95% of traders lose money. They lose to the market, they lose to the brokers and more importantly they lose to themselves.
That sounds about right.
Were it not for the need to use a stop loss to prevent an account balance wipe out in one trade, possible as people do not know where price will move to or when, and if it were not necessary to pay the broker the spread, entries would have a 50/50 chance of possible success.
Its a bit like trying to pin the tail on the donkey, with a blind fold on, and without hands.
The trouble with FX is that you are playing a game at world class level from day 1, there is no minor league start in. At the top competing against the best of the best straight away
Enough screen time and education you start to win and become good.
Theoretically placing stop loss is important, however, in reality our stop loss orders are most frequently being triggered by the whipsaws before the market resumes the same direction we were originally in, ending up we punch ourselves left and right!
Through my years of trading, I finally came to conclusion that I have my stop order but will never place in during trading hours. I will wait until the market closes for the day and confirms my stop loss level is triggered, then I will place my stop loss with market order irrespective of the prices.
One may say it will end up losing more. Yes, I agree to that statement but by doing so, I have saved many unnecessary whipsaws which will otherwise have costed me many times more.
Agreed, one has to lose enough money before one start to win and become good. Haha, like me, I have lost more than USD1 million in 1980s before I came to understand and learn what forex trading is all about and how to become the 5% winner.
Join the club
Yes that happens often and is very annoying.
You are “competing” against computer algorithms / artificial intelligence.
I probably know more about charts and online trading than most ever will, or could ever imagine, and i still lost to the AI.
Well i will end this one right here, I am a little too professional to get into tit for tat comments.
All I will say is I earn a living from the markets and not had a losing year in the last 5 so maybe you just need to rethink what you are doing. I know guys who have traded for 20 years know all the patterns etc and still dont have a clue
This is just a cliche that people say to sound good. Brokers in eu have to show what % traders lose as part of he esma ruling and actually it’s more around 75%. Therefore you have a better chance than you think.
Also I’m not a big fan of using the word competing when it comes to trading. I’m actually the opposite, I want to be popular, I want people to be buying before me, buying while I’m buying and buying after me. I dont want to be in competition with anyone.
Lol - then you have to think like the robot - it lives over on the right side of the chart.
Cable today - left siders bought on the good pmi - all they did was to get themselves stopped out and then help the selling algos primed for next Thursday.
How can you maximize profit on a sell? - build it up before the sell, i.e. create the position for the inevitable fall - accumulate is the fancy word.
Hmmm. what if the algo is wrong - the boe didnt cut! - exit the entire position thus creating even more buying momentum - then spin.
“spinners are winners” according that L. Williams guy
I read that line in Donald Trump’s voice.
100 pips since that - has reached the inevitable 1.3000 level - lower highs on the way down, i.e. more sells.
Buys that jumped on pmi (break of previous week’s high or some other chart based trade) long since gone.
Right side again - likely to trundle around the level for while, sellers not likely to exit and TP just yet.
That was 19 hrs ago - price since went down to 1.2980 and up to 1.3020 - the mid range obviously being the 1.3000 level
Right side today - not likely much action, just some more trundling
Talking of right side and not knowing where price is going to go - there were guys on the forum discussing straddles - the means by which some try to trade both sides because they do not have any idea of likely direction.
Well here is one - 1.00pm gmt the BOE announce - so they could try a straddle on the FTSE - a cut will push the index up for 2 reasons - one a cheaper pound and 2 a cut is good for business. So if US stocks are looking good at the US opening then a straddle that favours a buy (perhaps no tp)?
Edit: here is a nice simple analysis of the BOE decision making process.
5 hrs later - price has trundled along the 3000 level as anticipated - so the recent sells are holding on.
FTSE may decline a little along with S&P - US10yr - some buying atm.
Edit: only thing that could upset the apple tart cooking is a leak/rumour
Ok - 7 hrs later - S&P fell a little now closed .
US 10yr price continued upwards.
Oh - and cable - continued it’s trundle 20pips either side of the 3000 level.
Bringing this live commentary to a close, was intended to show that although we may not know where price is headed it is possible to anticipate direction with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
The S&P thing - not a good idea to buy if the 10yr is heading north - usually a reasonable buy on such a day is XAU/USD
Happy trades to pound all pound traders tomorrow.
The reason for this high percentage of loosing Forex traders is, that most of the people trading Forex are no traders. It is too easy to join the market, and many participants are not serious enough- it’s just more a game like placing sport bets for them, without going deeper in analyzing details.( okay, some never will learn it, but they are not the reason for the bad statistic)
Those who are on the positive side, are those who “have time to invest more time”
19 hours ago:
OK - final point - before the pound action gets started.
Then a little later:
Here is what has happened since (arrow time of post) - ref Oanda
XAU/USD:
S&P Index:
USD/JPY:
WTI:
(the spike up was a report re rockets saudi arabia - have mentioned quite a few times that oil sells along with stocks except on mid-east news)
And of course the indicator itself - the US10yr:
There is a central theme in all of the above charts RISK
Risk is like the flu - it is catching, and any one small thing can cause it’s spread - the bad numbers on Boeing, the virus in China…
To know something is knowledge, knowledge comes with learning and learning causes right decisions.
Edit:
Just read this current post - now it is old news this morning:
(for learners - read yield as the opposite of price)
I doubt if many will have read that post yesterday morning, likely even if they did they would skim since often learners figure that stocks, bonds, wti and gold are zilch to do with forex.
So I’ll repeat the first sentence - posted 2 trading days ago:
Over to Forexlive this evening:
As stocks had lower, yields had lower, and gold moves higher, the dollar is getting hit versus the EUR, GBP, JPY and the CHF.
(for learners remember yields on bonds are inverse to the bond price, the more expensive the bond then the less return (yield) )
Hmmm… if reading then maybe check today’s charts on the above instruments as we come into the close.
Then if you are a chartist like the OP then have a read at John Murphy.
There is only one market, algos execute the trades, there is one dominant theme - RISK (btw that’s me, not Murphy)
Think about that - Murphy says that Gold is often viewed as an alternative currency to USD - especially in times of risk off - it is more than a precious metal insofar as market context.
Eur/Usd since last post - draw a horiz for the techies - it’s easy to see
Anyways - talking to myself, the way i like it, who cares :):
I had second thoughts about that horiz - the OP mentioned Algos - they execute orders but mostly they are not that intelligent - they are Robots after all.
So if you are a dumb algo and you need to enter the market - your execution time is milliseconds and worse - you have no brain with which to think.
Therefore your master will tell you that must enter at the most liquid point - slippage means thinking and decision making - not in your realm.
So here is their marker, that horiz for this week, their level - 00 /20 /50 /80 - no thinking