Continued drops in the US Dollar have clearly benefited our trend-following forex trading signals, and a continuation of said downtrend would likely bring further gains. Of course, timing these trend-based systems remains extremely challenging—tantamount to predicting direction in the US Dollar itself. As it stands, our Breakout and Momentum strategies are overwhelmingly short the US currency and will likely remain short until strong reversals.
Short-term trends favor further dollar losses, but longer-term forex volatility expectations suggest that ongoing trends may soon lose steam.
Forex options market volatility expectations show that few expect major moves in the coming months. Though our 1-week implied volatility index gained sharply through last week’s trade, it continues to trend lower and remains near the bottom of its year-to-date range. We will favor Momentum and Breakout strategies for the time being, but we have especially low confidence in our own predictions. Watching the US Dollar remains key.
[B]Forex Trading Automated Systems Outlook[/B]
The US Dollar breakdown greatly benefited Momentum2 and Breakout2 systems—both of which are sitting in sizeable floating profits on USD-short positions. We can only hope that said performance can continue through the near term, but we likewise acknowledge that such periods of strong trend moves are usually met with consolidation. That is to say—currency price moves could slow and we may revert to large trading ranges through the near term. It remains extremely difficult to predict general trend conditions and we take our own forecasts with a grain of salt, but our intuition is to treat Trend and Breakout trades with modest skepticism—especially at the tail-end of strong US Dollar moves.
[B]DailyFX+ Forex Market Conditions Outlook[/B]
[B]NOTE: Data has once again been changed. Due to the ineffectiveness of the 30-day horizon, we are returning to the original 90-day time horizon.[/B]
[B]Volatility Percentile[/B] – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 30 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
[B]Trend[/B] – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 30 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.
[B]Range High[/B] – 90-day closing high.
[B]Range Low[/B] – 90-day closing low.
[B]Last[/B] – Current market price.
[B]Strategy[/B] – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
[I]The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.[/I]