Forex Trading Signals And Market Overview 06.02.2015

GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:
Trading Positions:
EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1410, target 1.1650, stop-loss 1.1320
EUR/GBP trading strategy: long at 0.7485, target 0.7600, stop-loss 0.7430
EUR/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0540, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0460
EUR/JPY trading strategy: long at 134.10, target 137.00, stop-loss 133.10
NZD/USD trading strategy: long at 0.7305, target 0.7600, stop-loss 0.7330

Pending Orders:
GBP/USD trading strategy: buy at 1.5280, if filled target 1.5480, stop-loss 1.5185, risk factor: **
AUD/USD trading strategy: buy at 0.7780, if filled target 0.7930, stop-loss 0.7710, risk factor: **
GBP/JPY trading strategy: buy at 179.20, if filled target 182.80, stop-loss 178.10, risk factor: ***
AUD/NZD trading strategy: sell at 1.0610, if filled target 1.0440, stop-loss 1.0670, risk factor: **

EUR/USD: Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls Should Give The EUR/USD A Boost
(long for 1.1650)
[li]German industrial output rose 0.1% mom, undercutting the consensus forecast for a 0.4% mom gain. The weakness of the German data was the result of a big monthly fall in construction output. The core manufacturing sector saw a solid 0.5% growth, driven by strong gains in intermediate and consumer goods production. Despite weaker December data, total German production posted a solid 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter as a whole vs. a contraction of 0.3% in the third quarter.
[/li][li]Today’s German data are in line with our scenario of economic recovery in the Euro zone. The recovery is still too weak to diminish downward pressure on inflation. However, it may be strong enough to reverse bearish EUR/USD trend.
[/li][li]On the other hand, U.S. macroeconomic data are getting weaker. The U.S. trade deficit in December widened sharply to USD 46.6 bn, its highest level since November 2012, as a stronger USD appeared to suck in imports and weigh on exports. We should notice that December’s shortfall was wider than the government had assumed when it reported last week that GDP had expanded at a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter. Trade was estimated to have subtracted 1.02 percentage point from GDP growth. The revision of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter will be negative.
[/li][li]Another report showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 11k to a seasonally adjusted 278k for the week ended January 31.
[/li][li]Today’s market will focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data. The market consensus shows that non-farm payrolls increased 234k in January. The estimates of our analytical team show that the reading could be lower.
[/li][li]As we expect lower U.S. non-farm payrolls, it is justified to keep our long EUR/USD position with the target of 1.2650.

Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.1499 (high Feb 5), 1.1534 (high Feb 3), 1.1652 (high Jan 22)
Support: 1.1360 (10-dma), 1.1304 (low Feb 5), 1.1280 (low Feb 2)

GBP/USD: Waiting For BOE Projection On February 18
(buy at 1.5280)
[li]The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold yesterday, as widely expected. The bank made no further comments.

[li]Investors are waiting for the Inflation Report that will be published on Thursday, February 12. Minutes from this-week MPC meeting will be released on February 18.
[/li][li]Financial markets are betting on a first rate hike only in the middle of 2016, which in our opinion is too far in the future. Our estimates suggest that the Bank of England is likely to raise its medium-term inflation forecast even if it cuts its short-term view as a response to a fall in oil prices. Such a projection would give a boost to the GBP/USD.
[/li][li]Britain’s foreign trade deficit grew in December to GBP 10.154 bn from GBP 9.283 bn in November. Exports increased 0.1% mom while imports jumped by 2.7% mom, pushed up by a nearly 40% gain in the oil imports. The outlook for coming months is brighter as PMI data showed that British manufacturing export order growth hit a five-month high in January.
[/li][li]The GBP/USD rose strongly this week and we took profit on our previous GBP/USD long (1.5040-1.5230). Britain’s PMIs in manufacturing, construction and services sectors all came in better than forecast, while separate data showed UK house prices jumping unexpectedly. The GBP remained relatively strong also against the EUR.
[/li][li]We expect a rise in the GBP/USD to be continued, but with lower pace. That is why we have placed a buy order on the GBP/USD at 1.5280. If filled, the target will be set at 1.5480, just below the resistance of 1.5481 (23.6% of 1.7192-1.4952)

Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.5481 (23.6% of 1.7192-1.4952), 1.5584 (high Jan 2), 1.5619 (high Dec 31, 2014)
Support: 1.5169 (low February 5), 1.5141 (low February 4), 1.4990 (low February 3)

AUD/USD: No Hint Of Further Easing From The RBA
(buy at 0.7780)
[li]The Reserve Bank of Australia gave a more weaker assessment on the economy and said that growth was likely to remain below trend for longer. The RBA now sees the economy growing in a 2.25-3.25% pace through December 2015, then speeding up to 3-4% next year. This compared with a previous forecast of 2.5-3.5% for 2015 and 2.75-4.25% for 2016.
[/li][li]The RBA added: “The slightly weaker outlook for GDP growth in the near term implies that the unemployment rate is likely to rise a bit further and peak a bit later than earlier expected.”
[/li][li]The central bank now sees underlying inflation well contained in its 2-3% target band this year and next vs. 2.25-3.25% previously. The RBA remind investors that it was well aware of the risks facing the housing market as record-low borrowing costs spur speculative activity in that sector.
[/li][li]The RBA said that despite the recent steep decline in the AUD, it remained above its fundamental value given the substantial drop in commodity prices over the past year.
[/li][li]The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates on Tuesday but in today’s report did not explicitly open the door to further cuts in rates as it was expected by some investors.
[/li][li]In our opinion a rate cut in March is rather unlikely (but much depends on commodities’ prices). That is why our outlook for the AUD (and highly correlated NZD) is slightly bullish. We placed a buy order on the AUD/USD at 0.7780.
[/li][li]We have raised the target on our NZD/USD long to 0.7600 and still looking to get short on the AUD/NZD at 1.0610 as improving risk appetite should be supportive for the kiwi.

Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 0.7860 (hourly high Feb 6), 0.7882 (38.2% of 0.8295-0.7627), 0.7907 (high Jan 29)
Support: 0.7733 (low Feb 5), 0.7685 (hourly low Feb 3), 0.7627 (low Feb 3)

USD/CAD: Eyes On Twin Jobs Reports
(we stay sideways)
[li]Canada’s trade deficit widened to CAD 649 million, but was much lower than median forecast of CAD 1200 million. Statistics Canada’s official release also cut November’s deficit to CAD 335 million from an initial CAD 644 million.
[/li][li]Exports rose by 3.5% mom, pushed up by a 13.1% jump in shipments of metal and non-metallic products. This helped outweigh a 10.3% decline in the value of energy product exports. Low oil prices hit revenues of Canada’s oil producers, but lower oil prices weigh also on the CAD making exports more competitive.
[/li][li]Imports grew 2.3% mom, pushed up by a 9.3% rise in energy products as a number of refineries returned to full capacity after maintenance.
[/li][li]The commodities-linked CAD against the USD yesterday as crude prices rebounded. The market is focused today on the releases of jobs reports in the USA and Canada. We expect slightly lower reading of U.S. non-farm payrolls. Canadian employment is expected to rise by 4.5k, which should be supportive for the CAD.
[/li][li]The move on the USD/CAD could be strong today, but we stay sideways. No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.2461 (session high Feb 6), 1.2585 (high Feb 5), 1.2591 (high Feb 4)
Support: 1.2394 (low Feb 5), 1.2390 (low Feb 4), 1.2353 (low Feb 3)

Source: Forex Trading Strategies

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