thank you verymuch buster48.
Thanks a lotā¦
Hi, iām also new, and have been following this thread, but when i seen this setup i had a different view, and thought it wouldnāt do any harm to show my analysis of EURJPY.
iāve actually got this on my watch list
Iām expecting another rally long after the consolidation into daily trend line. at which point ill be looking to go short.
and yes i understand this thread doesnāt use indicators and only price action etc etc.
but thought this was worth seeing from a different perspective.
TBH Iām actually only trading price action using candlesticks and support/resistance.
Grey channel is my trendline zone
silver dashed line is the 20 period moving average, allowing me to quickly identify trends. (saves myself time/confusion)
stochastic and CCI are used together to confirm a swing H/L (helps me avoid retracments),
at which point iād be looking for candle confirmation for entry, providing it lies withing my support/resistance zone.
Anyways hope this help you understand what your looking at from my point of view.
to me it looks like your entry will run long, but doubt it will reach your first TP.
Again this is just an opinion from a newer trader. so take what iām saying with a pinch of salt. i may be competly wrong : )
hope this helps, iāll post a couple trades iām watching.
Here is two with horizontal S/R iāve got my eye on.
both just recently broke the trend and are about to have there first retracements.
confirmation still needed, but worth watching imo.
This is one iām actually trading atm.
Confirmed on daily with Stoch and CCI.
Final confirmation on 1h chart with 3 outside down candle formation breaking the lower resistance threshold.
I also liked the look of this trade, for me it was confirmed with the pinbar at the apex of the swing on the 1h timeframe,
further confirmation was the three inside down before the rally through the lower resistance threshold.
Hello everybody,
i am new here and this is my first post on this thread/forum. i read jhonathon fox website and learnt good knowledge from it. i have some questions gonna post here.
1: For FTR/FTS setups how should we mark the support/resistance? should we include the wicks or should we use the bodies of candles?
2: For normal breakout/pullback setups which minimum timeframe should we use to make a entry when trading daily based setups?
3: How many retests of any broken Support/Resistance can be used?
Seniors please guideā¦
Thanks in advance,
Has
hey jamie, what is pinbar apex and inside down barsā¦ how you define these?
First off it is my opinion that support and resistance is subjective. If you have all of us on here draw the same support line we would all draw it on a different level. Support and resistance is more an area that a exact line. So I use the wicks to the main body as my area.
Also keep in mind that support and resistance lines are just another indicator (am I allowed to use that word here?). There is no indicator that will always be right
2nd I like the daily followed through on the 4 or 1 hour charts personally. Daily IMO is always best to gauge overall market momentum.
- That is a question I simply cant answer. When price enters an area of support and resistance there is no telling if it will hold or not. Some say the more time the area of S/R is tested the stronger it is and I agree to a point but if the area keeps getting tested then to me it is signaling that the market want to break that level. The market usually gets what it wants.
sorry, the pinbar, was at the apex of the swing, iāll correct the post.
feel free to use these if you wish, i made the list from a university study of candle patterns showing the effectivness of each in there given rolls over a fast amount of data.
personally candle patterns only really have merit when around S/R zones and are good for confirmation/entry into trades.
Candle Pattern Ranking
A-Z of Candles
Drawing S/R Zones
i included a very good tutorial on drawing S/R zones, best iāve found so far.
hope this helps
Thanks for your answer bobmanincā¦
you drop down to H4/H1 for all types of setups or only for FTS/FTR?
currently i m waiting for usdcad to form bearish setup todayā¦ to drop down into broken resistance turned support areaā¦
Looking at the 1h hour its just had a retest of resistance.
personally i would look for a better setup or wait and see if it retests again.
your risk/reward is quite low atm.
thanks jamieā¦ for the bar informationā¦
your welcome, went through all this myself not that long ago : )
itās a great feeling when it all starting to come together.
You are in the correct ball park for what I do. Not saying it is inline with this thread but its not far off either. I will show a pretty poor example but its the best I got at the moment.
Here is a daily chart of gold (XAU/USD).
Looking at the chart we are in an area of support (marked by my 3 red circles) and then made a engulfing bar.
Now lets drop down to the 1 hr to see what we might have lurking in the shadows shall we.
Here I can see some ares of support marked by the circle off to the left and the line. As you can see price is back in the area and has formed a pin bar (circle to the right).
Typically thats what I look for. I am passing on this trade for a few reasons.
- price is dropping pretty hard and fast telling me there might be some steam behind it still (however that by itself dont mean a whole lot to lot)
- By looking at the 1 hr chart I can see that the engulfing pattern was caused by what seems to be Non Farm Payrolls release on Friday and could just be noise. I also dont tend to trade engulfing patterns to often but thats just me I tend to get burned by them more than I care to talk about.
- Going back to the daily at that big red circle in the middle there is going to be a lot of hidden resistance levels on other time frames in that area and also I have the small circle to the right and the swing low just before that small red circle. That is far to much resistance in the way, if price was to try and reverse I just dont see it being able to build the steam to break through all that to go north. Leaving me with a pretty poor R:R at best.
It would be IMO better to wait it out and wait for a break out and retest on the daily before deciding any course of action at this point on this pair. I was just trying to show how I view S/R on different timeframes. I just wait for a trade setup and then drop down to a lower timeframe and wait for another trade setup to form. Reason is I can place a stop on the lower time frame and a take profit based off the daily. This tends to give insane R:R. The problem with this method is your stops can (and will) be hit often and usually very quickly. the plus side is if I am going to lose I would rather get it over with quickly and move on instead of waiting for days just to get tagged out anyway. Also the amount I do lose is very small.
Hope that helps a little.
nice explanationā¦
so basically u look for 2 breakout/pullback/retest/continuation setupsā¦
first on daily
second on hourly/h4
obviously its open to debate, but to allow for a 1:2 ratio youād have to place your stop within the resistance area. which imo is bad practise. could literally just be a short retrace, tbh it wouldnāt suprise me if this was the case.
certainly doesnāt stand out as a swing high, considering known resistance zone.
as i said earlyer personally i would wait for another retrace to allow you a higher entry or look for a better trade.
here is an example of what i mean.
if you had took the first early touch of the support and entered the trade, then used a stop within the resistance area, you would have been stopped out as the move hadnāt completed yet.
the example shows that had you been patience and enter on a more favourable position
you would have been able to use a tighter stop outside the support zone, allowing you a much higher Risk/Reward.
Instead of being stopped early with a much lower risk/reward since your forced to have a much larger stop.
there is basically two main ways to increase your risk/reward
- use tigher stops (lowering risk)
- larger pip gains (Increasing Reward)
combining both these will optimize your Risk/Reward, and allow you much higher gains with less risk.
hope this helps.
not basically but exactly. From there I weigh risk, reward, time. Time meaning how long is the trade is expected to take and more importantly in that amount of time is there any news event expected to derail this trade. You will never know for sure but say I have a nice setup a few hours from NFP. I will most likely skip it as I dont know what is likely to unfold.
Overall that a nice concept but there is only one problem with this. it is easy to say oh you should have waited after the chart has printed. In that 15 min chart on that first entry point (in your circle) there was no way of knowing price would go further south untill after the fact. Yes I agree the second chance would have been a better option but you would not have know to wait since price had not painted the chart yet.