Forex Price Action

Nice one Yumie! This has started a move lower for you. Would you say there are any areas on the way down that could possibly act as trouble areas for this trade?

Great clean chart with a super solid old resistance/new support level highlighted.

Yes weekly charts can be the bees knees! You can get some of the best pin bars ever on the weeklyā€™s!

Hi John,

on AUDCAD weekly chart, I think the first trouble area is around 0.9540, this is my TP1, TP2 is around 0.9360. but still have some small trouble on daily chart like 0.972, 0.964, but my trade set on weekly chart, so i dont care too much of trouble on daily.

Heya Will,

overall thinking seams pretty much there, just a few thingsā€¦

Firstly your daily AUDNZD levels are spot on. Keep in mind though you could be looking for a breakout lower and then pullback. Now I have read further through the thread and what you have said in this post is 100% correct! We never ever want to get caught in the middle of ranges making trades. We either want to get long from the bottom or short from the top or we want to let price break out, pull back and then jump in, but making entries in the middle is super dangerous. Price can whipsaw anywhere and there are multiple levels.

GBPJPY - KEEP IN MIND THE VBRN! You have said price has broken out of 159.50. What about 160.00 These are huge and must be taken into account. You can see that this VBRN has been respected with this break out level and has to be taken into account and on my chart is exactly where my level sits. When marking your levels always have a look at any round number that may be around.

EURJPY seams fine.

Johnathon


usdsek daily

Yep, that will become my Monday morning occupation. I actually understand why some people would only trade weekly PA action!

Thanks

ā€¦ and Monthly PA! Itā€™s in my trade plan. :smiley:

Hi jonathon, tooke the trade. when price moved past 1.46 i moved my stop losses to BE. got stopped out for small gain. wish I took my money off the table before the GBP CPI was announced. But to be honest havenā€™t been checking fundementals out. Iā€™m start to again but only to avoid trading.

Cheers

Darth

Weekly is where I draw the line and it is rare that I trade weekly. Monthly is a massive no, no for me and to be honest what is the point? You literally could be waiting years for a trade to work out watching rollover rates eat away your profits.

You could wait a month or even three before being triggered into a trade and then six or more for it to work out. Waiting weeks is barely okay and I will do it for really killer trades occasionally because some really killer trades can be found and the interest is not that bad, but other than that the vast majority of my trading is kept to daily, 8hr, 4hr etc because I am not going to wait for months on end.

The other thing is if you are trading monthly a lot of the platforms donā€™t have the required data on the monthly charts to zoom out to get accurate levels & trends, which means trying to analyse anything becomes impossible.

Anyways just my take of course and as I always say there is many ways to skin a cat and many ways to do things. The poor old cat would not have much left of him now! :39:

Johnathon

The worst thing you could do for your trading is start mixing news with price. You just need to be a little smart about what you are doing.

When you enter a market that is clearly ranging and has been whipping all over the place you are not going to manage the same as what you would for what you would a trend trade. Where as in a trend trade you could manage with a little more room because price has been moving in the one direction more strongly and not whipping all over the place, when price is ranging and whipping like the GBPCHF has been you have to take this into account.

If we look at how price has behaved after your BEEB and it has behaved [U][B]exactly[/B][/U] the same as how it has behaved for the past months; it has moved lower and into a near term support and then moved back higher. It has no clear direction either way and is just bouncing in between minor levels as we would expect with these types of markets.

Basically just take into account the market you are entering when taking the trade as this forms part of the price action story!

Johnathon

I know not to trade into trouble areas since reading many of the posts here but Iā€™ve learned another lesson today. [B]Be vigilant and APPLY what Iā€™ve learned.[/B]

In my haste to put into practice the things Iā€™ve learned, I took a trade that I really shouldnā€™t have. Iā€™m hoping that I can share the mistakes and successes I have so that it may help others perusing this thread in attempt to learn.


[I]You can click this image for the full sized version of the chart[/I]

if you want to be pro-active, check saturday/sunday and free your monday up :wink:

darth

Can one of the experienced PA traders post an image with proper S/R lines on daily USDJPY chart??? Thanks in advance

S/R lines drawn on Daily chart. ā€œPossibleā€ BEEB seen on H8 chart and will need to see how candle closes. I do however think that the area to the left with the clustering of candles could pose a significant issue.

Opinions appreciated :slight_smile:


[I][B]Click to see larger version of chart[/B][/I]

Thanks for your input, It is hard to get a feel for a pair when your trading nearly everyone one of them that your broker offers but that will come in time I guess. To add I wontā€™ be trading news by my comment I just meant that I will stay away from a pair that has some major news happening in the short term or set S/L at BE to be on the safe side.

Thanks again

Darth

Sorry, Coach. I should have made it clear about it. I believe Price Action in Monthly chart works, but there are some modifications in my trade plan.

  1. S/R zone becomes more important than ever.
  2. Swap or rollover is a serious matter when you consider Monthly tf. Taking Monthly trade setup when the swap is negative is [B]a massive no no[/B]. However, [B]consider taking it when the swap is positive[/B]. Imagine staying in the trade for months or years and you get paid in daily basis while doing nothing when your trade is open! I believe thatā€™s the basic idea of carry trade. :smiley:
  3. With Monthly trade all set, taking Weekly trade setup on the same or correlated pair is [B]a massive no no[/B] as Weekly tf is too close to Monthly tf. However, I have no problem to take Daily tf and lower tf for the same or correlated pair. So itā€™s virtually business as usual for swing trading. :wink:

But then again, this is clearly something you do not condone in this thread, so Iā€™ll restrain myself to discuss this further and Iā€™ll continue the discussion in separate thread. I have discussed this very issue with Krugman some time before, so anybody here can reach me there at Krugmanā€™s thread if you also have similar interest in PA at Monthly tf.

Hey Guys :slight_smile:

First of all Iā€™d like to say: Great and fascinating thread! I am through the index from the first page for the first time now. I hope you wont mind if I post some questions about quite old posts?

But first I would like to put up this setup from EURNZD H8:


Any thoughts on this one?

My thoughts are:
ā€“ pinbar looks big compared to last 5 or 6 candles (big enough?)
ā€“ Level hold as support several times
ā€“ EDIT: Round Number
ā€“ FTA imo is about 50-60 Pips away. Not very much but after that there is quite some space
ā€“ The action before our Signal was not ā€œover-bearishā€. Quite small candles with not much power

Cheers

The market is in range, so enter the trade at the midle is supper dangerous.

good post, as Iā€™m only running mt4 I dont get 8hr chart but think you have a good trade here. all points above are valid i personally would adjust my t/p slightly but thats just personal preference.

Good job

Darth