Forex Price Action

If anyone here trades the H1 chart, a nice BUEB has formed at a swing point on Gold.

I know Johno trades the H1 sometimes, but have never seen anyone post about it here…


Seeing some good rotation on USDCHF:



After the FOMC announcement, price plummeted through the key level of .917. There is a tight consolidation right now where price is bouncing between 40+/- points. 4th to last candle on the 4hr chart tried to break to the downside, but buyers stepped in quickly and followed up with 3 bullish (but small) candles up.

It’ll be interesting to see who regains control here. I’d say most corrections have occurred (post-FOMC) already.

Flowchart? Bullet list?

Folks, I have seen fellow traders made their trade plan using Power Point, Prezi, Flash, until Video selfie(!). Do whatever you need to stick to your rule, no matter how silly it looks. :wink:

Well that,s a sweet A+ setup but after reading johno,s article about “how to manage trades using price action” i decided to cut my losses short after the occurrence of the rejection candle .I am only a trend trader and a range trader and i don,t trade against the trend because my current experience don’t allow me to do so.So from this loss i derived the two reasons…
1)Losses are inevitable and even A+trades turn out to be loosers ,the same happened with EURCAD D1 TRADE or EURJPY H4 trade .
2)The trend direction for EURCAD was unclear because the long term market momentum was up and also the BEEB was also formed a bit higher ,means price made a new high.So in future i should only take the trades where the trend is clearly visible.

Finally i have a quick question
As we are only concerned with the recent market momentum and we look for Pa signals on the kill zones ,if the price breaks through the very recent tested support area then it,s a down trend and if the price breaks through the tested resistance area then it,s the uptrend ,regardless of the overall longer term trend picture on the chart ?Is my definition of what makes the up or down trend is right?

Most people will agree (as is preached here) that markets are rarely trending in the “conventional” manner (i.e. perfect higher highs, and lower lows). Especially because some trends carry a ton of momentum behind them, and if we’re looking at time frames such as the daily we may not be able to find the proper entry point- price may not pull back enough to throw the signals we look for.

I wouldn’t define a trend based solely one whether or not S/R has held or been broken. Most markets range, and being able to read these ranges is crucial. There are articles all over forexschoolonline talking about this, so check that out.

There is a wealth of knowledge and I recommend reading all these articles: Forex Price Action Trading Strategies | Forex School Online. You’ll be eons ahead of the next guy that comes around looking to learn…

Wow, this thread is accelerating so fast, I feel that we should have Johnathon rename this thread into Forex Price Action - Fast and Furious. :smiley:

Okay, you do raise an interesting issue there. We actually have that kind of discussion just a few pages before. Having A+ setup is just one part of equation. You also need to work on your trade management if you want to survive in this kind of business. Krugman once argued that different traders can see the same trade setup, but that does [B]NOT[/B] guarantee all of us will end up with profit. Depending on your MM, you can end up with profit, BE, or even full loss(!).

This is something that we at FSO learn as member that for obvious reasons we cannot share freely outside it. However, dudest fully encourages you guys to discuss your own MM whenever you encounter A+ trade setups here. That’s one of the reasons why I love Forex world. [B]Meritocracy[/B] really works in Forex as only those with great MM will survive in the long run, while the others will simply crash and burn.

BTW, your suggestion to use lower timeframe others than D1? You forgot one important reason why Johnathon discourages newbie to trade lower tf. The signals there are less reliable and infested with noises, and it can be confusing when you see A+ setups seem to fail so often there. To put this into perspective, which one do you think is more likely to work most of the time? Pinbar on D1 chart, or pinbar on M1 chart?

Cheers!
~Willy

I see the rationale behind this, and definitely agree with the rhetorical answer that the latter would not “work out” as often as the former. I think it all depends on your trading strategy and how long you plan to remain in a position. Trading a 1 hour chart, I’d argue that you’d be scalping and not looking to remain open for more than a day or so. So, you can technically see 3 or 4 PB’s form around a key level defined on a D1 chart, each of which sending signals to short-term traders that a level is being respected.

I think the consensus prevails here though as you mention- no need to go beneath a 4 hour chart. It’s crude, basic, and so obvious, but I always think about it like this: a D1 candle is 24 1 hour candles…I used to trade 15M and 30M setups…The transition to the D1 is one of the most liberated sensations of my entire life. The stress is just not worth it, especially because I feel like you’re going up against complex algorithms capable of watching price like a hawk and executing trades instantly.

Thanks, bc.

Even H4 chart is not tradeable all the time. Just a simple logic actually. For example, will you trust the PA signals for EURUSD at H4 chart when all big banks in European and American region are close and most traders there are sleeping? Nah, I don’t think so.

Hey gd job on this one!

Damn the thread moves so fast when im asleep…

[QUOTE=“wm247;540969”]Thanks, bc. Even H4 chart is not tradeable all the time. Just a simple logic actually. For example, will you trust the PA signals for EURUSD at H4 chart when all big banks in European and American region are close and most traders there are sleeping? Nah, I don’t think so. [/QUOTE]

I’ll take a trade at any time of day regardless who is sleeping or not lol.

If the proper pa signal presents itself, and I’m able to get a good read on what price has been doing, coupled with a key level being tested and trading with the trend…I’m in if It’s 2am on a Tuesday night. Thats the thing, price won’t move and produce those big signals we like unless the larger players are in the market and orders are being filled.

Yes he did trade 1 Hr chart but rarely. Most of his trades are Daily trades.
We dont post because 4Hr chart is already very difficult not to mention Hourly chart.

Hey, wm is right, he seems to learn a lot more after joining FSO and i can see he worked hard in learning this PA method by reading all the old posts. Maybe you think that his post may be a bit offensive but what he said is true. For intraday setups, TIME is a CRUCIAL factor and heavy weight in deciding if a setup is tradable.

Cheers

Jack

No, it’s because the candles are not large enough for me to trade against the recent uptrend. No enough to make me feel like I would have a significant edge in the trade.

Great post, very informative! I know I will personally try and discuss money management more as trades present themselves, and I hope others do the same. With the money management struggles that new traders tend to deal with, I think it would be extremely helpful if we all included it in our trade setup discussions.

Price rotates up and down and that’s how we get swing highs and swing lows, which should not be a new term to anyone here. Price is always in 2 states, trending and ranging. In a ranging pair price just swings back and fourth inside of a price box. You can usually open your chart and draw a big box around price as it rotates “sideways”.

In a trend, each successive swing in price goes higher and higher or lower and lower, depending on the trend. If you go back a few pages I posted a picture of the GBPCAD which has now made 6 of those higher highs and higher lows. Once the HHs and HL or LH and LLs stop happening, that means the trend is potentially coming to an end.

Sometimes people make a trade thinking the currency is ranging, and it really is trending, and they accidently end up trading against the trend. It’s important to know if your pair is ranging or trending because it helps you understand the risk and how to manage your trade. If trends are something you have a hard time identifying I believe Johnathon has some articles about it, or just google it, there is plenty of good information out there.

That explanation was supper clear Kruman25.

[QUOTE=“bigcheefer30;539497”]I just noticed something about the GBPJPY and EURJPY setups. We draw our S/R zones via the Daily chart, and these two trades were found on the 4hr.

I think I was so gung-ho to jump on board with everyone, that as I look back at these two setups, I see that the 4hr PB’s were actually nowhere near my original lines drawn on my D1 charts…

GBPJPY- Draw a line @ 156.720 on the D1 chart, then look @ the 4hr…
EURJPY- Draw a line @ 133.811 on the D1 chart, then look @ the 4hr…

Tell me if you would have taken those two trades now???[/QUOTE]

If I’d looked back at your post and it had my name as the OP, I could well have believed it as I feel exactly the same on these 2. I got sucked in on a wave of optimism and should never have got involved .

These 2 plus another give me 3 losses in a row so having the rest of the week off to reflect & recharge. I’ll start again with my weekly routine on Sunday.

Hi All,
I think that post got buried with the other chart, what you reckon?

If memory serves me it was about 2 weeks ago when I posted a Eur/Nzd H12 pinbar chart. However my support line was lower than what peers suggested,long story short it was a no trade.After a long range on that pair price eventually hammered through the bottom of the range.

Price has found a new support and pulled back to former bottom of the range at 1.6400. I was looking on all timeframes for a setup to form at the now resistance line and level of high interest.

EUR/NZD H8 PINBAR


If price manages to break the low of that pinbar which comes at 1.6350, next support would come at 1.6250. Trading this setup would position us inline with recent downward pressure.Moreover we would be trading from a swing high at a Key resistance level.

Thanks for reading.

Cheers

Bringing that up again in case it was missed because I am trying to learn what to do in such a situation ?

Hi all,

For those who want to follow my trade. On Aud/jpy, I moved SL to BE on both positions to be on the safe side. Setup appeared on H8 (Pinbar) but I can’t open it as I don’t have the little tool installed at work.