance. blended candle PB with longer term down trend. 3RR.

dubadat · January 22, 2015, 1:50am

Hello Gforce,

I have seen a previous post by you where you mentioned blended candle PB. Which two candles did you blend in the above EURAUD H1 trade?

Appreciate if you could advise.

Trying to learn

DD

Panupat · January 22, 2015, 2:02am

Lots of risk involved in EUR today as ECB will be announcing about QE. Whatever their decision is I’m expecting a huge swing today which would stop out traders in both direction.

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 2:37am

Hello Dubadat,

Thanks for your question. I blended the high candle (red bearish bar with my stop loss above it) with the green candle before it, which makes a Pin bar. The distance between the open of green bar with close of 2nd bar equals a small pin bar nose, with the above of candles acting as the wick. In my eyes anyway. More on page 1 and early pages of this thread somewhere is an explanation. Better if you see a drawing.

P.S. If i can suggest, be careful getting bogged down in that sort of thing. Can get complicated/distracting. Good to keep trading simple. :13:

Best wishes, G.

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 2:38am

Thanks Panupat. I forgot about that. G

dubadat · January 22, 2015, 2:49am

Gforce,

Thanks. Appreciate it. Now I can see the blended PB

DD

Scottyspips · January 22, 2015, 3:31am

Blended pb forming on the 4hr chart aud/usd near the .80400 mark of my sr

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 4:00am

Maybe Scotty, but that candle doesn’t close for another hour so it could do anything by then. But yes, price at support. Be careful as even though price is consolidating and at monthly support, we are still in a downtrend and there is plenty of room to fall. Watching for PA to tell the story.

P.S. Beware of blended candle patterns. I can’t verify their success rate at this stage.

P.P.S. AUD/NZD D1 approaching KHL. I will look for a short off resistance in line with trend. G

Scottyspips · January 22, 2015, 4:01am

Got in the eur/aud on the pin from the 4hr chart. With the major trend plenty of room to breath.

Scottyspips · January 22, 2015, 4:09am

I’m watching aud nzd too. There’s a bit going on hard to keep up lately I’ve just been so busy. I’ve had 8 weeks off work so far so thought maybe I should start looking for a job lol. Pretty keen on not going back to work that’s for sure makes me want to be able to go full time trading even more. So good to be at home with wife and kids that’s the main reason I want to get good at trading is just lots of free time.

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 4:11am

Scotty. That’s not a Pinbar. Close though.

2 reasons:

candle did not close withing previous price bar.
Wick must be at least 2 thirds of the length of candle body. Refer page 1 for PB rules.

As it happens, i am in on PA on the H1 chart. Price looks bearish to me though so you may well make some pips. All the best. G

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 4:14am

That’s a great plan mate. Be patient as trading takes a fair while to learn, as simple as this method is. If someone can profit consistently for 3 months on demo with this method, then that’s a positive start. Are you trading with real money?

matko24 · January 22, 2015, 5:23am

Guys watch out for Draghi´s QE announcement

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 5:41am

Thanks Matko. Yes, it will be interesting. G

Scottyspips · January 22, 2015, 5:54am

Yeah real money. Only small account though so all good. My normal day job pays plenty lol just I work a **** load.

Pippin_it_Old_School · January 22, 2015, 6:31am

Panupat:

Hi Pippin glad to see you around Recognize your avatar right away. Hope you’re doing well! I picked up quite a lot of idea especially last quarter of 2014. I’ll be happy to share my idea here but I’ll keep it short.

First is fundamental. I knew NZD released the lowest CPI in 2 years which makes me wanted to sell NZD.

Second is the basic of any profit making - buy low sell high. In FOREX you can sell first and buy later, too. That is why I wanted NZD/USD to move higher first before I sell. This is where technical analysis comes into play as it can tell you where would be a nice level to buy or sell.

Third is the idea that market is manipulative… and 1 most forgotten fact among traders who trade looking at digital chart.
Without buyer, you cannot sell.
Without seller, you cannot buy.
How can I buy EUR if no one is selling, right? When the big players want to short, they need others to buy. That’s why they push price higher, both to lure new buyers and to hit stoploss (which is a buy limit) of those already short. If the big players got all their ordered fill, price will move. Else they’ll keep pushing price to the same level over and over, creating what you see as the “side way range”.

Fourth is the phrase that I discarded and ignored for many years… Risk small, reward big. For the longest time I thought that was unnecessary if I have crazy high win rate. Well, early 2014 I barely lose. But when most wins only gave me 0.5R (even less with spread+swap), 1 lose can set me back 3-4 trades. Anyway, today I try to go for small stop and 5-10R. It does take a lot of pressure out of trading because suddenly I don’t need to win all the time. I can lose 3-4 trades in a row and still end up in profit.

That was why I entered NZD/USD on a “chance” price could make a 2 bar reversal instead of waiting for candle close. If I was no occupied with other things, I would have tried to enter much closer to 0.77 with much smaller stop so I can go for larger lot size. Maybe even 5 times larger than I did. If I got stopped out, it’s 1R. Else I make 5-10R.

This is where you have to experiment for yourself I suppose how much you want to risk and what R works for you. I go for 5-10R, my win rate is around 15-20%. There was a member at FF, Fezmar, who only win 4-5 times a year and lose all the time, but he went for 100R or even 200R and he ended up making 6 figures in that 1 year. His method was a true eye opener for me. Freed me from any limitations I put on myself. Fezmar deleted his thread already sadly because his friends didn’t like him revealing their secrets.

Wow, thank you Panupat for your insight. I can identify with you on the R:R situation. I am constantly experimenting to see what works best for me, and I have to say, relying on a consistent win rate to be able to make a profit really puts a lot of pressure on trading. So far I am pleased with my results, but I think there is still a long way to go before I am completely comfortable with my strategy. Thanks again friend.

Joey

gforce1 · January 22, 2015, 6:35am

Ah ok. It’s hard to know if folks are blowing the household’s precious friday bingo money. All the best with it. As Johnathan said to me once…‘there’s no need to lose money learning this method’. So with that sage advice, i’ve put my live acct on hold and trading this method strictly demo until i’m consistently profitable over at least 3 months.