I’m talking about the setups most traders took here overnight and got stopped out…
Personally I think the reason the GBPJPY & EURJPY plays didn’t work is because they weren’t formed at significant levels, that’s also why I didn’t play them despite them being excellent setups. If you look at both these charts on the daily (which is where we mark S/R levels from) you will clearly see this. I have attached my charts with my S/R levels marked where I’d look to make plays from.
this is the level on my chart, however the level having no huge different i guess, wait to buy this pair to make decent profit!
Hi Johnathon
How do I determine that the market has significantly pulled back?
True BigCheefer,
When i think now carefully why i take long position i figure out that P.B form in nowhere
My lines is
Support 132.79 , Resistance 134
And the P.B. not even close to support line (Close of P.B is 133.43 )
looks like i will write all rules on my hand so before open any new trade check my list :53:
…wish you chimed in…lol
This is probably it. I thought that the GBP/JPY was a bit more tricky because the 158.30 level had only been tested once recently but I believed that the EUR/JPY was better because the 133.20 level had been tested around 22 May as well which should have made it more solid.
Anyway, if we stay disciplined, there is no reason why we won’t recover from this loss and even make profit at the end of the day.
Yves
I like what you said, i might just take this trade at that entry point of 132.79 on the eurjpy.
Anyone on this too?
I didn’t take this one as I don’t have that pair. PM me if you need the trader 3000 at any point.
If you do a study into retail traders you will find out that most of the time they are on the wrong side of the trade. Statistics tell us that most retail traders are on the wrong side of a trade most of the time. On gold as it slid from 1700 to 1300, at times there were 3 or 4 times as many traders long as were short. The same with the AUDUSD slide that happened over the last couple months, there was a tremendous number of retailers who went long… all… the… way… down, haha. The reason is most traders are looking for trend reversals, so they open up positions against the trend hoping to make the big bucks. I would put little to no weight into what % of traders are long/short.
This had me laughing so hard!
Hi,
here is my opinion to EURJPY 4H trade.
For me definetely good trade because:
There is no reason why not use S/R lines from 4H chart if you trade on 4H chart
4H chart shows up trend (higher highs, higher lows) and if you look at price action … it is obvious: break though last high … pullback … PB. Everything fits together.
So for me definetely good trade.
You cannot ignore this significant level on 4H chart only because your support from 1D chart is lower. First what you probably do if you wait for pullback on support from 1D chart 132.2 will be “oh there is resistance near here on 4H chart at 133.3” but with your logic you can’t look at this level because it is not significant on 1D chart.
With this logic there is obvious question. Do you use S/R lines from weekly chart if you trade on 1D charts??? Probably not. So why use this system if you trade on 4H charts. I don’t say that it is bad to look at S/R lines from higher timeframes but if you trade on 4H char you MUST look what is on 4H chart.
I definetely disagree that it was trade from no man’s land.
Just my opinion … maybe I am completely wrong.
Cheers
I had split my risk between both EURJPY and GBPJPY. I still believe this was an A+ trade. The trade was good enough that it almost instantly stood out and I was having a really hard time finding anything negative to keep me from taking it. If a similar setup presented itself again I would absolutely take it. When a pair is moving in a strong trend it can get into “uncharted” territory, or get into prices it hasn’t been in for months or years. That’s when you use the previous daily levels as best you can to find the strongest support levels. It was intra-day which always add a little bit to risk, best as intra-day trades go it was near perfect in my book.
The best methods lose at times! You never know what trade is going to be a loser or how many losers you will have in a row. Don’t convince yourself that losing a trade means the method doesn’t work, or the signal was bad. It’s always good to go back and review failed trades, but sometimes good setups fails. The same way bad setups can be successful. I think most people in here realize if you stick to the rules you can have a 60-80% win rate if following Mr. J’s method, but these same people are surprised and in shock when they lose a trade. I never understood that, because if you accept a 60-80% win rate you are accepting the fact that you will lose 20-40% of your trades.
I’m never upset when I lose a trade taking a good setup, I only get upset when I lose because I broke the rules.
If it’s going to take you a few wins to make up from 1 loss then I can tell you risked way to much. If you risk a reasonable amount, say 1 or 2% per trade, most good setups can net you 1-2 times your risk, then it only takes 1 winner to make back your loss. I usually shoot for a 1:2 RR so 1 winner makes up 2 losers.
Hi,it is indeed an interesting tool and i know that some other forums has that too. People can definitely go take a look!
However i just want to remind everyone that its one thing thats interesting but PLEASE do not base your trade on that unless you have your own set of Strict rules and follow it strictly where sentiment is one of the factor in the Rule. If not, you are to place trade STRICTLY based on what is taught here. This method has been tested thousand of times by FSO according to Johnathon, place trade based on additional info such as News, sentiments etc will only interfere the HIGH success rate of the method and if it goes wrong, you will think that “Oh, actually PA is not that good after all”, but the truth is, you bend the rules of this method yourself. This is very important.
The truth is, which everyone may not agree, this is an A+ setup that TOTALLY WORKED as it suppose to. The price is suppose to stall at that area and possibly reverse.
This is the setup and its relevant FTA that i have marked after i saw the setup, however i did not trade it because i dont trade 4HR.
There is actually an significant BRN 134.00 level that has been tested several times and also BRN are areas where people usually TP. I put my TP 5 pip below the BRN and i marked 10% + BE, so if i were to trade that, it already hit my first TP and i already moved my SL to BE which will definitely seal the deal on this one. What im saying is it may be your MM you need to work on probably? im not sure about others but im more conservative in MM therefore, it is safer for me.
I would like to clarify this because i think this is very important. Yes, we do trade 4HR/8HR and whatever timing according to Daily S/R. However, we also mark S/R on 4HR even on 1HR( NOT RECOMMENDED) and trade according to it. Guys, if you have been reading the thread, you will know that Johnathon has posted several trades thats SOLELY BASED on 4HR TF or 1HR TF(AGAIN, NOT RECOMMENDED). The principle of those intraday trades are the same as what we trade on daily but Johnathon recommended to only trade them after we have mastered DAILY. Therefore it is not wrong to trade other INTRA day timeframe. However before that, please give yourself at least 3 months(which i think not enough) to 6 months to prove that you are profiting in trading Daily chart before you move into Intra day chart because you have more factors to consider such as trading time(NY open or London open) etc.
Guys this is very important, if you think you are not familiar, please read the thread again and again. I myself STRONGLY RECOMMEND you read more than HALF of this whole thread especially those who think that after afew hundred pages of reading you know how this works already.
Im not very senior here like dudest, bhops, spongy and some others but i think the way we are heading are very misleading.
Jack
I agree with everything you said. But it’s important to note that this actually the daily high also, so even traders setting your S/R on daily had the same level. The pair have been making new 3 year highs on a regular basis, the most logical levels to place your S/R levels are your daily highs, and your previous price swings. It’s the same thing we saw a few weeks back when the EURAUD was setting new multi year highs. Johnathon pointed out that when pairs are trending that strong price doesn’t always pull back way down to those key levels. In which case I am watching just for previous daily highs which are usually swing highs on the lower timeframe.
[QUOTE=“Kasravi;539542”] Anyone on this too?[/QUOTE]
I am also in usdnok
I think most people realize this but I want to remind everyone there is an inherent amount of extra risk when trading a timeframe lower than daily. And that risk increases the lower the timeframe you go.
Krugman’s latest few post were really essential, well done mate.
Just to recap:
We don’t care about sentiment, the majority is mostly wrong anyway.
We draw our S/R lines based on daily and most recent swings.
Not all trades play out but when they do we clean up big time.
Lower time frames could emerge more delicate at times.
Cheers.