EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has made a sharp turn south today after the ECB announced an, expected, unchanged interest rate. On the 1 Hour chart, we can see that price remains well below the 100 SMA, 50 SMA and 21 EMA but is taking a baby step towards the 21 EMA. The 14,3,3 stochastic oscillator shows quite a bit of noise but is nonetheless pointed up from just underneath the oversold 20% zone. The MACD also indicates an oversold predisposition and is showing a potential cross up.
Although these indicators hint at a bullish rally, the current price action still remains in between the 61.8% Fib line�s price of 1.4591 and the 100% Fib line�s price of 1.4364, threatening a turn in either way in this no-man�s land. Historically, there have been moderate sell-offs over the last two Fridays, and that very same factor may also counter against the technical indicators� upward sentiments.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD took a similar dive in two small waves, the second of which followed a BoE announcement of unchanged interest rates. In the 1 Hour chart below, price, like the EUR/USD chart, remains below all three moving average lines and is starting a step up. Both oscillators indicate a potential upside swing from potentially oversold conditions, but the cable also yet remains in between the 61.8% Fib line�s price of
1.9575 and the 100% Fib line�s 1.9336.
Tomorrow�s 12:01AM NIESR GDP estimate may not have a drastic impact on the price action tomorrow given its weak historical effect.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY experienced a 150 pip rise today and now teeters at the edge of a correction. On the hourly chart, prices rose above the 100 and 50 SMA�s as well as the 21 EMA. As for the oscillators, they signal an overbought condition, with the 14,3,3 stochastics heading back down towards the 80% mark and the MACD hinting at an upcoming cross down. There is heavy resistance near the 0% Fib line�s price of 107.80, where prices have peaked out at least four times on this chart. Although the 21 EMA (white line) is still poised sharply up, it has historically just as sharply turned south after such an upwards angle. Tomorrow�s Economy Watcher�s Index report at 5:00AM GMT is usually not a strong report and so the currency pair�s potential price drop may occur independently of this announcement.
USD/CHF
Price action for the USD/CHF remains above the three moving average indicators and have started to head down after peaking at 1.1102. Stochastics have already made their way below the 80% mark, but the MACD suggests that there may be further downward momentum to account for, albeit weakly. At the time of this writing, the price of 1.1033 remains well in between both the 100% and 61.8% Fib lines and there has been decent resistance occurring in the past here with regards to the 1.1110 area just below the 100% Fib line. Strong support appears at the 61.8% Fib line�s
1.0975 price area. The currency pair appears to be in a tight squeeze at this moment and a breakout on the last trading day of the week is unlikely but still plausible.
USD/CAD
Not much movement for the USD/CAD today. Prices are entangled within the 21 EMA (white) and 50 SMA (red) lines but holding steady above the 100 SMA (purple) indicating a low trending market. Stochastics and MACD indicate bland movement and very little volatility. A breakout over the 50% Fib line�s price of 1.1022 or under the 38.2% Fib line�s 1.0060 price can very well happen thanks to a push from the Employment Change report and Unemployment Rate coming out of Canada at 12:00PM GMT tomorrow, while the U.S. Wholesale Inventory reports shouldn�t have much effect.
AUD/USD
Very little price action today as prices dipped through but both lines, but remained below the 0% Fib line priced at 0.9095 and above the 38.2% Fib line�s price of 0.8872. Stochastics remain undetermined while the 21 EMA line (white) is aimed at weakly crossing �up� with the red 50 MA line and the MACD also has weak probable upwards entry towards the 0.00 mark. No significant Australian news reports are pending tomorrow and so price action may be rather weak tomorrow.
Written by ForexPros.com