Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
265

The USD/MXN has risen by more than 5,900 pips on tariff threats

31.05.2019

President Donald Trump announced the 5% tariffs on Mexican goods until the country stops immigrants from entering the US. The tariffs will be applied on June 10. The tariffs could rise to 25% on October 1.

The USD/MXN has risen above the resistance at 19.67. The next resistance lies at 19.97. On the flipside, bears need to pull the pair below the 19.3686, 19.2618 and 19.1417 pivot levels to take back their strength. The support lies at 19.0349.

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266

Will the Reserve bank of Australia weaken the AUD?

http://bit.ly/2XmTBRX

03.06.2019

The Reserve bank of Australia will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 4, at 7:30 MT time.

Analysts anticipate the RBA to cut its interest rate from 1.5% to 1.25%. The chances of a rate cut are high as the Australian economy keeps weakening. The slowdown of the GDP growth, falling house prices and the rise of unemployment are among the key reasons behind the anticipated decision by the RBA. Despite the high chances of the rate cut, the central bank may keep its interest rate unchanged. If it happens, the Australian dollar may get positive momentum.

• If the RBA keeps its interest rate unchanged, the Australian dollar will rise;

• If the RBA cut its interest rate, the Australian dollar will fall.

267

Grandfather of crypto falls below the $8,000 level after consolidation

http://bit.ly/2QGz7kL

04.06.2019

Bears finally took over the cryptomarket and pulled the price for BTC down. At the moment, it is testing the support at $7,970. If this level is broken, bears will face with the next key level at $7,660. If bulls take over, they will need to push the price for Bitcoin above the $8,500 level to the next resistance at $8,800.

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268

The volatility for the USD is expected

05.06.2019

The level of non-farm payrolls, also known as non-farm employment change or NFP will be out on June 7, at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month without farmers. Traders pay huge attention to it, as it makes the US dollar highly volatile after the release. Also, we recommend you not to underestimate the unemployment rate and the level of average hourly earnings. These indicators are released at the same time as the non-farm payrolls and they tend to affect the USD as well. Last time, the NFP outperformed the forecasts. It advanced by 263 thousand jobs (vs. 181 thousand expected). However, bulls could not hold their positions due to the lower-than-expected average hourly earnings (0.2% vs. 0.3%). This time the employment data may lead to a different outcome.

• If NFP is higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

• If NFP is lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

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269

The euro has risen above the 100-day MA on the comments by Mario Draghi

More at: http://bit.ly/2XDuESg

06.06.2019

During today’s press conference, the ECB president said that the data was “somewhat” better than the expectations in the first quarter. The euro jumped higher on his comments, targeting the next resistance at 1.1321. If his further comments are more dovish, EUR/USD will fall back below the 1.1253 level to the support at 1.1214.

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270

Another chance for the USD

10.06.2019

The level of retail sales and core retail sales will be out on June 14, at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator of retail sales represents the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Its core level excludes the sales of autos due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. The level of retail sales declined to 0.2% (vs. the anticipated increase to 0.2%), while its core level advanced only by 0.1% (vs. the forecast of 0.7%). If this time the situation changes, the USD will rise.

• If the actual levels of indicators are higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

• If the actual levels of indicators are lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

271

Market updates on June 11

11.06.2019

On Tuesday, the improved market sentiment supported risky assets such as stocks, emerging-market currencies, and crude oil.

Oil benchmarks have been trying to recover on the improved market sentiment. Talks that OPEC and its allies would continue its program of oil output cuts supported the oil market. However, the effect was limited. WTI moved up but with small gains. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been trading near 53.60. The resistance is located at 54.48. However, the downward pressure is high. If the benchmark is not able to break above 54.48. We will see a decline to 51.70. Brent rose less than WTI. The benchmark reached a high at 62.86. However, bears were stronger and Brent moved down. The support is located at 60.60.

The Chinese yuan succeeds to appreciate against the USD. On Friday, USD/CNH reached the highest level of the year at 6.9613. However, the improved sentiment encouraged Chinese currency. Up to now, the pair has been trading near 6.9242 moving to the support at 6.9165. A close below this level will lead to the further appreciation of the CNH. The next level to touch is 6.90. In the case of risk aversion, USD/CNH will turn around and will move towards 6.9470 targeting the top near 6.9614.

The Mexican peso keeps gaining strength against the US dollar. USD/MXN has been moving down for the 3 days in a row. If bears manage to pull the pair below 50-day simple MA at 19.08, we will see a further decline to 19.02. If the pair rebounds, we may anticipate a rise towards 19.24. The next resistance is at 19.3120.

272

Risk management

Risk management is the key element of Forex trading. It’s better to understand this simple fact rather sooner than later and put a lot of efforts into mastering this science. By definition, risk management is the identification, analysis, assessment, control, and avoidance, minimization, or elimination of unacceptable risks. The risk that exists for Forex traders is simple to understand: it’s the ever-present risk of a bad trade that is closed with a loss.

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273

MARKET UPDATES

13.06.2019

The Australian dollar weakened because of the bigger-than-expected unemployment rate figure. On H4, AUD/USD has been targeting the first support at 0.69. A close below this level will provoke a further decline to 0.6870 with a test of 0.6887. RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are in the oversold area, the rise of the pair will be confirmed as soon as RSI crosses the 30 level bottom up and Stochastic oscillator crosses the signal line. In the case of the rebound, the important resistance is located at 0.6933.

The Swiss franc rose on the Swiss National Bank statement. Although, the central bank kept the interest rate on hold and didn’t provide any hints on a soon increase, comments about the possible weakness of the euro and the USD supported the Swiss currency. As a result, USD/CHF fell. On H4, the pair reached the support at 0.9921 (50-period MA) but rebounded. The first resistance is located at 0.9956, a break above this level will signal a continuation of the upward movement. However, the resistance is strong and we may see a re-test of 0.9921. A break below this level will lift risks of the decline to 0.9888.

Brent has risen significantly after news about oil tankers being attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been moving to the first resistance at 63.73 with a test of 63.

274

Heads up to the FOMC statement

17.06.2019

The Federal Open Market Committee will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 19, at 21:00 MT time.

Despite the demands by US President Donald Trump to cut the interest rate, no changes to it are expected. Now, policymakers keep the interest rate at 2.5%. However, we may find out the hints on the possibility of a rate cut later this year. Wednesday’s statement will show how the US-China trade war and recent weaker economic data affect the Fed decisions.

• If the Fed is hawkish, the USD will go up;

• If the Fed is dovish, the USD will go down.

275

The new stimulus for the euro? Mario Draghi sent EUR/USD lower on the dovish
hints.

18.06.2019

During today’s speech, the ECB President Mario Draghi made remarks on using a rate cut as a primary tool for an economic stimulus.
On the H4, EUR/USD fell to the support at 1.1179 during the European trading hours. At the moment, the pair is correcting to the upside. The first resistance is placed at 1.1211. If the positive momentum is short-lived, the pair will break the 1.1179 level and try to test the support at 1.1165.

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276

Market updates on June 19

19.06.2019

Key events ahead:

British CPI – 11:30 MT time

Forecast: 2%

Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT time

Forecast: +0.1%

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi – 17:00 MT time

FOMC statement – 21:00 MT time

After the plunge of the euro on the dovish comments by the ECB President, EUR/USD has been consolidating near the support at 1.1187 on the H4. If bears manage to break this level, the next support levels will lie at 1.1173 and 1.1165. Bulls need to push the pair higher to the resistance at 1.1209 to confirm their strength. The next resistance will lie at 1.1221. Traders will focus their attention to the fresh comments by the ECB president later today and to the FOMC meeting at 21:00 MT.

US President Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi yesterday. The leaders agreed to meet during the G20 Summit in Japan. The news increased the risk appetite in the market. The risk-on sentiment pushed the oil prices and the Canadian dollar up.

The price for WTI retested the $54.28 level on the news. On the daily chart, from the upside, the next resistance levels are placed at $55.71 and $57.60. Bears need to push the pair back to the support at $50.78 to confirm their strength. The next key level lies at $48.47.

Brent, in its turn, retested the upper border of the consolidation range at $62.66. The next resistance is placed at $63.6. In the case of the fall, we need to keep an eye on the lower border of the consolidation at $57.6. The next support is at $57.5.

On the H4, USD/CAD bounced from the 200-period SMA at 1.3427 and plunged below the 100-period SMA. The pair has tested the lows below the 1.3373 level. If bears continue to drive the loonie down, the next support will lie at 1.3357. On the other hand, pay attention to the resistance at 1.3409. The next level for bulls will lie at 1.3419. Next, the CPI release and the FOMC meeting will likely determine the direction for the pair.

277

Market updates on June 20

Read at: News for today

20.06.2019

Key events ahead:

The BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT time

Yesterday, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. His impatient tone pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. On H4, bulls successfully broke the 50-period SMA. At the moment the EUR is testing the resistance at 1.1294. The next resistance lies at 1.1316. If this level is broken, the next level in focus for bulls will be placed close to the descending trendline at 1.1344. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the support at 1.1257. As soon as it’s broken, the next support will lie at 1.1234 (100-period SMA). After that, bears will target the zone between 1.1224 and 1.1213.

USD/JPY fell on the dovish Fed, too. On H4, the pair found the support at 107.64. If the USD continues to weaken, the next support will lie at 107.29. On the flipside, we need to pay attention to the resistance levels at 108.3 and 108.64.

GBP/USD has been supported ahead of the BOE monetary policy summary. At the moment, it is trading near the resistance at 1.2710 on the H4. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2749 and 1.2780. If the GBP is supported today by the comment of Mark Carney, the next key level will lie at 1.2837. Bears need to keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2651 (100-period SMA), 1.2612 and 1.2557.

The Australian dollar has been rising on the hawkish comments by the RBA governor. Right now, the aussie is rising towards the resistance at 0.6931 (100-period SMA). If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed between 0.6958 and 0.6966. Bears need to pull AUD/USD below 0.6913-0.6905 to confirm their strength. In that case, the next key level for them will lie at 0.6873.

278

Weekly Cryptonews

21.06.2019

Brian Kelly, chief executive of investment management firm BKCM:

Bitcoin is … digital gold. And, in my opinion, it’s probably a lot better than gold, but there is no trusted third party involved, and that’s the huge difference.

This week was super optimistic for Bitcoin bulls. Many positive events in the crypto market, including the announcement of Facebook’s crypto project Libra, pushed the digital asset higher. At the moment, it is looking forward to the breakout of the $9,800 level on the daily chart. If it happens, the next resistance will lie at $10,700. As far as it is broken, the further rise may be limited by the $11,420-$11,777 levels. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the $8,940, $8,664 and $7,970 levels. Awesome oscillator is moving upwards, which is a good signal of the possible further rise.

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Regulations:

·The South Korean crypto regulator promised to pay damages to users in case of hackers’ attacks or system lags.

·The Brazilian authorities obligated local and international crypto exchange platforms to share almost all of the users’ transactions.

Crypto announces:

·The Ethereum developer Justin Drake announced that the switch to Ethereum 2.0 was planned to start on January 3, 2020.

·On Tuesday, Facebook’s crypto project Libra was presented. Mark Zuckerberg introduced a new website, where you can find the white paper of a project. After the critics by different governments, the developers noted that the project would share with authorities the users’ data. Also, Libra Investment token was introduced. The launch of Facebook’s cryptocurrency is expected next year.

·Litecoin Foundation together with Bibox exchange platform and Ternio startup will release a debit crypto card.

·CEO of TRON announced the update of the network to the new version called Odyssey 3.6, to increase the protection and the possibility of dApps creation.
New developments:

·100 of leading Japanese producers, including Mitsubishi Electric and Yaskawa Electric, agreed to launch a collaborative blockchain system for the data exchange.

·The IT department of Samsung launches products for using blockchain in different types of business.

·Firefox developers detected and eliminated the vulnerability which could be used for stealing crypto. It’s recommended to update the browser to the latest version.

·The leading international consulting company PwC launched the Halo instrument for providing guarantee services in crypto payments.

·Japanese messenger LINE can get a resolution to create its own crypto exchange platform soon.
Current prices (last update 15:16 MT time):

Bitcoin $9,835

DASH $165.78

Ethereum $233.05

Litecoin: $138.94

279

5 important events this week will bring us!

24.06.2019

Speech by the Fed chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 20:00 MT (17:00 GMT time)) – After the dovish Federal Reserve, it would be interesting to hear the fresh comments by Jerome Powell.

RBNZ rate statement (Wed, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT time)) – The Reserve bank of New Zealand will keep its interest rate on hold this time, but we will pay attention to the hints on the future changes to its monetary policy.

US final GDP growth (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – According to the forecasts, the level of final GDP growth for the United States will advance by 3.1%. Higher figures will be supportive for the USD.

G20 meetings (Friday-Saturday) – The event is highly important as US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet there to discuss trade issues. The positive outcome of the meeting will set the risk mood in the market.

Canadian GDP growth (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) – The indicator is expected to increase by 0.2%. If the actual figures are higher, the Canadian dollar will rise.

Hot news:

As the market patiently anticipates the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents during the G20 Summit, the risk sentiment in the market has got softer on the comments by the Chinese Commerce Ministry. According to his words, both countries should be willing to make compromises.

After the victory of the opposition party in Istanbul mayor election, the Turkish lira has strengthened. This is a big hit to Erdogan’s ruling party.

The price for Bitcoin has tested the levels above $11,000 during the weekend.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised significant sanctions on Iran soon. It pushed the oil prices higher.

280

The GDP growth may push the USD up

25.06.2019

The United States will release the level of final GDP growth on June 27, at 15:30 MT.

This indicator is the broadest measure of economic activity, that is why traders pay high attention to it. Last time it came out lower than the expectations (2.2% vs. 2.4%). The negative data raised concerns over the slowdown of the US economy and was one of the reasons behind the projections of the rate cut by the Fed. As a result, the USD weakened. However, this time the figures may lead to a different outcome.

• If the actual level of GDP growth is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up;

• If the actual level of GDP growth is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go down

281

Weekly Cryptonews

http://bit.ly/2Lna9WK

28.06.2019

Joe Kerner, CNBC journalist:

“Fiat currency is the currency for government, Libra is for corporations and the only Bitcoin was the asset for the people. I feel like a Bitcoin evangelist right now and stand by it. First of all, who made Facebook in charge to give out currency as and when they please. Who even anointed them, especially with their history?”

The week has been emotionally unstable for BTC traders. After the surge during the first part of the week, when the price for Bitcoin tested the levels above $13,800, the digital asset fell below $11,000 on Thursday. At the moment of writing, the digital currency has been trying to recover. It has already tested the resistance at $12,020. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will be placed at $12,927. From the downside, the first support is placed at $10,563. After the break of this level, the further fall will be limited by the $9,168 level.

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Regulations:

· The Chinese authorities unexpectedly named Bitcoin as a safe haven for investors.

· US CFTC allowed the trading of Bitcoin futures on the LedgerX crypto exchange platform.

· The authorities of Malta wants to obligate the registration on the blockchain of all the transactions with the real estate.
Crypto announces:

· During the dump of BTC, Coinbase and BitMEX crypto exchange platform failed stress test and were functioning with glitches.

· The Singapore exchange platform Bitrue was hacked on Thursday. Hackers withdrew around $4.2 million in XRP and ADA.

· JPMorgan prepares to test its token with some of its corporate clients.
New developments:

· The Brave blockchain browser’s developers are working on the integration of the Ethereum, Ledger and Trezor crypto wallets.

· SWIFT will offer the usage of instant payments through the GPI platform to blockchain companies.

Current prices (last update 17:19 MT time)

Bitcoin $11,790

DASH $165.11

Ethereum $306.24

Litecoin: $119.19

282

Charts in MT4

In this video, we’ll talk about the key part of the trading terminal – price charts.

In the previous video, we saw that there are several ways to open a new chart in MT4.

You can either click “File” – “New chart” or the “New Chart Icon” in the standard toolbar.

Let’s know more about to use our account!

http://bit.ly/325QSPQ

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283

Market updates on July 2

02.07.2019

During the early trading hours, the Australian central bank cut its interest rate to 1% with the dovish outlook. As the decision was already priced in, the Australian dollar tested the ground below 50-period SMA ahead of the meeting but bounced back on the H4 chart. At the moment it is moving towards the resistance at 0.6994. The next resistance is placed at 0.7007. After the breakout of this level, keep an eye on the resistance at 0.7022. From the downside, bears need to pull the pair towards the 0.6963-0.6956 zone. After the breakout, the fall towards the support at 0.6947 is possible.

·Yesterday, the US threatened to raise tariffs on $4 billion of additional EU goods due to the dispute over aircraft subsidies. Combined with the comments on the further easing by the ECB policymakers, the news pulled the euro below the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears need to break the support at 1.1280 to pull EUR/USD lower. The next support levels will be placed at 1.1269 and 1.1257. On the other hand, if bulls try to push the pair up, they will, at first, reach the resistance at 1.1306 (100-period SMA). After that, they face resistance at 1.3190. If this level is broken, the next one will lie at 1.1348 (50-period SMA). RSI oscillator is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity. Pay attention to the speech by the FOMC member Williams, which may affect the EUR/USD pair.

·The uncertainties for the British pound remain, as one of the leading candidates on the post of the UK Prime Minister plans to leave the EU without a deal on October 31. The cable has been trying to stick below the 1.2623 on H4. The next support levels will be placed at 1.2612 and 1.2603. From the upside, buyers will pay attention to the 1.2648 level. After the breakout, the pair will rise as far as the 1.2670 level (100-period SMA) is reached.

·The greenback has risen significantly against the Chinese yuan. The USD/CNH has been testing the resistance at 6.8855 on the H4. The next significant level is placed at 6.8917. The PBOC set USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.8513, that is why we may anticipate the fall of the pair. Keep an eye on the support levels at 6.8636, 6.8578 and 6.8486.

· Gold has been trading in a narrow range between $1,383 and $1,393 levels on H4. If the $1,393 level is broken, the next resistance lies at $1,404. After the breakout, the bullish strength may be limited by the resistance at $1,411. Bears need to pay attention to the $1,383 and $1,364 levels.

284

Positive news from the US-China trade front is moving the aussie

More at: http://bit.ly/2Xp02TI

03.07.2019

The Australian dollar gained on the news that China considers buying more agricultural goods from the US. On H4, AUD/USD has risen higher above the 0.7022 level and is currently targeting the resistance at 0.7047. The next key level for bulls will lie at 0.7061. If the rise is limited, the pair will fall to the 0.7011 level. The next support will lie at 0.7.

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