[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013
Fed’s stress test: banks better prepared for downturn
Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.
The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that “in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month” and that “leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs.” She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: “We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K.” Should the reading prove better than expected “it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market,” as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that “the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth.” US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC)[/B]