Attention: trading schedule changes!
Very important information for our traders! FBS reminds you of a trading schedule change due to DST!
Starting from October 28th, 2018 Europe is setting the clocks back one hour. The MetaTrader time is set back one hour as well. Pay attention to this fact, because it affects the trading schedule.
Trading for [XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Palladium, Platinum, WTI, BRN] will open one hour earlier MT time. Please keep this fact in mind when planning your trading sessions.
And remember: whenever you have questions or concerns, please feel free to contact the FBS support team!
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Weekly CryptoNews
19.10.2018
Carlos Tong, the Chairman of Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC): “We do not think imposing a total ban on cryptocurrency trading platforms is necessarily the right approach, and it will not work in today’s internet world when trading can cross national boundaries.”
On Wednesday, Bitcoin managed to test its September highs. An unexpected increase happened due to the problems with Bitfinex and Tether. Tether or USDT considered as a stablecoin which price has been held at $1 for a long period of time, dropped to $0.98. This resulted in panic among the investors and traders, who started to sell USDT and buy Bitcoin. It is interesting to know that USDT is supported by Bitfinex trading platform, which is facing bankruptcy right now. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading below the support at $6580 (50-day MA). The next support for the digital currency is at $6419. If any crypto manipulations occur Bitcoin can go up. In that case, the price can stick above $6580.
Regulations:
Due to the trade war between the US and China, Bitmain and other developers of mining tools for China can lose their target market if the trade tariffs rise.
The government of India suggested forbidding owning crypto assets which are not approved by the government. Will the situation be worse than in China?
New releases:
The most stable stablecoin Gemini Dollar approved by New York financial department rose by $1.2. More stability is needed!
The oldest Chinese crypto trading platform BTCC announced its expansion to South Korea.
American holding company Fidelity Investments, which rules assets around 7.2 trillion of market capitalization will launch a crypto trading platform for institutional investors at the beginning of 2019.
Telegram will start testing blockchain TON until the end of November. The network is 70% ready.
Key events to follow for the next week:
October 23 - Blockchain & Bitcoin Conference in Saint Julian`s, Malta
October 23 - Ethereum Classic New York Meetup, USA
October 24 - TRON San Francisco Meetup, USA
October 26 - China Alternative Investments Summit in Beijing, China
Bitcoin $6,597.7(-1.76%)
DASH $157.09 (-4.19%)
Ethereum $206.65 (-2.67%)
Litecoin: $52.22 (-0.44%)
5 important things this week will bring us!
Check the graphs: News of the week on October 22-26
22.10.2018
The speech of the Bank of England governor Carney (Tue, 18:20 MT time) – the BOE governor is planning to make a speech in Toronto. The main topic of his speech will be dedicated to machine learning, however, he can make some comments regarding the Bank’s monetary policy. This will be a good move to support the GBP after the last week Brexit tensions.
Bank of Canada rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT time) – Bank of Canada will announce its official rate. Despite the weaker than expected economic data concerning inflation and retail sales, the bank is anticipated to raise interest rates on Wednesday. If it happens, this will be the fourth rate hike since July 2017, which will support the CAD.
The announcement of the main refinancing rate and the European Central Bank press conference (Thu, 14:45 MT time) – This week is important for the EUR, too. ECB will give its usual press conference and announce the official rate on Thursday. The rate is expected to remain stable, as the bank does not plan a rate hike earlier than in summer 2019. However, the President of the ECB Mario Draghi can make some hawkish comments on the EU economy and the EUR.
US Core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – according to analysts, the total value of new purchase orders of the US will increase by 0.3%. If the actual data is higher, the greenback will rise.
US advance GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT time) – experts see the GDP of the United States to fall by 3.3% in the third quarter, which still shows the above trend growth of the US economy.
Hot topics:
The European Commission will make their concerns regarding Italy on Monday. If the EU commission rejects the proposal on Italian budget, Italy will have three weeks to revise the budget.
Canada will host a multilateral summit on reforming the World Trade Organization on Wednesday. The main focus will be on the US tariffs. The United States wishes China’s non-market economy to remain the target of WTO reforms, while Canada tries to push for the reforms.
The Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the extension of Brexit transition cannot be considered as an alternative to the Irish backstop.
News to trade on October 23
Check the graphs: News on October 23
23.10.2018
The main focus for today will be on the speech of the Bank of England governor Mark Carney in Toronto at 18:20 MT time. He can make some comments regarding the monetary policy. Yesterday new uncertainties around the Brexit pushed the British pound down. Despite the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s comments on the reaching final compromise, Eurosceptics within the UK parliament and the members of the Democratic Unionist party of Ireland will try to make illegal the solution proposed by European Union.
As a result, GBP/USD crossed the psychological support at 1.3 yesterday. For now, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.2969.
If Carney’s comments are hawkish, GBP/USD can stick above 1.3 targeting the next resistance at 1.3103. More bad news on Brexit will push the pair down to the support at 1.2877.
The Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Italy would adjust measures in the market if the spread between the Italian and German 10-year bond yields continues to widen. For now, EUR/USD is trying to recover. Positive news for the EUR will help the pair to stick above the resistance at 1.1521. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at 1.1421.
Japan government maintains the modest pace of economic development. However, Japan downgraded the exports assessment following global trade tensions. At the moment, USD/JPY is falling towards the support at 112.00 (50-day MA). If the USD gains, the pair will be able to rise above the resistance at 112.97 to the next resistance at 113.41.
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Trade euro on ECB comments.
More at: Trade euro on ECB comments.
24.10.2018
The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate on October 25 at 14:45 MT time. At 15:30, the central bank will hold a press conference.
The euro has been under big pressure because of the Italy budget issue. Moreover, the strengthening of the USD doesn’t let the EUR/USD pair to rise.
Although the market is sure that the central bank won’t change the interest rate, the market is waiting for comments on the further tapering of quantitative easing. If the bank sees a possibility to move to tighter monetary policy, the traders will consider it as a good sign. However, there are risks of the dovish comments caused by threats on the financial markets.
• Positive comments will boost the EUR.
• Negative comments will pull the EUR down.
Check the economic calendar
News to trade on October 25
Check the candles: News on October 25
25.10.2018
The European Central Bank will announce its official rate and conduct a press conference at 15:30 MT time. We do not anticipate the rate hike, however, the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi can make some hawkish comments for the EUR. For now, EUR/USD is testing the resistance at 1.1421. The hawkish comments by the European Central Bank President can make the pair rise to the next resistance at 1.1521. However, if the USD is strong or more concerns on the Italian budget come out, it will fall to the support at 1.1331.
As for the USD the level of core durable goods orders of the United States will be published. Analysts expect it to increase by 0.5%. If today’s data support the USD, the next resistance will be at 96.6. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at 96.02 to the next support at 95.25.
Yesterday Fitch placed Australia higher on the credibility rating. It made the aussie to rise towards the resistance at 0.7083. If the USD is strong, the pair will fall below the support at 0.7050. Otherwise, the pair will rise above 0.7083.
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Weekly CryptoNews
Check the graphs: Weekly Cryptonews on October 22-26
26.10.2018
Kevin Davitt, the analyst at CBOE: “Perhaps we are witnessing the maturation of a market. It’s far too early to declare this the “new normal” but the persistent range over the last few weeks may be hinting at a structural shift. Time will tell.”
After reaching its September highs last week, Bitcoin is trading in a range-bound market between the resistance at $6,595 and the support at $6,485. The digital currency keeps losing its volatility, as trading cryptocurrencies becomes less chaotic and more professional. Even the news factor did not affect the price for Bitcoin as it used to last year. Thus, the latest speculations around Tether failed to create a long-term market activity. Some analysts even compare the volatility of Bitcoin price to shares of some large corporations, showing how little they change. At the moment, the digital currency is trading near the 50-day MA at $6,522. Unexpected positive events on the market can force the price to rise above the resistance at $6,595 to the next resistance at $6,629. In case of negative factors, the price can fall below $6,485 to the next support at $6419.
In other news:
Tether destroyed 500 million of USDT tokens, still, more than 600 million coins remain outside the market for now. The capitalization of Tether fell below 2 billion dollars for the first time since January.
Regulations:
Coinbase got a license from the state of New-York to provide custodian services for saving cryptocurrencies.
Finance services agency in Japan gave an association of domestic crypto trading platforms official rights for regulating the crypto market.
Chinese authorities are going to tighten the Blockchain start-up regulations.
New releases:
Sony developed a remote crypto wallet that is not needed to be plugged into the PC through the USB. Moreover, Blockchain and Ledger companies presented their co-developed digital wallet Lockbox.
VanEck announced it destroyed all the possible reasons of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) rejection by the US Security exchange commission. A highly anticipated decision will be made on November 5.
The Novatti Group will use Stellar blockchain for launching stablecoin backed by the Australian dollar.
Bakkt announced a start of the trades of Bitcoin futures, however, we need to wait for the regulator’s approval.
Bitcoin $6,566.8(+0.40%)
DASH $155.05 (-0.55%)
Ethereum $206.75 (+1.19%)
Litecoin: $51.88 (+0.62%)
5 things you need to know this week
More at: Weekly focus on October 29-November 2
29.10.2018
US CB Consumer confidence (Tue, 17:00 MT time) – as you may know, this indicator shows the level of consumer spending. That means you will spend more if you confident in economic conditions. Analysts expect it to drop to 136.3 points from reaching 138.4 points in September. Remember, the higher-than-expected level is good for the greenback.
The Bank of Japan press conference (Wed, tentative) – some experts anticipate the probable changes to the monetary policy of the BOJ, following the latest statements from its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. A combination of the hawkish statements from the Bank of Japan and a sell-off in the equity markets can be quite supportive for the JPY.
Canadian GDP m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT time) – this is a nice opportunity to trade the loonie during this week, too. Last time the economic activity of the country increased by 0.2%. There is no official forecast yet, but it will definitely be announced before the release of the actual data. We will keep you updated.
Monetary policy summary from the Bank of England (Thu, 15:00 MT time) – while there are no expectations of the rate hike, the bank can make some supportive comments for the GBP. It will help the currency to recover during the uncertain Brexit times.
US non-farm employment change and employment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT time) – the NFP is forecast to expand to 191 thousand people from 134 thousand in September. At the same time, the unemployment rate will reach 3.8%, according to analysts. This level is higher than in September (3.7%), which can have a negative impact on the currency. We will see how the actual data will affect the USD.
Hot topics:
During the Brazil elections, Jair Bolsonaro from Social Liberal Party is proclaimed as a new president-elect. His victory speech contained his goals to reduce the size of the state and the public deficit and to cut bureaucracy and regulations.
French finance minister Bruno Le Maire told the press he did not see any risks of contagion from Italy’s budget crisis in the European Union (EU).
China is planning to impose the anti-dumping tax on the chemicals from the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
UK’s Exchequer Phillip Hammond will deliver his speech today at 18:30 MT time. During his latest interview, he told the country need to find a new tax and spending plan. He also suggested extending the supportive measures if the solution on Brexit problem is not reached soon.
Have a successful week of trading!
News to trade on October 30
Check the candles: News on October 30
30.10.2018
The CB consumer confidence for the US will be released today at 17:00 MT time. It is expected it to drop to 136.3 points from reaching 138.4 points in September. Up to this moment, the USD index is rising towards the resistance at 96.76 due to the drop of 10-year Treasury yields. If the situation on the equity market stabilizes, the US dollar index can fall to the support at 95.98.
Yesterday the US president Trump made some positive comments regarding his plans on reaching a great trade deal with China. It lifted the demand for the risk assets and made the aussie to rise above the resistance at 0.7077. If there is more positive news on the trade deal, the pair can stick above the resistance at 0.7134. If the USD is supported, the pair can fall down to the support at 0.7029. The NZD price was less certain yesterday and formed a Doji candlestick. Up to this moment, NZD/USD is testing the resistance at 0.6529, targeting the next resistance at 0.6694. The strong USD can make the pair fall downwards to the support at 0.6449.
EUR/USD fell yesterday following the Angela Merkel comments about her stepping down as a chancellor in 2021. Positive news for the Eurozone can make the EUR stick above the resistance at 1.1429. If the USD is stronger, the pair can fell below the support at 1.1307.
Yesterday UK’s Finance Minister Hammond failed to deliver positive comments on Brexit during the British budget release. As a result, the price closed lower the psychological level at 1.28. Positive news on Brexit can support the British pound and it can move up to the resistance at 1.2895. However, the strong USD can continue to push the pair downwards 1.2704.
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News to trade on October 31
Check the candlesticks: News on October 31
31.10.2018
The Bank of Japan announced no changes to its monetary policy in its statement. The interest rate remained at -0.10%, as it was widely expected. The economy of the country will continue to expand moderately. In addition, Japan made downward revisions to GDP (1.4% vs. 1.5% projected in July), CPI (1.4% vs. 1.5% projected in July) for 2019. Following the statement, USD/JPY rose above the resistance at 112.719. More positive comments on the outcome of the US-China trade war can support the USD and the pair can stick above the resistance at 113.569. If the JPY is stronger, the pair will fall below 112.719.
Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October. Also, the headline CPI for Australia declined to 1.8% reaching lower than the expected level. It made AUD/USD to test the support at 0.7077. The strong US dollar can make the pair to fall below 0.7077 to the next support at 0.7029. Otherwise, the pair will rise to the resistance at 0.7134.
The US dollar index was supported by the higher-than-expected level of consumer confidence. The indicator increased to 137.9 vs 135.3 expected. It made the price to test the resistance at its August highs at 96.76. Up to now, the currency is trading in the red zone. Positive news for the USD can make the price stick above 96.76. In case of negative news, the US dollar index will wall downwards to the support at 96.00.
As for Canada, there are two important events for today: the release of monthly GDP and the speech of the Bank of Canada Governor. GDP is anticipated to stay at the same level, however, the BOC governor Mr. Poloz can make hawkish comments which will support the currency. Recently, the BOC increased the interest rate to 1.75%, so the Governor can throw some hints on the current monetary policy of the bank. Today USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance at 1.3185. If the CAD is supported by today’s news, the pair will be able to fall below the support at 1.3076.
News to trade on November 1
Check the candles: News on November 1
01.11.2018
The main event for today is the Bank of England monetary policy summary and the press conference held by Mark Carney afterward. While there is no expectation of a rate hike, the GBP can be supported by the hawkish comments. Yesterday the UK Brexit minister Raab was confident about reaching the Brexit deal on the 21 of November. It lifted GBP/USD towards the resistance at 1.2895. Hawkish statements by the Bank of England can make the pair to stick above2895. Negative news can push the cable down to the support at 1.2704.
The Chinese government announced further plans for stimulating the economy as the manufacturing data continues to decline, following the trade tensions between the US and China. It lifted the risk-on sentiment among the investors and made the risk currencies, such as the aussie and the kiwi to rise. AUD/USD crossed the resistance at 0.7134 towards the next resistance at 0.7164 (50-day MA). If the USD is strong or the uncertainties across the equity market increase, the pair will drop below the support at 0.7077. As for NZD/USD, the pair followed the same scenario. Up to now, it is testing the resistance at 0.6594. Strong USD will make NZD/USD to drop below 0.6529.
The Chinese yuan, in its turn, rose from its weakest level. USD/CNH fell below the support at 6.9529. The next support is at 6.9287. If the USD is strong, the pair will go up to the resistance at 6.9522.
The US dollar index is declining following the strong gains across the equity markets. The next support for the price lies at 95.15. The upcoming release of manufacturing PMI for the US at 17:00 can change the situation. Despite the index is expected to drop to 59 from 59.8 points, a higher-than-expected data can support the USD. In that case, the resistance for the price lies at 96.76.
It seems like the risk-on market sentiment does not affect the direction of the price for the Gold. The price surged above the resistance at $1,221. However, higher-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI can support the USD and thus push the commodity downwards the support at $1,208.
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Weekly CryptoNews
More at: Cryptonews for October 29- November 2
02.11.2018
Tom Jessop, head of Fidelity Digital Asset Services: “I think we are starting to see an acceleration… I don’t know what phase (innovator, early-adopter, early majority, etc.) we are in, but I think that with some of these recent announcements we are now seen as this interesting and transformative asset class… So, we can expect more news heading into 2019 that raises the bar and helps growth in the [crypto and blockchain] market.”
Happy Birthday, Bitcoin! 10 years ago Nakamoto published the whitepaper of the granddad for all cryptocurrencies. It has been a complicated period for the digital asset with its ups and downs, however, a lot of achievements have been made since the beginning of its route. We wish it more recognition and adequate regulations in the upcoming years. Finally, to reach the moon!
Last days Bitcoin was making small movements towards this direction. Digital asset rose from the fall after the hacking attack of the Canadian crypto trading platform MapleChange. On Thursday, the price for Bitcoin tested the resistance at $6,394. If Bitcoin is supported by positive events, it can rise to the next resistance at $6,509. In case of negative news, the pair will fall to the support at $6,334. In case of the breakthrough, the next support at $6,218.
Altcoins:
Stablecoin Tether stabilized, however, it has lost around 1 billion of its capitalization.
Regulations:
Financial Services Authority (FSA) will review the ban of crypto derivatives in 2019.
New releases:
Canadian crypto trading platform Maplechange announced the hackers stole all of its money and afterward deleted its site. Scam alert?
Bank of America patented the method of holding private keys, which can be used in cryptocurrencies.
Ernst&Young presented a new tool for private transactions on the Ethereum public blockchain, using a protocol with zero disclosure.
Vitaly Buterin announced Ethereum 2.0, which will work on POS-mining.
Hong Cong trading platform HKEX will apply Blockchain to analyze the trading results.
Bithumb will launch a platform with security tokens in the US as a partnership program with SeriesOne investment company.
JP Morgan is planning to tokenize gold using its blockchain Quorum.
Venezuela’s controversial cryptocurrency Petro was released. It can be bought only from the Superintendency of Cryptoassets and Related Activities (Sunacrip).
Other:
John McAfee will run for president in 2020 to promote cryptocurrency. Will he make Bitcoin great again?
Bitcoin $6,406.8(+0.57%)
DASH $157.6 (+0.46%)
Ethereum $200.35 (+0.89%)
Litecoin: $50.5 (+1.90%)
5 important things this week will bring us!
More at: http://bit.ly/2PH7nOP
05.11.2018
US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Mon, 17:00 MT time) – the level of business conditions for the service sector is expected to moderate from 61.6 to 59.3 for October. The increase of the index in September was unexpected and connected with an improvement in the sub-indices. If the actual level outperforms the forecasts, the US dollar index will rise.
Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT time) – we do not anticipate the rate hike, however, the press release may contain clues to the future revisions of the bank’s policy.
Reserve bank of New Zealand rate statement (Wed, 22:00 MT time) – the central bank of New Zealand will conduct its press conference. As well, we expect the interest rate to remain at 1.75%, but the bank can throw some hints on changing its monetary policy.
US Federal funds rate and the Federal open market committee (FOMC) statement (Thu, 21:00 MT time) – We can expect the FOMC to downgrade its assessment of business investment growth after the slowdown in nonresidential fixed investment growth. The falls in equity prices tightened the financial conditions of a country, so the FOMC may discuss some measures to support the economic conditions.
British preliminary GDP q/q (Fri, 11:30 MT time) – the economic growth for the 3rd quarter is forecast to increase to 0.6%. A higher-than-expected level will support the GBP.
Hot topics:
The US anticipates the midterm congressional elections on Tuesday, November 6. The preliminary data suggests Democrats are most likely to take control of the House, while Republicans will continue to control the Senate. If the Republican Party keeps controlling most of the sits, the USD will be supported. In case Democrats will win, the greenback most likely will fall.
UK Brexit Secretary Raab continued the negotiations on the Irish border. He wants the UK Prime minister Theresa May to take the hard line over it. Earlier, she announced the final paper on Brexit deal will be out on Tuesday.
The Chinese president Xi made a statement about his plans on the open country economy to the world amid the trade war with the US.
Have a successful week of trading!
News to trade on November 6
Check the candles: News on November 6
06.11.2018
The main event for the US dollar for today is mid-term Congressional elections. According to the latest polls, the opposite party of Democrats will likely take control of the House of Representatives. The markets liked the Republican reforms as well as Trump’s tax cuts. If the Democrats win, the greenback will fall. In that case, watch the support at 95.7. If the Republicans win, the greenback can move up to the resistance at 96.35.
US president Trump said the positive outcome on the trade deal with China is highly possible. China, in its turn, agreed to conduct the negotiations. It supported the Antipodeans, driving AUD/USD towards the resistance at 0.7286 and NZD/USD towards 0.6719.
In other news for the Australian dollar, the Reserve bank of Australia announced no changes to its monetary policy. Low rates are still supporting the economy, housing markets are falling, business conditions are viewed as positive. The overall outlook for the labor market remains positive. The press conference did not have a significant effect on the currency, as the trade talks are playing a more important role at the moment. In case of negative news on this topic, the AUD will fall downwards to the support at 0.6615.
As for NZD/USD, there are two releases today at 23:45 MT time: employment change and unemployment rate. According to experts, the employment change will increase by 0.5%. A higher-than-expected data will be good for the currency. The level of unemployment will reach 4.4%. If the actual level is lower, the kiwi will be supported. For now, the pair is testing the resistance at 100-day MA at 0.6658. If the employment data will outperform the forecasts, it can rise towards 0.6719. If the USD is strong, the pair will fall. The first support is at 0.6615.
The Brexit headlines are still the market movers. Yesterday, the EU suggested a compromise on the Irish border backstop. It involves the unique way of ending a temporary customs arrangement with the union. However, the British cabinet of ministers is planning to suggest the other solution, which would be more suitable for Great Britain. GBP/USD is testing 100-day MA at the moment. Positive news on the outcome can lift the cable above the resistance at 1.3105, otherwise, it can fall towards 1.2899.
The gold is supported by the election uncertainties. If the Democrats win, the price can move upwards to the resistance at $1,242. If the current party leads in the elections, it will increase the risk-on sentiment in the stock market and, therefore, push the price of a safe-haven asset downwards to the support at $1,227.
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News to trade on November 7
Here the candlesticks: News on November 7
07.11.2018
During the mid-term Congressional elections in the US, the Democrats took more than 30 sits in the House of Representatives. The Republicans will have the control of the Congress. The divided Congress will make it difficult for US president Trump to apply any arguable domestic reforms such as immigration reform and reform on infrastructure investments. That is why analysts anticipate Trump to pay attention to foreign and trade policies. The election results weakened the USD, making the US dollar index test the support at 95.72. If the USD is supported, the index will rise towards the resistance at 96.35. Otherwise, it will fall below 95.72.
The weak greenback strengthened other key currency pairs.
The pair EUR/USD got the upside momentum from the election results and the risk-on sentiment in the equity market. For now, it is testing the resistance at 1.1461. A further weakness of the USD will help the euro to stick above 1.1461. However, negative news in the Eurozone can pull the pair downwards to the support at 1.1381.
GBP/USD continues to move up on this week’s Brexit hopes and election results. Yesterday, the cable rose to the resistance at 1.3105. More concerns on the Brexit outcome can help the pair to climb above 1.3105. The next resistance lies at 1.3248. However, new uncertainties can push GBP/USD below 100-day MA at 1.3036. In that case, the support level to watch is at 1.2899.
The weak USD also affected USD/JPY. The risk-on sentiment in the equity markets did not hold the pair near the resistance at 113.797. On a daily chart at 10:30 MT time, the election results made the USD to trade against the JPY in the red zone. If the pair extends falls, the support is at 112.785. In case the USD is supported by the news, the pair will return to the resistance at 113.797.
In other news, the most anticipated event for today from the economic calendar is the press conference of the Reserve bank of New Zealand at 23:00 MT time. No major changes to its monetary policy are expected, however, the bank can surprise with the hawkish comments, especially after yesterday’s strong employment release. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% (vs 4.4% expected) and employment change increased by 1.1% (vs. 0.5% expected). As a result, the NZD blew off crossing the resistance at 0.6719. For now, NZD/USD is targeting the resistance at 0.6793. New negative comments on the trade war can weaken the kiwi and push it below 0.6719. Hawkish comments from the RBNZ can help it to stick above 0.6793.
Yesterday, Iran’s oil minister said the sanction from the US would not cut Iran off the oil markets. Earlier, Trump commented the sanctions would come into effect slowly to avoid the high prices. In addition, the US allowed 8 biggest importers keep buying Iranian oil. Brent fell to its August levels trading near $71.94 per barrel. The support for the price lies at $70.47. Today we anticipate the release of crude oil inventories. If the data is lower than the forecast, the prices will rise and the resistance to watch is at $74.24.
As for WTI, it fell to $61.94 per barrel. The next support is at $61. Shortage of oil production will push the price to the resistance at $64.45.
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News to trade on November 8
More at: News on November 8
08.11.2018
The most significant event for today is the FOMC statement at 21:00 MT time. The rate hike is not expected, however, the tone of the statement may affect the USD. The Beige Book released on October 24 showed the Federal Reserve worries about the possible uncertainties. That is why most experts expect the dovish tone of the statement. However, the Fed can surprise with the hawkish data despite yesterday’s weakness of the USD.
If we look at the daily chart of the US dollar index, the index is trading within a range after the massive fall on November 1. On H1, yesterday’s falls during the day made the price to test the support at 95.72. However, it managed to rebound. The next strong resistance lies at 96.35. If the FOMC comments are hawkish, it can stick above 96.35. Otherwise, it can fall below 95.72.
How will it affect EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold?
Yesterday’s news resulted in the mixed trades of EUR/USD, forming a Doji candlestick. If the USD gains back its strength, the pair can fall downwards to the support at 1.1380. If the greenback still weakens, the pair will rise towards 1.1461.
Yesterday, the UK PM Theresa May showed a draft of the Brexit deal to her Cabinet. The next step will be the negotiations between the UK and European officials on the Irish border-free trade flows. In combination with the weak US dollar, it helped GBP/USD to cross the resistance at 1.3105.
However, new uncertainties keep coming from the news, affecting the pair. Today, EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said they won’t soften their views on the Irish border backstop, until Theresa May works out a decent solution. According to the latest news, May asked European officials to give her more time to complete a deal with Cabinet members. More uncertainties will pull the cable down to the support at 100-day MA at 1.3105. Positive news, on the other side, will help the pair to rise upwards to the resistance at 1.3248.
Rising Treasury yields help USD/JPY to rise towards the pivot resistance at 113.797. If the USD is supported by the hawkish FOMC, the pair can climb above 113.797. The next resistance lies at 114.405. If the USD is weak, the pair can fall. The support for the pair lies at 112.785.
Yesterday the price of the gold managed to rise amid the elections, however, as the USD straightened, the asset stuck below the pivot point at $1,227. The strong USD will pull the price farther, towards the support at $1,217 , which is also 100-day MA. If the dovish tone of the FOMC statement results in the weak USD, the gold can gain. In that case, the resistance for the commodity lies at the central weekly pivot at $1,227.
In other news:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy statement was out yesterday. The bank kept its interest rate at 1.75%. The statement included a possible rate rising in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2020. However, the RBNZ Governor added that the rate cut would be also possible in the near future. Despite the negative tone of the statement, NZD/USD tested the resistance at 0.6793 yesterday. If the USD gains amid the FOMC statement, the pair can fall towards 0.6719. Otherwise, it can stick above 0.6793.
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Weekly CryptoNews
More at: http://bit.ly/2SWK5Df
09.11.2018
BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes: “Contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin requires volatility if it is ever to gain mainstream adoption. The price of Bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to communicate the health of the ecosystem. It advertises to the world that something is happening–whether that is positive or negative is irrelevant.”
The week started bullish for Bitcoin. On Wednesday, the price crossed the resistance at 50-day MA at $6,516 and afterward tested the next psychological resistance at $6,563. However, it failed to continue moving towards $6,662 and bounced back below $6,516. Despite the market speculations, the volatility of the digital asset remains extremely low. ATR is situated at its lowest levels. If buyers take over, it can push the price towards $6,516 again. In case of a bear market, the support lies at the pivot point at $6,400.
Other news:
Regulations:
The People’s Bank of China is planning to ban airdrop as it can be used for conducting hidden ICOs.
Taiwanese financial regulator banned anonymous crypto transactions and obliged trading platforms to pass personal data of clients to it.
The Swiss financial market supervisory authority advised banks to set the risk coefficient for crypto assets at 800% to cover market and credit risks, regardless of whether the positions are held in the banking or trading book.
Tax regulating department of Thailand is planning to use blockchain for following the tax evasions.
Government banks of Venezuela started to show the sum on clients’ accounts in Petro cryptocurrency.
The Brazilian prosecutor’s office started the investigation of the money-laundering through Deltec Bank which is Tether partner.
The BBVA bank from Spain gave the first credit with financial data recorded in blockchain Ethereum. The approximate sum of the loan is $150 million.
The French government will make the taxation for crypto asset owners easier. The tax will reduce from 36% to 30%.
New releases:
OKEx launched margin trading of XRP/BTC and LTC/BTC. As a result, Ripple rose and outperformed Ethereum, while Litecoin ignored the news.
It’s now possible to buy Litecoin for the fiat currencies at Litecoin.com.
Events to trade on BTC, Ethereum, Litecoin and Dash in the upcoming week:
November 12 - Bitcoin (BTC) - Bakkt Bitcoin BTC Futures Launch
November 15 - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) - Hard Fork
Bitcoin $6,406.8(+0.57%)
DASH $168.1 (-5.9%)
Ethereum $200.35 (+0.89%)
Litecoin: $50.5 (+1.90%)
5 important things this week will bring us!
More at: News on November 12-16
12.11.2018
British CPI y/y (Wed, 11:30 MT time) - The level of inflation for September declined to 2.4% from 2.7% in August. The index dropped because of a slowdown in food, transport, recreation, and closing prices. This month it is expected to reach 2.5%. Will it support the struggling GBP?
US CPI & core CPI m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT time) – the level of inflation in the United States rose by 0.1% in September, as well as the core inflation excluding energy and food. In October, CPI and core CPI are forecast to come in 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
Australian employment change & unemployment rate (Thu, 2:30 MT time) – Australian level of employment increased by 5,600 jobs in September. This release came out lower than expected 15,200 jobs. In October we anticipate Australia to add 20,300 jobs. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 5% in September from 5.3% in August. Analyst forecast the level of unemployment to reach 5.1%.If the employment change is higher than expected and the unemployment rate is lower than expected, this will be the good news for the Australia dollar.
British retail sales m/m (Thu, 11:30 MT time) – UK retail sales fell by 0.8% in September, worse than forecasts of -0.4%. In October, the indicator is expected to increase by 0.1%
US retail sales & core retail sales m/m (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – As for the US data, last month the level of retail sales came out lower than expected. It rose by 0.1%. This time we expect the indicator to increase by 0.6%. Speaking of core retail sales, it declined by 0.1% in September. In October, the change in sales excluding automobiles is forecast to increase by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected data will support the US dollar.
Hot topics:
The British pound extends falls as the European Union rejected the latest May’s plans for an independent mechanism that would allow Britain to leave from any temporary customer agreement. In addition, 4 British ministers are on verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit.
At the beginning of this week, the Italian government prepares to resubmit its draft budget. The target deficit of 2.4% would remain unchanged, however, Italy may set a growth target of 1% instead of a previous target of 1,5%. We will keep an eye on a European Commission deadline on Tuesday.
During the OPEC+ the plans for cutting the supply in 2019 were announced. OPEC+ would keep inventory in a narrow band and maintain a long-term market balance. It supported oil prices.
Have a successful week of trading!
News to trade on November 13
Check the candles! : News on November 13
13.11.2018
The British quarterly average earnings report was released today at 11:30 MT time. It reached 3% in this quarter as well as it was expected. It gave a positive momentum for the British pound. Hopes that the British Prime Minister Theresa May will present a draft of a workable Brexit deal by the November’s EU summit exist but still not clear.
Yesterday the strong US dollar in a combination with never-ending Brexit tensions made the cable form a gap and test the support at 1.2817. Today’s release helped the British pound to test the resistance at 1.2896. However, more negative news on Brexit can push the pair below 1.2817.
Italy is expected to resubmit its unfortunate budget today. Last month the European Commission rejected its budget, due to the lack of deficit control. However, Italy made very little changes to it. So, if the European Commission changes its mind today, watch EUR/USD turns bid.
As we can see from the chart, yesterday a strong US dollar pushed the pair below the psychological level at 1.13 and made it fall below the next support at 1.1265. A series of lower highs created a bearish scenario for the pair. If the Italian budget to be approved today, the pair will have a chance to cross 1.1265. The next resistance lies at 1.13. In case of more uncertainties, the next support lies at 1.1197.
During the Asian session, Chinese trade war negotiator announced his plans on visiting the US for trade talks. He attempts to ease rising trade tensions ahead of a meeting of Chinese president Xi and US president Trump.
As a result, the Australian dollar bounced from the support at 0.7171 and is heading towards the resistance at 0.7237. If the bullish pressure continues, the aussie can stick above 0.7237. The strong USD can pull the pair below the support at 0.7171. The next support for the pair lies at 0.7117.
As for NZD/USD, the pair is testing the resistance at 0.6726. The next resistance lies at 0.6825. If the USD is strong, the pair can fall downwards to the support at 100-day MA at 0.6658.
Positive update of the trade negotiations increased the risk-on sentiment across the Asian equity markets. That is why USD/JPY is targeting the resistance at 114.268. The bullish pressure will help the pair to stick above 114.268. If the USD is weak, the pair will fall below the support at 113.609.
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News to trade on November 14
More at: News on November 14
14.11.2018
The British pound will be in focus today. At first, today’s CPI release increased by a lower-than-expected level of +0.1%.
After that, Theresa May is scheduled to meet with her cabinet to discuss the draft Brexit agreement at 16:00 MT time. If the Cabinet agrees, the next step will be to get the approval at the House of Commons. For now, the DUP from Northern Ireland and the Labour leadership expressed their negative opinions. However, Theresa May thinks the fear of a no-deal Brexit can drive Conservatives and Labor party to support the agreement.
According to newspapers, the UK Cabinet Ministers Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove, and Cox said they would agree on the draft Brexit paper.
Up to now, Brexit headlines are driving the pair.
Higher-than-expected CPI data can give a positive momentum to GBP/USD and help it to cross 50-day MA and 100-day MA and test the resistance at 1.3036. If the Brexit agreement will be approved, the cable will stick above 1.3036. However, if more uncertainties take over the market, the pair will fall below the 1.2896 support.
CPI of the US is also gaining attention today at 15:30 MT. Analysts expect it to rise by 0.3% in October. As for the core CPI, it is forecast to increase by 0.2%. Comments by Chinese president Xi ahead of his meeting with President Trump at G20 and positive mood across the equity markets weakened the US Dollar, however, the inflation data can support the currency.
On the daily chart of the US Dollar index, the index is trading lower than yesterday. If CPI is higher than expected, the index can rise above the resistance at 97.21. Weak CPI data and risk-on sentiment among traders can pull it down towards the 96.35 support.
Yesterday the Italian government kept the budget targets for deficit and GDP for 2019 unchanged. In response, the European Commission may initiate the immoderate deficit procedure. If the USD gains after the CPI release, EUR/USD will fall below the support at 1.1265. If the bearish pressure for the pair weakens, the pair will stick above the resistance at 1.13.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut the demand forecasts for the OPEC crude oil for 2019. Up to now, WTI is trading at November 2017 levels, testing the resistance at $56.26. If the easing of the sanctions continues, WTI can fall towards the next support at $53.25
Have a successful trading!
