Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
24

Daily News: trade war is a real threat

26.06.2018

It’s something worth to look at!

A lot of comments from authoritative financial institutions.

JP Morgan determines 7 key risks for the second half of 2018:

Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war.
US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections).
US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening.
OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly.
Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis.
US’s strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria.
Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.

Traders, take these risks into consideration as they will affect trading!

A Barclays outlook for the second half of 2018. According to the company, the USD is supposed to rise against the euro but fall against the JPY. A year-end forecast: EUR/USD 1.12, USD/JPY 107. Emerging markets will continue weakening against the USD. USD/CNY is anticipated to end the year at 6.6, USD/INR will be at 72.
Goldman Sachs analysts worry about trade wars. According to the bank, trade war risks are more than just talk now. Unclear messages about the further escalation of the trade issue really confuse investors and roil their sentiment.

Let’s move to daily news.

The US dollar index is trying to recover. On Monday, it closed below $94. Up to now, it’s slightly above $94. The further direction will depend on CB consumer confidence data (17:00 MT time). The forecast is weaker than the previous data, however, if the actual one is greater than the forecast, the US dollar index will be able to continue rising. However, a great surge to previous highs at $95 isn’t anticipated.

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The EUR/USD pair couldn’t break the resistance at 1.1720 and continue the rise to the previous highs. Up to now, EUR/USD has been moving down. The support is at 1.1610. No important economic data will be released today. As a result, the further movement will depend on the USD’s strength. If the index rises, EUR/USD will go closer to the support, otherwise, it will be able to return to the resistance at 1.1720.

USD/JPY is trading near 50.0 Fibo level that doesn’t let the pair move down. Moreover, 50-day MA (109.65) is an additional support for USD/JPY. Trade wars weigh on markets, however, the Japanese yen needs an additional support. If the USD is stronger, the pair will trade above 109.65, otherwise, it will break the support levels and will move to 109.20.

Some news from China. The People’s Bank of China cut the reference rate again. Up to now, it’s at the lowest level since January 10: 6.5180 (yesterday 6.4893). During the meeting with a group of US and European businessmen, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China will respond to US tariffs. Nothing new.

No significant changes in other pairs’ movements.

That is all for today. Follow markets’ news with us!

25

Gold dives as trade war worries relieve

27.06.2018

On Wednesday, gold edged down because the evergreen buck managed to strengthen, while trade tensions relieved.

August delivery headed south by 0.20% coming up with $1,257.40 a troy ounce on the Comex exchange.

Trade war worries relieved after news that the US government is taking a less hawkish approach to foreign investment limitations. US leader wants Congress to allow the revised Committee on Foreign Investment of the US to have domestic technology protected. However, Donald Trump is reluctant to come up with a national emergency law against China, as one senior administration official revealed.

Market participants had been on edge for the last time over worries that US leader would restrict foreign investment into American technology businesses in the latest trade feud move.

Market participants often opt for gold in times of political meltdown because the precious commodity is normally considered to be a safe haven from the negative impact of geopolitics. However, this popular precious metal has struggled in the face of the fresh political risks.

At the same time the evergreen buck managed to edge up. As a rule, gold goes up as the evergreen buck dives due to the fact this commodity is denominated in the American dollar therefore it’s very sensitive to any fluctuations in this currency.

Aside from that, the USD index, gauging the greenback’s value versus a pack of major currencies, leapt about 0.34% staying close to a year’s peak of 94.68.

Bullion gets less affordable for holders of other assets the US currency tacks on and respectively cheaper when it dips.

Apart from that silver futures tumbled 0.15% on the Comex exchange reaching $16.225 a troy ounce. As for other precious commodities, platinum futures went down 1.91% demonstrating $858.00, palladium futures dived 0.94% ending up with $945.70 an ounce. Moreover, copper futures rallied 0.18% trading at $3.021 a pound.

26

American futures rally, as traders look ahead to economic reports

28.06.2018

On Thursday, American futures headed north because market participants looked ahead to a bunch of economic reports.

The S&P 500 futures managed to acquire 0.39% being worth 2,715.50. Dow futures tacked on by 0.38% coming up with 24,227.0. At the same time, tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures ascended by 0.43% trading at 7,028.00.

Market participants are actually waiting for the GDP data expected to be released soon. Jobless claims are anticipated to be published soon too.

At the same time, trade tensions were still in the back of traders’ minds right after the White House told it’s going to rely on the Committee on Foreign Investment in America have domestic technology protected from foreign investment.

Netflix turned out to be amid the top-notch performers in pre-market trading, soaring by 1.44%. At the same time Tesla managed to edge up by 0.78%, Facebook soared by 0.18%. As for Microsoft, its equities rallied by 0.47%. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices Inc inched up by 1%.

In addition to this, Tata Motors Limited ADR headed south by 2.35%, Pier 1 Imports Inc went down by approximately 15.67% after its sales tumbled more than anticipated in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike as well as Accenture PLC are anticipated to uncover their financial outcomes on Thursday.

In the European bloc, equities generally slumped. In Germany, the DAX headed south by 0.73%, in France the CAC 40 dipped by 0.35%, while in London, the FTSE 100 lost 0.01%. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged down by 0.49%. In Spain, the IBEX 35 lost 0.41%.

Gold futures went down by 0.18% being worth $1,253.80 a troy ounce. Crude futures managed to gain by 0.25% trading at $72.94 a barrel. Estimating the US currency’s purchasing power versus six main currencies, the USD index tumbled by 0.17% being worth 94.86.

27

#WeeklyCryptoNews

29.06.2018

Nobel economics prize winner Robert Shiller: “It’s (Bitcoin) a social movement. It’s an epidemic of enthusiasm. It is a speculative bubble. That doesn’t mean that it will go to zero…Bitcoin is a social movement whose popularity splits along geographic lines in the US.”

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple called blockchain a “Bubble”, however, it still has the future and thinks Bitcoin is still “just amazing”.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is falling further. The cryptocurrency is under the support at $6,000. It’s a warning sign for the further Bitcoin direction. On Monday, the price managed to return above $6,000, however, couldn’t stick there. The next support is at $5,500. Bitcoin needs a support as soon as possible, otherwise, it will fall to $3,200 as analytics predicted before.

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Tether released additional 250 million USDT again. Experts noticed it caused a surge of Bitcoin price and a rise in the trading volume. The founder of Litecoin Charlie Lee said that such situation isn’t new for Bitcoin. Previously the rise of the price happened exactly because of the additional release of USDT tokens.
Analysts said that a launch of ETF can push Bitcoin price up. If ETFs attract 24 million American investors and 14 million from the whole world, it will add $84 billion and $336 billion to the market capitalization.
More than 40 Bitcoin forks appeared at the market less than in a year. According to an analyst, such platforms as Fokgen let almost everyone create clones of major cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency investors don’t take them seriously. Just have a look at their names: Bitcoin Pizza, Bitcoin Candy, and Bitcoin God. According to June data, only Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, and Bitcoin Private are Bitcoin forks.
Antpool and BTC.com pools (under control of mining giant Bitmain) managed to mine 16.5% and 25.5% of all Bitcoin blocks. Cryptocurrency market worries that Bitmain may take control under 51% of the network’s hashrate. A threat that the major part of Bitcoin network will be controlled by one company may pull Bitcoin price even lower.
Investors prefer Ethereum to Bitcoin and are for the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. According to a poll of Foley & Lardner LLP (US), despite the recent correction and uncertain regulation, 58% of respondents are open to investments and ready to develop the cryptocurrency business. 84% thinks that ICO should be under control of a federal government or separate states, 68% is for a regulation of buy/sell cryptocurrency operations.
FBI investigate 130 cryptocurrency cases. Cryptocurrencies were used while a human beings traffic, blackmailing offenses, a cybercrime and a drug industry.

Regulation

China is going to implement cryptocurrencies in the financial system.
Three bills about the blockchain regulation and ICO will be considered in Malta. It’s worth saying that Malta is one of the most cryptocurrency-friendly countries. Only in the last few months, Binance, OKEx and Bitbay cryptocurrency exchanges announced an opening of offices in the country.
Financial Services Commission of South Korea tightened control under cryptocurrency exchanges. Banks serving cryptocurrency exchanges have to track the movement of both funds in the accounts of traders and their own assets of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Facebook allowed limited cryptocurrency ads. To get a permission, advertisers have to provide Facebook with data on licenses, listing on stock exchanges data and any important public information about their businesses.

Cryptocurrency exchanges

The number of clients of the cryptocurrency exchange DX Exchange (based on the NASDAQ infrastructure) exceeded 500,000 people even before its launch. The cryptocurrency exchange will offer trading with 0% commission.
Coinbase will provide trading with the GBP. In March the cryptocurrency exchange started cooperating with Barclays (British Bank).

Blockchain

Alibaba tested payments with blockchain successfully. It took just 3 seconds to make a payment.
South Korea will invest $200 million to develop blockchain.
According to a research, 46 states have already presented more than 200 blockchain projects. The research company noticed that Blockchain can help states to resist manipulation of data and increase the transparency of operations, but noted that the “exaggerated hype” around the blockchain outshines its real capabilities.

Bitcoin $5,898 (-3.45%)

DASH $218.81 (-1.41%)

Ethereum $415.17 (-4.30%)

Litecoin $73.548 (-6.42%)

28

Daily News: lots of news after the weekend

09:55 02.07.2018

North Korea surprised again. The country is building its nuclear weapon. Despite an agreement between the US and NK, North Korea doesn’t want to lose its power. Tensions are escalating.
Some comments on trade tensions. Mr. Trump said that “the European Union is possibly as bad as China, only smaller”. “They send a Mercedes in, we can’t send our cars in. Look what they do to our farmers. They don’t want our farm products. Now in all fairness, they have their farmers … But we don’t protect ours and they protect theirs”. Let’s see whether there will be more comments on trade tensions. The aussie and the Japanese yen should react.
The Japanese yen reacted to negative news a little bit. USD/JPY tested the resistance at 110.90 but couldn’t break it and rebounded. Despite the rebound, bulls still prevail as the USD is still strong. The resistance lies at 110.90. If the US dollar index weakens, the pair will turn around to the support at 110.20 (200-day MA).

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The US dollar index rebounded from the support at $94.50. Up to now, it has been moving up. The resistance lies at $95. Today traders will look at ISM manufacturing PMI data (17:00 MT time). The forecast is weaker than the previous data, however, if the actual data is greater than the forecast, the US dollar index will go up further.

29

Euro tacks on

03.07.2018

On Tuesday, the common currency managed to ascend because political risk in Germany receded, while the evergreen buck and the Japanese yen both dived due to the fact that worries over trade tensions relieved, although market sentiment was still uncertain.

The currency pair EUR/USD soared by 0.26% hitting 1.1669 having concluded the previous trading marathon down 0.32%.

The common currency was backed after German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed to come to a compromise as for immigration policy with her coalition colleagues, thus tackling an issue, which could potentially question the very future of the German government.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing power versus six main currencies, the USD index slumped by 0.2% being worth 94.41.

Asian markets demonstrated a late soar having slipped overnight, although market participants were still on edge ahead of a looming deadline in the trade clashes between China and America.

American duties on $34 billion of China’s goods are due to come true on July 6. Meanwhile, China is on the verge to strongly respond with duties of its own on the same value of American goods.

American leader Donald Trump is overwhelmed with ambitious plans to have America’s key trading partners penalized, including the European bloc, Canada and Mexico, which is in line with his ‘America First’ stance, which many traders fear will impact global surge.

The evergreen buck inched up versus the Japanese yen. The currency pair USD/JPY rallied to 110.98.

The common currency rallied versus the Japanese yen too. The currency pair EUR/JPY added 0.36% being worth 129.52.

As for the UK currency, it tacked on, with GBP/USD gaining 0.27% trading at 1.3156.

The trade sensitive New Zealand and Australian dollars managed to grow too. The currency pair AUD/USD tacked on by 0.64% being worth 0.7386, the currency pair NZD/USD gained by 0.15% coming up with a reading of 0.6725.

30

China’s Yuan tacks on PBOC’s dovish statement

04.07.2018

On Wednesday, China’s Yuan managed to ascend versus the evergreen buck, just a day after the country’s main financial institution had markets assured it would keep the national currency steady in the face of heightened concerns as for trade clashes. However, equities were still under pressure.

As a matter of fact, Chinese currency along with equity markets have been wavering ahead of July 6, when American duties on $34 billion worth of China’s products are set to come into effect. The Chinese government has told it would response with duties on products from the United States.

In June, the Chinese Yuan faced its worst month on record, losing approximately 3.3% of its value versus the US currency, and the decline resumed on Monday.

On Tuesday, it bounced off after the statement from PBOC Governor Yi Gang and resumed riding the updraft on Wednesday, thus putting the Chinese Yuan on track for its first two-day gaining marathon since the middle of June as well as the best day since late March.

The Chinese Yuan hit 6.6009 against the greenback, just 0.65% stronger than Tuesday’s outcome.

Some traders pointed out that the PBOC’s clue turned out to be clear enough, although the market would monitor and timely react to developments ahead of July 6.

Major Chinese equity indexes happened to be less enthusiastic. They started the trading day flip-flopping around Tuesday’s close before jumping with both feet into negative territory to stay there.

The CSI300 Index headed south by 1.3%, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1%.

An index gauging the 50 most representative blue-chips in Shanghai, also known as “nifty 50”, headed south approximately 1% showing a 14-month minimum.

The Hang Seng Index dived more than 1.3%, while an index, gauging mainland companies, dipped nearly 1.7%.

31

Get ready for the NFP excitement

05.07.2018

There are many economic indicators. Some can be ignored, some can be traded and some are so well-known among traders that they should be definitely taken into account no matter what you plan to do.

US Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP for short is one of such indicators. The secret of its high market impact is that it’s very difficult to forecast, so the actual reading usually significantly differs from the forecast level. Traders often get surprised with NFP, and the US dollar comes in motion.

NFP will be released at 15:30 MT time on July 6. Notice that it is not the only release that will come out at this time. It will be accompanied by the publication of Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. As for average earnings, the higher is its growth, the better for the USD. The situation is opposite to the unemployment rate. The USD strengthens when the unemployment rate declines.

• If the data is better than the forecast, the USD will go up.

• If the data is worse than the forecast, the USD will go down.

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32

#WeeklyCryptoNews

06.07.2018

The Bank of Finland released a paper “The Great Illusion of Cryptocurrencies” where they explain why the concept of a digital currency is a “fallacy.” The main idea is cryptocurrencies are not real currencies but instead “accounting systems for non-existent assets.”

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin has been trying to break the resistance at $6,500 during the whole week but failed. Up to now, the cryptocurrency has been trading near $6,350. The trading isn’t extensive. If no positive news encourages the digital currency, it will fall further. The support is at $6,200 (50-hour and 100-hour MA). If Bitcoin finds support, it will return to $6,500 (200-hour MA).

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Venezuela will build houses for homeless people financing it with the national cryptocurrency El Petro. The government will invest 909K Petro.
Ripple is sued again. The company is accused of violating the law in the sphere of securities. According to the complainant, the company increases the price purposely. It’s worth remembering that the company was issued for the first time in May this year.
During the first six months of 2018, swindlers laundered money in the amount of $761 million with cryptocurrencies through illegal activities. To compare, during the whole 2017, swindlers laundered just $266 million.

Regulation

Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand imposed restrictions for ICO projects. Before launching the ICO, the company will have to get an approval of 2 authorities. Moreover, companies can raise investments only in Thai baht or in the cryptocurrencies that were approved before. They are Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Ripple, and Stellar.
The Parliament of Malta passed bills on cryptocurrencies. Malta is the first country in the world that provides legal certainty in this field.
The largest US cryptocurrency company Coinbase accepts investments from institutional investors from the USA and the EU.

Cryptocurrency exchanges

Bittrex platform and invest.com trading company will launch a new cryptocurrency exchange for residents of the Eurozone. Users will be able to trade about 200 digital tokens. The new platform will support a blockchain expansion.
Huobi Pro cryptocurrency exchange will open a new trading platform where users will be able to trade 10 cryptocurrencies in a pair with the Australian dollar.

Blockchain

A new idea of the British Parliament. They ask the government of the UK to use blockchain in the state sector wider and create a new position of the Head of the blockchain.
Microsoft Taiwan announced a cooperation with Chinese companies Digital China и Hot Cool for a blockchain project. Companies will implement the technology to financial, entertainment and electronic commerce sectors.
An experiment on a blockchain poll was successfully conducted in the Switzerland city, Zug. Moreover, a representative of the government of Zug said that cryptocurrency companies will get a full access to bank services.

Just for fun. According to talks, Satoshi Nakamoto will write a book where he will answer all rousing questions.

Bitcoin $6,500

DASH $235.90

Ethereum $457.70

Litecoin $81.510

33

Greenback goes down on soft American wages data

09.07.2018

On Monday, the evergreen buck struggled near 3-1/2-week minimums versus its counterparts after American jobs data disclosed slower-than-anticipated wage surge, while the UK currency rebounded as a major member of Britain’s cabinet dared to resign because of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit initiative.

Versus a basket of six crucial currencies, the USD index slumped by 0.15% hitting 93.877.

On Friday, it had dived almost by 0.5% percent reaching 93.921, which is its lowest value since June 14, after closely-watched American wages indicators turned out to be disappointing for the market.

The data demonstrated that in June average American hourly earnings edged up by 0.2% having soared by 0.3% in May. It actually pointed to moderate inflation pressures, which confounded hopes that the Fed would increase interest rates up to four times this year.

In June, nonfarm payrolls rallied by a stronger-than-anticipated 213,000, although it had minor impact on currencies.

British wages didn’t soar so substantially. Accordingly, there will not be a fast pickup in the tempo of long-term interest rate lifts, as some financial analysts pointed out.

In addition to this, on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield headed south to its lowest value for six weeks. Therefore, the spread between the two- and 10-year profits turned out to be at its flattest value for 11 years.

The evergreen buck stood still sticking with 110.42 yen having lost 0.2% on Friday.

The common currency rallied by 0.2% hitting $1.1765. On Friday, the euro had ascended by 0.45% reaching $1.1768, which is its strongest value since mid-June.

The UK currency erased earlier revenues and it stood still at $1.3300.

The British pound had ascended to $1.3328 earlier in the trading session, thus showcasing its highest value since June 14, before rebounded on news that British Brexit Secretary David Davis had retired, thus giving a powerful blow to Theresa May.

34

Big day for the Canadian dollar

10.07.2018

Every meeting of the central bank is vital for the currency. Central banks can give comments that will set the currency trend until the next meeting, i.e. for the next month. The Bank of Canada is no exception.

Its meeting will take place on July 11. The interest rate and the central bank’s statement will be released at 17:00 MT time. The BOC Governor will hold a press conference at 18:15 MT time.

This meeting will be very important because the Bank of Canada will have to decide whether to raise interest rates for the second time this year. On the one hand, the BOC prepared the market for a rate hike at its last meeting in June. On the other hand, since then Canadian economic indicators deteriorated. As a result, it will be a real dilemma for the central bank. In such situation of uncertainty, there’s a great potential for surprise and, consequently, for big swings in the CAD exchange rate.

• If the BOC raises the interest rate, the CAD will rise.

• If the BOC leaves the interest rate, the CAD will go down.

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35

American producer prices gain on services and cars

11.07.2018

In June, American producer prices went up more than supposed in the face of jumps in the cost of cars, services, thus provoking the greatest annual soar for 6-1/2 years.

The Labor Department told on Wednesday that its producer price index for final demand added by 0.3% in June, underpinned by jumps in gasoline prices. Furthermore, in May, the PPI ascended by 0.5%. For the twelve months through June, the PPI managed to soar by about 3.4%, which is the greatest revenue since November 2011. In May, producer prices surged by 3.1% year-on-year.

Financial analysts surveyed by Reuters had predicted the PPI soaring 0.2% in June and tacking on 3.2% year-on-year.

A major gauge of producer price pressures, without energy, trade services and food, ascended by 0.3% the previous month. In May, the core PPI rallied by 0.1%.

The core PPI went up by 2.7% for the 12 months through June having soared 2.6% in May.

Inflation is slowly soaring due to the fact that a labor market is close to its complete employment.

In May, the personal consumption expenditures price index without energy, and food that is the Fed’s primary inflation indicator met the major bank’s 2% goal for the first time for six years.

In June, the cost of services inched up by 0.4% having soared by 0.3% in May. A 21.8% ascend in the index for fuels as well as lubricants retailing amounted to nearly 40% of the soar in the cost of services in June.

As for the cost of healthcare services, it rallied by 0.2% because a 1% leap in prices for hospital outpatient care compensated minor dives in the cost of doctor visits as well as hospital inpatient care. In May, healthcare prices ascended by 0.1%.

36

#WeeklyCryptoNews

13.07.2018

David Supper, the chief operating officer at Blockbid: I believe the hype has just begun. Only 1 % of the world population own cryptocurrency. In recent time, there is more and more news about the involvement of banks and large funds in the stock market, so mass adoption of digital assets will come in the next two years.

Baiju Bhatt, Robinhood CEO: Sovereign nations will eventually have cryptocurrencies as their default currency. Whether it happens next year or in 15 years.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin has tested the support at $6,000. During the whole week, the cryptocurrency has been trying to stick above the psychological level of $6,500. However, all attempts failed. If this support doesn’t make Bitcoin rebound, a trader can anticipate the further fall to $5,500. The daily picture isn’t encouraging for the cryptocurrency. MAs are moving down. However, the position of MAs on the weekly chart gives more hope on the smooth trading. In the longer term, we can anticipate the trading within the horizontal channel at $5,500-6,500.

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According to Chainalysis blockchain startup, users lost an access to Bitcoin tokens in the amount of $20 billion. The main reason is the loss of private keys to wallets by users.
Chinese hackers infected more than a million computers with a virus of the hidden mining. Suspected people worked for the company that develops plugins for web browsers. For 2 years, they had managed to earn more than $2 million.
According to McAfee Labs, the volume of hidden mining has increased by 629% for three months.

Regulation

The People Bank of China announced that a percentage of deals with the Chinese yuan in the global Bitcoin trading declined from more than 90% to 1%. The reason is the strict regulation. Last year, the Government forbade ICO projects. As a result, a lot of representatives of the industry left the country.
The tax office of Australia will control citizens who hide their income from cryptocurrency trading in offshores. Australia will use data exchange agreements with other countries. Recently, the office became a member of the alliance that will investigate tax crimes and money laundering with cryptocurrencies.
A new working party for cryptocurrency investigations will be created in the US.

Blockchain

IBM got a grant in $738K from the government of Delaware for a development of the record keeping system for business project based on the blockchain technology. Moreover, the company will help the Australian government to implement blockchain projects.
The +CityxChange startup will create “intelligent cities” in Europe using IOTA blockchain.

Just for fun.

“Buffett’s $10” is a cryptocurrency experiment. Founders of the project invest $10 into cryptocurrencies daily; explain their decision and show results.
An unknown expert placed a bet of 8,5 million Australian dollars ($6,27 million) on the possibility that the Bitcoin price will surpass $280,000 in 2023.

Bitcoin $6,238.2 (+0.81%)

DASH $223.40 (+5.60%)

Ethereum $437.13 (+1.19%)

Litecoin $76.786 (+1.41%)

37

Greenback edges down

16.07.2018

On Monday, the evergreen buck slumped versus a currency basket, having reported its greatest weekly revenue for a month the previous week because market participants shifted their attention to American retail sales outcomes for June later in the trading session.

Estimating the evergreen buck’s purchasing potential against a group of six main rivals, the USD index declined 0.15% being worth 94.30. The previous week the index ascended 0.7%, which is its largest weekly percentage leap since mid-June.

Demand for the evergreen buck was still backed because the risk of an intensifying escalation in trade conflict as well as soft economic data out of China irritated traders.

Overnight, data disclosed that China’s economy speeded down, which is in line with hopes in the second quarter, showing that the trade conflict with America might be acting as a drag on surge.

As a matter of fact, Chinese GDP managed to leap at an annual rate of 6.7% for the three months to June, tumbling from 6.8% in the first quarter.

Additionally, on Monday, China told that it had filed a complaint with the WTO over an American threat to impose 10% duties on $200 billion of China’s imports.

The move showed up after over the weekend Donald Trump alarmed European leaders by telling that the European block appears to be an enemy considering how it trades with America.

The common currency ascended to the day’s maximums versus the softer greenback. The currency pair EUR/USD soared 0.2% hitting 1.1709.

The evergreen buck was nearly intact versus the safe haven yen. The currency pair USD/JPY reached 112.38.

Market participants were waiting for June retail sales figures from America in the day.

Aside from that the International Monetary Fund was expected to come up with its fresh World Economic Outlook a bit later on Monday.

38

Daily News: the USD is weak

17.07.2018

The US dollar index has been trading below the psychological level of $94.50. Although Monday economic data were positive, the US dollar index was weak. The market is waiting for Mr. Powell’s testifies on Tuesday and Wednesday (17:00 MT time). As the market anticipates two additional rate hikes this year, the speeches of the Fed’s Chairman will make sense for traders. If the Chairman sounds hawkish, the USD will be able to recover, otherwise, it will go further down. Targets are the support at $94, resistances at $94.50 and $95.

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Morgan Stanley forecasts the weaker USD in the third quarter of 2019, the return to the weaker movement will happen in August 2018.

Forecasts for pairs within the 1 year:

USD/JPY 88.00 - 101.00.

EUR/USD 1.18 - 1.30.

GBP/USD 1.32 - 1.50.

AUD/USD 0.67 - 0.75.

ANZ says that the Chinese yuan is undervalued.

According to ANZ, trade wars tensions were the main reason for the Asian currencies’ weakness. The Bank says that even if trade wars tensions don’t ease in the near future, the Asian currencies weakness may ease soon. However, the Bank adds that although the average fair value of the CNY is $6, the gap in the valuation unlikely will be covered soon.

39

Greenback ascends on Powell’s assessment of American economy

18.07.2018

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck managed to jump because Fed Chair Jerome Powell came up with an upbeat assessment of the American economy at his Tuesday’s semi-annual congressional testimony.

The statesman stressed that the US key financial institution is on the verge of gradually increasing its interest rates.

Gauging the purchasing power of the major American currency versus a group of its crucial counterparts, the USD index gained 0.13% trading at 95.05.

The evergreen buck reached a six-month maximum versus the Japanese yen. The currency pair USD/JPY went up by 0.1% demonstrating 112.97 having ascended to 113.08 previously - its strongest value since January 9, underpinned by Powell’s positive remarks.

The evergreen buck is expected to keep ascending, especially versus Japan’s currency, with risk aversion in the equity markets fading away, as some financial analysts pointed out.

While long-term Treasury revenues aren’t soaring powerfully, it’s a pure reflection of investor demand for American assets, which generates a degree of dollar-buying in the market.

Aside from that Powell told that at his testimony that protectionism is capable of hindering economic surge. He told that those countries, which have remained open to trade, and which haven’t come up with barriers including duties, have ascended quicker. Respectively, these countries boast higher incomes as well as higher productivity.

Moreover, trade worries can have a strong impact on salaries as well as capital expenditures, as Powell pointed out.

In addition to this, the currency pair AUD/USD managed to decline 0.14% demonstrating an outcome of $0.7381, thus extending its rebound from Tuesday when this currency pair lost approximately 0.45% versus a broadly stronger major American currency.

As for Japan’s currency, it was nearly intact versus the evergreen buck. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the currency pair USD/CNY headed south by nearly 0.02% trading at 6.7065.

40

Gold edges up on Trump’s remarks

20.07.2018

On Friday, the leading precious commodity rallied, thus offsetting some of its weekly losses because Trump’s remarks about Fed rates and the evergreen buck put pressure on the US currency.

August delivery gold futures went up by 0.6% trading at $1,231.10 an ounce. On Tuesday, the contract hit about $1,224, which is the lowest value since July 2017.

As for the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund GLD, it rallied by 0.7%.

Meanwhile, the USD index slumped by 0.7%. The USD index, assessing half-dozen counterparts, normally moves opposite greenback-denominated gold. In general, the US currency has enjoyed this year’s rebound due to the fact that market participants have turned to America as a trustworthy source of safety during hard times.

Some experts are assured that such factors as immediate interest-rate policy as well as the risk of trade conflict don’t undermine the every function of gold as a reliable asset. US leader told he was ready to slap duties on all China’s products imported to America.

Some market experts are assured that the medium-term outlook for the number one precious commodity is quite upbeat because they expect the key US bank to cease lifting rates next year. The American economy is also anticipated to speed down in 2019 that coupled with lower revenues as well as a weaker greenback would most likely underpin gold.

In addition to this, September delivery silver futures managed to ascend approximately 1% being worth $15.549 an ounce. On Thursday, the contract slumped more than 1% hitting $15.402 an ounce, which is the lowest value since late 2016. Moreover, it faced a 1.7% weekly tumble. Besides this, for the week the iShares Silver Trust SLV headed south 1.9%.

September delivery copper futures ascended 2.2% demonstrating an outcome of $2.756 a pound, having reached $2.696 a pound on Thursday.

41

German economy demonstrates improved momentum in the second quarter

23.07.2018

In the second quarter, the German economy managed to regain some of its lost momentum, underpinned by manufacturing, private consumption as well as reviving exports. That’s what the Bundesbank told in a monthly economic statement on Monday.

For the first three months of 2018 economic surge suddenly halved to a quarterly rate of about 0.3% and financial analysts are still discussing whether the deceleration turned out to be merely a hiccup or it stood for the end of a boom in the EU’s number one economy.

Worries that worsening trade tensions could also impact surge have also been affecting investor sentiment. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund told that the euro zone was experiencing serious risks, which could provoke a hand landing for the German economy after a five-year rally.

As some financial analysts pointed out, the German economy demonstrated better momentum in the spring in contrast with the beginning of the year. However, it’s unlikely that the high surge rates of the previous year are going to be repeated. Once again manufacturing turned out to be the major economic driving force.

Pharmaceutical output happened to be especially firm. In addition to this, car manufacturing rallied steeply, even as the output of intermediate goods was still poor, as the bank informed.

Part of the improvement in surge momentum could be explained by the expiration of one-off factors, which held back surge, such as an extremely disruptive flu season. That’s what the Bundesbank informed.

As for household consumption, it managed to remain a cornerstone of surge. At the same time, government consumption that went down in the early part of 2018, bounced off too.

Besides this, activity in the flourishing construction sector managed to drastically ascend notwithstanding capacity constraints, as the Bundesbank pointed out.

42

Daily News: markets are varied

24.07.2018

The US dollar index has been trying to recover. It has been trading between $94.50-95. However, to reach the psychological level at $95, it needs additional support. No important economic data will be out today. As a result, there are risks of the fall below $94.50. Otherwise, the index will continue trading within the channel. The resistance lies at $95.

866×801

Tuesday is the day of the euro. A lot of economic data have been released today. The data were mixed and the USD recovers, as a result, EUR/USD has been suffering. The pair is trying to stay above the pivot point at 1.1680. However, the pressure is big. If the USD is stronger, the pair will break below the pivot point. The next support is at 1.1610. Otherwise, it will be able to stick above 1.1680. However, the rise to the resistance at 1.1785 is unlikely.

43

American futures stand still ahead of Juncker and Trump meeting

25.07.2018

On Wednesday, American futures stood still because Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker are expected to meet to negotiate trade.

The S&P 500 futures headed south by 0.14% trading at 2,817.0, Dow futures slumped by 0.08% trading at 25,194.0. At the same time, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.01% reaching 7,415.50.

America slapped steep duties on aluminum and steel imports from the European Union and also hinted at a possibility of extending duties to the car sector. In return, the European Union prepared a retaliatory action to withstand probable car duties.

On Tuesday, US leader posted on Tweeter that America and European bloc need to remove all barriers, tariffs and subsidies.

Boeing and UPS are anticipated to post their second-quarter outcomes before the morning bell. Additionally, Ford Motor Company, Facebook Qualcomm as well as others will uncover their result after the closing bell.

General Motors Company tumbled by 3.75% due to the fact that its profit missed expectations. In addition to this, General Electric headed south by 0.76%, Cisco Systems Inc sagged by 0.21%, Netflix inched down by 0.65%.

Additionally, Perrigo Co edged up by 0.42%, Chinese e-commerce firmJd.Com Inc Adr soared by 0.59%. As for Coca-Cola Company, it ascended by 1.30% after its revenue turned out to be better than anticipated.

In the European Union, equities generally dipped. The DAX sank by nearly 0.23% in Germany. The CAC 40 soared by 0.01% in France. The FTSE 100 slumped by 0.65% in London. Meanwhile the Euro Stoxx 50 went down by 0.34%. The IBEX 35 dipped by 0.37% in Spain.

Meanwhile, gold futures managed to ascend by 0.40 hitting $1,230.40 a troy ounce. Crude futures went down by about 0.16% being worth $68.41 a barrel.