GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions
EUR/USD: long at 1.2450, target 1.2250, stop-loss 1.2530
USD/JPY: long at 118.60, target 121.50, stop-loss 117.80
USD/CHF: long at 0.9650, target 0.9800, stop-loss 0.9590
USD/CAD:long at 1.1420, target 1.1640, stop-loss 1.1540
EUR/GBP: short at 0.7930, target 0.7800, stop-loss 0.7990
EUR/CHF: long at 1.2025, target 1.2040, stop-loss 1.1995
GBP/JPY: long at 186.10, target 190.40, stop-loss 184.70
GROWTHACES.COM Pending Orders
NZD/USD: sell at 0.7900, if filled target 0.7740, stop-loss 0.7960
AUD/USD: sell at 0.8330, if filled target 0.8180, stop-loss 0.8400
EUR/USD: How To Trade Ahead Of FOMC Meeting?
(get short ahead of FOMC meeting next week)
[ul]
[li]Yesterday’s data showed U.S. retail sales beat expectations on all fronts in November. The headline figure was up 0.7% mom and 4.8% yoy (vs. median forecast of 0.4% mom), ex-autos sales was up 0.5% mom (forecast of 0.1% mom), and the core (excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services) up 0.6% (forecast of 0.4% mom). The yoy growth was the highest since February 2012. [/li][li]The sales figures indicate that consumers have pumped up their holiday shopping, despite initial signs within the retail industry that Black Friday shopping plunged compared to the previous year. Important figures will be released today. Investors are waiting for University of Michigan consumer confidence index (14:55 GMT). The median forecast is at the level 89.5, but in our opinion a slightly higher reading is possible (90.0). [/li][li]Euro zone industrial production rose only 0.1% mom (below expectations of 0.2% mom) and 0.7% yoy in October. Energy output fell 1.9% mom and 2.5% yoy. This offset much of the 1.8% mom rise in non-durable consumer goods and the 0.9% mom increase in the output of durable consumer goods.[/li][li]What should we focus on next week? Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will end its final FOMC meeting of the year. In the opinion of GrowthAces.com there is high likelihood that the Fed will eliminate the “considerable time” from its statement. Forex traders will certainly focus on this potential change in the wording. [/li][li]Vice Chair Stan Fischer said this month: “It is clearer that we are closer to getting rid of that than we were a few months ago.” And he added: “It would not be appropriate for me to give you a guess as to what will happen at the next meeting”. In our opinion that was a heavy hint that a change in statement should be expected.[/li][li]More hawkish rhetoric of the Fed is likely to boost the USD next week. Moreover, the Fed will update its medium-term economic and interest rate projections. In the opinion of GrowthAces.com the outlook for economic growth will be upgraded and for inflation will be downgraded.[/li][li]Another important figures next week are preliminary Euro zone PMIs readings (scheduled for Tuesday, 9:00 GMT) and German Ifo Index (scheduled for Thursday, 9:00 GMT). The releases are likely to show signs of recovery in the Euro zone’s economy.[/li][li]We have got short on the EUR/USD at 1.2450 and set the target at 1.2250, which in our opinion is achievable after the Fed’s statement on Wednesday. [/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.2433 (21-dma), 1.2496 (high Dec 11), 1.2507 (high Dec 1)
Support: 1.2376 (10-dma), 1.2362 (low Dec 10), 1.2342 (61.8% of 1.2247-1.2496)
GBP/USD: Focus On CPI Reading Next Week
(we stay sideways)
[ul]
[li]Construction output fell 2.2% mom in October after rising by the same amount in September. [/li][li]The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said its monthly house price index sank to 13 in November, down from 20 in October and its lowest level since May 2013. Britain’s housing market has been slowing since the middle of this year. The Institute saw the potential for a boost from tax changes announced last week by finance minister George Osborne which, he said, will result in lower payments of the stamp duty tax for more than 90% of home buyers.[/li][li]The Bank of England said it would publish minutes of its debates alongside its decisions, rather than wait nearly two weeks as it does now. The change would come into effect in August 2015. The Bank also said on Thursday it wanted to hold only eight monetary policy meetings a year starting in 2016, down from 12 now. The Finance Minister welcomed the reforms and said he would seek to pass legislation needed to change the BoE’s meetings schedule after May’s election.[/li][li]GBP traders are now waiting for consumer price inflation data due next Tuesday. Inflation is expected to fall to 1.2% from 1.3% a month earlier. Earlier this week BoE governor Mark Carney said that UK CPI would probably fall below 1% in the coming months. The BOE’s inflation target is 2.0%.[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.5737 (hourly high Dec 11), 1.5757 (high Dec 11), 1.5826 (high Nov 27)
Support: 1.5684 (21-dma), 1.5648 (low Dec 10), 1.5626 (low Dec 9)
Thank you for reading
Growth Aces | Daily Forex Analysis, Forex Signals, Forex Trading Strategies and Forecasts for Forex Traders"
GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions
EUR/USD: short at 1.2450, target 1.2250, stop-loss 1.2530
USD/CHF: long at 0.9650, target 0.9800, stop-loss 0.9590
EUR/GBP: short at 0.7930, target 0.7800, stop-loss 0.7990
EUR/CHF: long at 1.2025, target 1.2040, stop-loss 1.1995
GBP/JPY: long at 186.10, target 190.40, stop-loss 184.70
GROWTHACES.COM Pending Orders
GBP/USD: sell at 1.5730, if filled target 1.5570, stop-loss 1.5790
USD/JPY: buy at 117.30, if filled target 119.80, stop-loss 116.50
USD/CAD: buy at 1.1520, if filled target 1.1640, stop-loss 1.1480
AUD/USD: sell at 0.8330, if filled target 0.8180, stop-loss 0.8400
AUD/NZD: sell at 1.0750, if filled target 1.0550, stop-loss 1.0820
EUR/USD: Stay Short Ahead Of FOMC Meeting
(we stay short)
[ul]
[li] European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB policymakers are not pre-committed to sovereign bond buying to boost euro zone growth and inflation and they would take into account the overall economic situation. He added that TLTRO would not have a big impact on the ECB’s balance sheet.[/li][li] Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said: “Monetary policy in the euro area, in my point of view, has not reached a situation where the advantages of a quantitative easing program outweigh its costs.” He stressed that the slump in oil prices is largely responsible for the drop in inflation, adding that the current situation is very different from a price reduction coming from a negative spiral in salaries. He also called on France to reduce its tax burden, reinforce competitiveness, cut labor costs and reduce the rigidity of the labor market.[/li][li] University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on U.S. consumer sentiment for December came in at 93.8 the highest reading since January 2007 and above the median forecast of 89.5 and November reading of 88.8. Consumer sentiment rose on improved prospects for jobs, wages and on lower gasoline prices.[/li][li] The EUR/USD fell slightly today on dovish Nowotny’s comments and rising likelihood (after recent very good U.S. macroeconomic data) of more hawkish Fed’s statement on Wednesday. Our trading strategy remains intact. We stay short for 1.2250. The nearest important support level is at 1.2384 (low December 12).[/li][li] The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday. The central bank reaffirmed that it would keep rates around zero for "a considerable time” in its previous statement. On Wednesday investors will be focused on these three words in the statement: “a considerable time”. If they are missing it will be read as a hawkish signal that the long-awaited return to more normal interest rates is coming sooner rather than later and will give the USD a boost.[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.2524 (high Nov 27), 1.2507 (high Dec 1), 1.2496 (high Dec 11)
Support: 1.2384 (low Dec 13), 1.2382 (10-dma), 1.2362 (low Dec 10)
USD/JPY: High Volatility Makes Trading Risky
(outlook is still bullish, buy again at 117.30)
[ul]
[li] The governing Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner in government, the Buddhist Komeito, will control two-thirds of the seats in the lower house. A big victory for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition in an election on Sunday was a boost for his reflationary economic policies, which are likely to weigh on the JPY in the long term.[/li][li] The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed that the headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment worsened by 1 point from three months earlier to plus 12 in December. The median market forecast amounted to plus 13. The survey showed also that corporate spending plans were strong. Firms plan to increase capital spending by 8.9% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2015.[/li][li] The USD/JPY has been very volatile recently. The USD/JPY rose to 119.13 in early Asian session today. Despite a big win of ruling coalition that is negative for the JPY in long term and worse-than-expected Tankan reading, the JPY appreciated soon and the USD/JPY fell as low as 117.78, reaching the stop-loss of our short position at 117.80.[/li][li] In our opinion the medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY is still bullish, but given the recent volatility, trading USD/JPY is risky now. We have placed our buy order at 117.30.[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 119.21 (high Dec 12), 199.43 (10-dma), 119.55 (high Dec 11)
Support: 117.78 (session low Dec 15), 117.56 (30-dma), 117.45 (low Dec 11)
Thank you for reading
Growth Aces | Daily Forex Analysis, Forex Signals, Forex Trading Strategies and Forecasts for Forex Traders"
Forex day trading is a popular strategy that focuses on buying and selling currency pairs within the same trading day. It is a short-term trading strategy where traders place a number of trades per day and close them by the end of the trading day, with no overnight positions.
Tips for Successful Forex Day trading
- Setting your risk tolerance level is critical. Your appetite for risk will impact your trading decisions greatly, and it is a leading factor in finding a proper trading strategy. Follow clear risk management rules.
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