There is also another option which can be good: Trailing stops instead of BE, it secures some profit and allows the chance for a much bigger one.
I didnât take this one because I decided to stick to daily for now. Glad it is playing out well for you
Is there any good approach to trailing stop ? I mean that if you move it too close it will eventually get hit no ?
This is the closest thing I have read about trailing SL is that what you are referring to ?
Well, of course they have a good chance to be hit but that puts you in a situation in between BE and manual close at a certain point. I am not a TS expert but I usually use the amount of pips of a small retracement on a trend or I calculate the amount of pips to the latest potential support zone. The good thing being that you can make even more pips than your planned TP because if it goes on without dropping by the amount of pips selected, your profit can be bigger than the TP.
I would suggest you try it on demo on your next A+ setup and observe how it behaves.
Yves
Hi,
you are right. I agree that PA on 1D chart are definetely more reliable than on 4H chart. On the other side I suggest him to trade on demo account. If you trade for real money I agree that you must start trading on 1D charts even if you are profitable on lower time frames on demo account. I never use lower time frames than 4H. M1 charts are out of discussion.
What I want to say is this (I play poker a lot so I think that I know something little about statistics ):
If someone say that you should trade 1D charts for 3 months and if you are profitable you should try real money i canât agree with that. How many trades can I make during 3 months on 1D timeframes??? 20-30??? I donât know. But it is not a lot. Someone said that A+ trades are successful in 90%. Again I donât think it is true. It can be 65-70%??? It is of course great number but it mean that you stop in loss 3-4 times in 10 trades. After 20-30 trades you can say nothing about your trading. You can be in profit you can have gain in 25 trades but it can be hot run. You can have 25 loosing trades but it can be only draw down. You cannot know if you are good trader or not. Only one reason why I suggest him trade demo is that he destroyed his account during few hours. If he had 10 losing trades in row I never suggest him trade demo because I and noone can say certainly that he is bad trader.
In poker if you know that your winning probability is 55% (you can do nothing with it, it is not about cards or your skills, you know that you should win in 55% cases) you must play 1000 games and after 1000 games you win 550(+/-10) with probability 95%. It mean that in 5% you can be losing after 1000 games even if you know that you should win 55% games.
Saying after 30-40 trades that you are good or bad trader is bold statement.
Trades 1D charts next 2-3 years and then you should know quite accurately what is your winning %. Of course on 1D TF your winning probability is higher and you need less trades to reach your winning edge but it is still much more than 40 trades. Trading lower TF isnât solution but on demo can be definetely usefull ⌠there is no problem to look at your results separately so why waste your time and donât try lower TF on demo account. There is no risk if you are profitable on 1D charts in demo ⌠go trade 1D charts live and you can still trade lower TF on demo and if you are comfortable with lower TF go trade them live.
So forex trading is in some way much more risky than poker because you donât know what is your winning edge for few years if you trade 1D TF. And that is why you must have great MM and good R:R in your trade. You must try to eliminate this statistical disadvantage. That is why MM is so important.
Sorry it is horrible english :8:
Cheers
Bambi
I should have taken this pin bar which formed yesterday, I canât see anything wrong with it, I feel that I am becoming too cautious after losing those two trades this week, playing with scared money I need to give myself a talking to.
sometimes lowering your pip value helps to trade and regain confidence back.
Hi Bambino,
There are things you are comparing that donât go together.
This is off topic but good to know.
In poker you wait out for the table to show weakness and then strike with high calls,or you have a good hand and go with it.
Just to clarify that if you play it in any other way you are doomed to loose when playing against pros.
But about the 3 month trial period trading solely on D1. I must say if you get into 30 trades then you are over trading!!!And not taking A+ setups. Average youâll catch 4-5 trades per month and they are 90% accurate.(last month I posted an analysis of johnathonâs PA setups that he publishes from time to time and the results are mind blowing!!!)
Demo trading is very important. However folks if you think you cannot take demo trading serious (like myself) there is no harm in trading live with a micro account. Essentially money you can afford to spare whilst maintaining money management and staying loyal to your strategy,can go a long way.
Donât question the psychology behind good Johnathonâs PA trading,rather question on how to stay in the zone and picking the very best of trades.
Cheers
Hi,
not sure that you should take yesterday PB. It is not a good PB. Donât know if we are talking about same PB.
Moreover, some pairs generate no more than 1 or 2 A+ signals on the daily throughout the year!!!
That is why we watch them all. Not trading is sometimes more difficult than you might think.
D1 trading means you check your charts once a day. Not the whole day.
(trade management excluded)
Cheers
Hi,
thanks for reply. i donât agree but that is fine. Donât believe that newbie can have successful 90% even if he trade 1D TF and trade 3 months on demo. 90% can have Jonathon because he trades many years. Sometimes if I look at his charts it is not always clear A+ setup. If I post same setup here there will be lot of comments. There is almost always âbutâ (there is resistance, counter trend, smaller PB than usuall but for Jonathon still valid) there is to many âbutâ and newbie cannot reach 90% successful. Maybe some of you yes but I think it is exception.
All I want so say is that even if have 90% probability doesnât mean that you win next 9 trades and loss only one.
Cheers
Another attempt at learning to read
Portion of USD/JPY Daily chart
First 2 BR setup followed by inside bars the next couple of days
My interpretation market is building momentum and break out will be bigger
Since the 2BR was bullish chances are the burst will be bullish
Am I warmer ?
God damn broker app wouldnât let me close my long EUR/NZD trade last night when I saw it stalling at the 1.64 BRN. in hindsight shouldnât of gone long but if i was able to close trade i would of made 60 pips. now its wipsawed and hit my S/L for-70 pips.
Anyway after reviewing this trade the EZ looks to be forming a 2BR at a major support with the trend which is short.
Depends how the pair play out today.
What do you all think?
Just a heads up Eternal the USD/JPY has been forming a massive pennant on the daily and weekly charts which i have been monitoring for weeks. think its going to major break soon. not sure which way but when it does well⌠£££
Just waiting for the PA to enter
I am short from the H8 pinbar on Eur/Nzd.
There is still a big portion of the day left to call a setup,but considering that pair broke out of the range to the downside and now pulled back and found resistance . Then there is very well the option of a high probability trade once a setup presence itself.
Good advice Tonyro44 I think this is the way to go!
Hey Bambino, It was actually the other pin right next to the 2BR which I posted yesterday.
A nice engulfing pin has formed on the EURGBP 4hr, the downside is that it is against the trend.
Thank you
No $$$ for me since I am on demo but what do you think of my interpretation ? I mean do I see it right at least?