GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:
Trading Positions:
EUR/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0470, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0410
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7305, target 0.7500, stop-loss 0.7320
Pending Orders:
EUR/USD trading strategy: buy at 1.1410, if filled target 1.1650, stop-loss 1.1320, risk factor: **
GBP/USD trading strategy: buy at 1.5200, if filled target 1.5400, stop-loss 1.5050, risk factor: **
EUR/GBP trading strategy: buy at 0.7485, if filled target 0.7600, stop-loss 0.7430, risk factor: ***
EUR/JPY trading strategy: buy at 133.50, if filled target 136.40, stop-loss 132.75, risk factor: ***
GBP/JPY trading strategy: buy at 178.10, if filled target 181.40, stop-loss 176.80, risk factor: ***
AUD/NZD trading strategy: sell at 1.0610, if filled target 1.0380, stop-loss 1.0670, risk factor: **
We have inserted ‘risk factor’ to our table to help you manage your portfolio. * means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), ** means medium level of confidence, *** means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)
EUR/USD: Still Bullish Outlook Despite ECB Move On Greek Debt
(our short-term target is 1.1620)
[ul]
[li]The European Central Bank abruptly cancelled its acceptance of Greek bonds in return for funding on Wednesday. Greek government bonds as well as bank bonds guaranteed by Athens will no longer qualify as security in return for ECB funding to those banks. Instead, it will now be up to Greece’s central bank to provide those banks with Emergency Liquidity Assistance, a step it takes at its own risk, separating those banks’ funding problems from the rest of the euro zone.
[/li][li]The EUR lost ground after the ECB’s surprise announcement late on Wednesday, but the reaction to this decision was short-lived. However, our EUR/USD and EUR-crosses (EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY) longs hit their stop-loss levels.
[/li][li]U.S. ISM services index amounted to 56.7 in January, up slightly from a revised 56.5 in December. The reading was better than median forecast of 56.3.
[/li][li]Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who does not vote on Fed policy this year, said the central bank is right to hold off on raising interest rates for now so as not to risk a further and potentially economically costly drop in already low inflation.
[/li][li]Signs of economic recovery in the Euro zone are getting stronger. German industrial orders climbed by 4.2% mom, beating the consensus forecast for a 1.5% rise and hitting their highest level since April 2008. The growth was driven by solid increases in both foreign and domestic demand. Capital and intermediate goods contracts posted strong gains while consumer goods bookings fell. German industrial output data will be released tomorrow in the morning of the European session and are likely to support the EUR bulls.
[/li][li]The European Commission said that the euro zone’s economic prospects are brighter now than they were three months ago thanks to cheaper oil, a weaker euro and the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. The EC raised its forecasts for GDP growth in the Euro zone to 1.3% this year from the 1.1% seen in November and to 1.9% in 2016 from an earlier 1.7%. The Commission forecasts that consumer prices in the Euro zone would fall 0.1% this year, but will then rise by 1.3% in 2016.
[/li][li]Our medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD is unchanged despite yesterday’s ECB decision on Greek debt. We are looking to get long again at 1.1410. Our short-term target is 1.1650, just below resistances of 1.1652 (high Jan 22), and 1.1660 (38.2% of 1.2570-1.1098). We stay bullish also on EUR-crosses.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1534 (high Feb 3), 1.1652 (high Jan 22), 1.1680 (high Jan 21)
Support: 1.1336 (10-dma), 1.312 (low Feb 3), 1.1280 (low Feb 2)
EUR/CHF: Recession Threat Will Weaken The CHF
(long for 1.0700)
[ul]
[li]The Swiss government warned that the appreciation of the country’s currency meant economic growth would be weaker than previously expected but said it was still too difficult to assess how severe the slowdown would be. The Swiss government’s expert group said it would issue new economic forecasts on March 19.
[/li][li]In a separate statement the State Secretariat for Economics said Swiss consumer sentiment index improved to -6 points in the first quarter from -11 points in the fourth quarter of 2014. However, the reading in not worthy indicator now, because more than three quarters of the survey was done before the cap ended.
[/li][li]Let us remind that the KOF Swiss Economic Institute slashed its growth forecast for 2015 to -0.5% from the 1.9% it had predicted in December and said it expects no growth next year, having previously forecast a 2.1% expansion.
[/li][li]Our EUR/CHF long hit the stop-loss at 1.0520 yesterday. We had placed buy order at 1.1470 in our Forex Trading Strategies Summary and it was filled today in the morning European session. In our opinion the EUR/CHF is likely to break above the level of 1.0650 (recovery high on January 15) soon. The short-term target of our EUR/CHF long is 1.0700.
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Source: Forex Trading Strategies