Forex Price Action

[EternalNewB]

I totally understand and I look forward to reading the discussion to learn how to analyse

[bigcheefer30]

@Kasravi

You know, there are trade ideas from time to time that we all agree on, and it almost always plays out.
If memory serves me there was that latest 2br usd/chf short trade or that huge pin bar on Gbp/Cad 4 hourly chart or those gold trades mostly also posted by Johnathon himself.

Hence, like in politics trading PA is better in a group rather than being a lone wolf.

Cheers.

There are 3 recent candles which all broke through that .84 level, leaving their wicks exposed. I understand the emotions of wicks, but of all the superior A+ setups I’ve seen, 98% of them have price contained neatly within previous support. Although you can place a pretty tight stop right above .84, I just can’t be certain that this one will play out. Definitely going to keep my eye on it though to see what happens.

[EternalNewB]

NZD/USD Daily I see a BUEEB price close just above S/R

[adamjn]

Hi Adam,

Let’s have a In-depth discussion about this setup,

Why does it have to go higher?
Didn’t it move back to where that bearishcandle started?
What you recon?

Well, just from looking at the H6 chart, it is a solid downtrend, lower lows and lower highs, but, as Johno posted a while back, draw S/R lines on the daily chart, so that is what I do.

I am not sure why it would move back up to the move upward again would happen, but from watching other pairs, a break or support usually results in price going lower, then moving back up to test the support level it just broke, though on this pair, there is a lot of close by S/R levels, so I am not really 100% sure, maybe you can explain your thoughts?

Here is my analysis:

It hit the 0.8400 level on the 02.04.13 and 06.05.13 and it held, now it is through it, making it resistance, so a move higher may not be in order, I was thinking 0.84713 to look for shorts at, but as of now, it doesn’t really look like it is going to be able to reach that level, so the pin on the H6 looks like a valid setup, wick is 3 times the length of body, sticks out from other price action, seems to be a swing high and closes within the previous candle making it valid in my books.

Thanks,
Adam

[Kasravi]

There are 3 recent candles which all broke through that .84 level, leaving their wicks exposed. I understand the emotions of wicks, but of all the superior A+ setups I’ve seen, 98% of them have price contained neatly within previous support. Although you can place a pretty tight stop right above .84, I just can’t be certain that this one will play out. Definitely going to keep my eye on it though to see what happens.

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

In other words you are saying it in a noisy area.
Did I understand you right?

Cheers

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

@EternalNewB

NZD/USD Daily I see a BUEEB price close just above S/R

This does not look like a valid BUEEB on my chart.

[EternalNewB]

This does not look like a valid BUEEB on my chart.

care to tell me why ?

[Kasravi]

Well, just from looking at the H6 chart, it is a solid downtrend, lower lows and lower highs, but, as Johno posted a while back, draw S/R lines on the daily chart, so that is what I do.

I am not sure why it would move back up to the move upward again would happen, but from watching other pairs, a break or support usually results in price going lower, then moving back up to test the support level it just broke, though on this pair, there is a lot of close by S/R levels, so I am not really 100% sure, maybe you can explain your thoughts?

Here is my analysis:

It hit the 0.8400 level on the 02.04.13 and 06.05.13 and it held, now it is through it, making it resistance, so a move higher may not be in order, I was thinking 0.84713 to look for shorts at, but as of now, it doesn’t really look like it is going to be able to reach that level, so the pin on the H6 looks like a valid setup, wick is 3 times the length of body, sticks out from other price action, seems to be a swing high and closes within the previous candle making it valid in my books.

Thanks,
Adam

I totally agree with drawing s/r based on a daily chart, which is still 0.8400.

You are putting it right by saying ‘’ a break of support usually results in price going lower, then moving back up to test the support level it just broke". well didn’t that just happen?

Cheers.

[Kasravi]

NZD/USD Daily I see a BUEEB price close just above S/R

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

Well done, it is actually a BUEB.
Nonetheless I’m afraid as far as being taught in here that setup serves as a reversal not breakout or continuation.
Sorry mate,but we are at a clear swing high on nzd/usd.
Cheers

[Matthgm]

[QUOTE=“Kasravi;534911”]

That pair is somewhat at a critical level,Eternalnewb.
I suggest we discuss it here and come to a conclusion why we should or shouldn’t take it.

We have all the same information in terms of PA setup validation. What I seek for is not a gut feeling telling you to trade or to stay on the side line, but rather a sophisticated analysis from all Peers.
If I may suggest so.

Cheers[/QUOTE]

Great idea Kas, I’m a bit tied up at work this week but I’ll definitely be chipping in once I clear the decks!!

[Kasravi]

Great idea Kas, I’m a bit tied up at work this week but I’ll definitely be chipping in once I clear the decks!!

Looking forward to it buddy.

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

care to tell me why ?

In order for a plan to come together, does the bullish engulfing bar not need to engulf the previous bar?

[EternalNewB]

Well done, it is actually a BUEB.
Nonetheless I’m afraid as far as being taught in here that setup serves as a reversal not breakout or continuation.
Sorry mate,but we are at a clear swing high on nzd/usd.
Cheers

WoW very important remark ! Yes true it has to be a reversal not continuation setup added to the checklist thanks

[bigcheefer30]

@Kasravi

In other words you are saying it in a noisy area.
Did I understand you right?

Cheers

Pretty much…I’m watching this on the D1 chart, and there is no doubting the fact that .84 is a key level, and was previously broken. The right thing to do is look to go short, but, I just don’t see the signal on the time frame I’m most comfortable trading. Momentum was moving up after market open on Sunday, tried to push through, but got suffocated. This is most likely a tradeable position, but not one that I’m willing to take right now.

[Kasravi]

Pretty much…I’m watching this on the D1 chart, and there is no doubting the fact that .84 is a key level, and was previously broken. The right thing to do is look to go short, but, I just don’t see the signal on the time frame I’m most comfortable trading. Momentum was moving up after market open on Sunday, tried to push through, but got suffocated. This is most likely a tradeable position, but not one that I’m willing to take right now.

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

I respect that totally that you want to stay in your comfort zone.
(doesn’t mean that you back off discussing it though)

It is a trade based on a H6 pin bar, why are you looking at the daily chart?

Cheers

[Mr_B_A_Barracus]

Well done, it is actually a BUEB.
Nonetheless I’m afraid as far as being taught in here that setup serves as a reversal not breakout or continuation.
Sorry mate,but we are at a clear swing high on nzd/usd.
Cheers

I am clearly not grasping these concepts, I thought a BUEB was supposed to at least engulf the previous bar like this bad boy:

I will have to go back to making those bloody snicker adverts…

[EternalNewB]

I respect that totally that you want to stay in your comfort zone.
(doesn’t mean that you back off discussing it though)

It is a trade based on a H6 pin bar, why are you looking at the daily chart?

Cheers

Usually in these setups price go lower than the level from which it has retracted right ? I mean the retrace is just a break before it pushes even lower or I got the idea wrong ?

[EternalNewB]

I am clearly not grasping these concepts, I thought a BUEB was supposed to at least engulf the previous bar like this bad boy:

http://www.forexschoolonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/be1.png

I will have to go back to making those bloody snicker adverts…

In my book it is engulfing (wick and shadow included)

[Kasravi]

I am clearly not grasping these concepts, I thought a BUEB was supposed to at least engulf the previous bar like this bad boy:

http://www.forexschoolonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/be1.png

I will have to go back to making those bloody snicker adverts…

hey Barracus,
(didn’t know you’re in the commercial indusrty)

Essentially you want an engulfing bar to engulf it’s previous bar tremendously.
But as far as I concern 1 pip above and below prev. candle is enough to call it an engulfing bar.

Hope that helps.

Cheers.

[Kasravi]

Usually in these setups price go lower than the level from which it has retracted right ? I mean the retrace is just a break before it pushes even lower or I got the idea wrong ?

If it is a retrace then , at least your are looking for price to move back from where it retraced from.
A potential breakout is very much anticipated though.

Cheers.