Forex Price Action

[chisha]

Hello Johnathon!
I’ve read this whole thread from page one up until here, to be honest I’ve been tempted many times to post before reading the whole thread but I chose against it.
I’d like to thank you and everyone here whose made this thread such a success! I’ve learned so much about price action and my trading has taken a turn for the better, can’t wait to join the course and see what you have to offer.
I’ll post some charts when I find some setups & I’m looking forward to interact with Spongy, Dudest, Bhops and everyone else.

[forbiden]

Johnathon, what do you say about [U]potencial[/U] against the trend PinBar @ AudUsd with TP 1.01000 ?!

[Forex_School_Online]

Johnathon, what do you say about [U]potencial[/U] against the trend PinBar @ AudUsd with TP 1.01000 ?!

I would say good luck and I wil be watching. No doubt it could be a valid Pin, but when I am looking to get into a trade I am looking to have multiple things going in my favour. Yes this is a pin at a longer term level but I need more to trade against all that momentum. I would need a recent level or a false break or something else to give me another layer of confluence.

But as said if closes like it is now it would be a valid trade and would most definitely not be wrong at all to enter.

[shane]

I am new in learning price action. I spotted this Pin bar on EUr/Usd in D1. Basically the tails did penetrate the resistance point but being pull back. So, as I am still in demo, I open a trade at the close of the Pin bar (1st trade) , 2nd pending order trade place on 50% of the tails which most of the retracement after pin bar will hit. Am I right with my analysis? Hope to get more comments.

[Spongybob]

Hey Shane

Please read post #8618 by Dudest, its explains exactly why you should not have traded here.

Cheers

@shane

I am new in learning price action. I spotted this Pin bar on EUr/Usd in D1. Basically the tails did penetrate the resistance point but being pull back. So, as I am still in demo, I open a trade at the close of the Pin bar (1st trade) , 2nd pending order trade place on 50% of the tails which most of the retracement after pin bar will hit. Am I right with my analysis? Hope to get more comments.

[Revival]

Since making my first post, I read through a few hundred pages more and polished off the last 50, I’m pretty confident in starting demo trading now. I still have 2 things that I need to clarify though.

1st. I notice that some traders here don’t take a trade if the PA signal is within a consolidation box. For example, say price is in a downtrend, and retraces to a good support turned resistance area and consolidates for a few candles and forms a good PA signal. I notice that some people don’t take these trades. Why not? Is it because they might trade into the support of the lows of the consolidation box?

2nd. I know trading with the trend is the best, but there seem to be people “divided” on where the trend is actually going. For example, if the overall trend is downwards, but lately there has been upward momentum, some people will say it is still a downtrend, and some people will say there is upward momentum, so they will take longs. What do you do in this case? I know Johnathon says trade with short term trend, but what do you do if there is an overall downtrend but there has been 10-15 maybe even 20 candles of bullish momentum like in the above example? Does it depend on the strength of the candles?

Also what about ranging markets? I know Johnathon says to trade reversals at the top and bottom of the range, but some ranges are pretty big. So can you treat the movement of these ranges as short term up and down trends? For example movement from the top of a range to the bottom could take many candles, so can you treat this as short term downward momentum and “trade” with the trend?

I’ve added some charts to help explain what I’m talking about in my 2nd question.

For example on this chart I took from this thread. Let’s pretend that there had been an overwhelming downward trend, but then price had some upward momentum towards the pin. Would this pin still be considered a trade with the trend, since the overall trend is overwhelmingly down?

However let’s pretend that the trend has been weakly downward, would the pin still be considered with the trend since we had 17 candles of quite strong upward momentum?

Another example here. Let’s pretend again the overall trend is downwards, but we have a strong move upwards, and it seems to want to continue that way. Should we look for longs since we are only concerned about short term momentum and would we be trading with the trend?

On the other hand, if it is in a range or weakly in a downtrend, I wouldn’t have a problem looking for long trades.

Here again, should this 2 BR be considered against the short term momentum (it is quite strong)? Or since price is kind of ranging is it not as much of a concern?

Should this BUEB be considered against the short term momentum? Or since price is ranging and at the bottom of the range, is it not as much of a concern?

Sorry about this long question, but it’s just that one thing I really want to clear up for myself. Thanks to everyone for taking the time to answer questions and keep this thread going

[traderamateur]

This is something people get confused about. Yes out method is about picking the best trades and having a high win rate. This will mean that we don’t need the huge risk reward winners that other traders who take more losers do because as we are banking more profits and don’t need to cover the extra losses that others do. This will mean that we have a steadier increase in our account if we can bank regular profits. This is preferred to using the high risk reward and lower win method. With this a trader can still be profitable but you have to be prepared for your account to go into heavy drawndown and then wait for that large winner toi put you back in front.

Now Risk Reward IS IMPORTANT! You can still have a high win rate and lose money if you don’t bank enough money on your winning trades! So traders need to work out and continually check that they are making enough money in their winning trades compared to their win rate.

Johnathon

Point noted and internalized. Thanks Johnathon

[traderamateur]

Hallo,

1. Short answer: NO, we do not take retrace entries (Johnathon doesn’t do double-speak).
   -> That does not stop anyone from doing it, but Mr J doesn’t do it and doesn’t recommend it.

2. XAGUSD D1 BUEB: even with the boxing area, I still think it’s a worthwhile trade [ every trade is risky ]
   ( PS: this is not trading advice! )

Cheers

Thanks mate. Crystal clear now.

[marketdeal]

@Forex_School_Online

This is something people get confused about. Yes out method is about picking the best trades and having a high win rate. This will mean that we don’t need the huge risk reward winners that other traders who take more losers do because as we are banking more profits and don’t need to cover the extra losses that others do. This will mean that we have a steadier increase in our account if we can bank regular profits. This is preferred to using the high risk reward and lower win method. With this a trader can still be profitable but you have to be prepared for your account to go into heavy drawndown and then wait for that large winner toi put you back in front.

Now Risk Reward IS IMPORTANT! You can still have a high win rate and lose money if you don’t bank enough money on your winning trades! So traders need to work out and continually check that they are making enough money in their winning trades compared to their win rate.

Johnathon

Will bear that in mind.I passed the recent usdnzd 8 h trade because of the RR because it was a bit far away from less than 1:1 RR.So far i took many trades with less than 1:1 risk reward.But still i think for example the risk of losing 80 pips for gaining 20 pips is not justified.Well risk reward is a really subjective thing.

[Remitu]

Saw this nice pin bar on the CADJPY daily but the overhead level of 100.00 put me off

Am i right in my reasoning for this (non) trade?

CADJPY

• With recent up trend
• Nice retracement to a good S/R level
• Good size pin bar (stands out)
  - Overhead VBRN of 100.00 which is about 30 pips above the high of the pin bar

• Would have loved to see the pin bar close more bullish

Remitu

[hmr7788]

Hey Remitu, I love this pin too. But i am with you that the VBRN keep me away from this trade
Cheers

@Remitu

Saw this nice pin bar on the CADJPY daily but the overhead level of 100.00 put me off

Am i right in my reasoning for this (non) trade?

CADJPY

• With recent up trend
• Nice retracement to a good S/R level
• Good size pin bar (stands out)
  - Overhead VBRN of 100.00 which is about 30 pips above the high of the pin bar

• Would have loved to see the pin bar close more bullish

Remitu

[TkMpZ]

can this usd/chf count as a PB set up on swing low?

[traderamateur]

Hey Remitu, I love this pin too. But i am with you that the VBRN keep me away from this trade
Cheers

Yeah… too bad…

[ilovewaves]

Hey there - has gbpchf daily got a bullish pin bar touching the 1.45246 s/r (red line) swing low? Or has the pin bar got too much candle?

[Forex_School_Online]

@TkMpZ

can this usd/chf count as a PB set up on swing low?

I think you need to do a little more reading on what makes a Pin Bar… The nose does not stick out and away from price here like we would need. It is stuck back in.

[Forex_School_Online]

@ilovewaves

Hey there - has gbpchf daily got a bullish pin bar touching the 1.45246 s/r (red line) swing low? Or has the pin bar got too much candle?

Same here: I think you need to do a little more reading on what makes a Pin Bar…

Please read the first 50 pages. In this lot of pages you will find links to articles and videos etc where all this is explained in detail with the basic rules and exactly what is needed will be made clear so you don’t have to guess.

[Yumei]

I took long position when the PB was formed, the Price still in support area, hope that it will hit TP in next 2 candles. CADJPY D1 chart.

@Remitu

Saw this nice pin bar on the CADJPY daily but the overhead level of 100.00 put me off

Am i right in my reasoning for this (non) trade?

CADJPY

• With recent up trend
• Nice retracement to a good S/R level
• Good size pin bar (stands out)
  - Overhead VBRN of 100.00 which is about 30 pips above the high of the pin bar

• Would have loved to see the pin bar close more bullish

Remitu

[Forex_School_Online]

@Yumei

I took long position when the PB was formed, the Price still in support area, hope that it will hit TP in next 2 candles. CADJPY D1 chart.

You have not entered yet have you?

[Forex_School_Online]

@Yumei

I took long position when the PB was formed, the Price still in support area, hope that it will hit TP in next 2 candles. CADJPY D1 chart.

You have not entered yet have you?

[Yumei]

You have not entered yet have you?

I entered already, Please advise if any… should we nedd to concern about the Friday?