I am looking for the EUR/USD pair to take a drop. The trend is still down and it looks like the cycle up is about complete. I would like to see one more exhaustion blow off to the upside before I consider entering the pair however. I would like to see it move back to the 1.5250 to 1.5280 level before I consider entering and I will do so only if the 4 hr. is Over bought and my other technical indicators look good. I am looking for this drop to occur someplace between 17:00 and 21:00 (GMT+7).
We are getting into a rather volatile period of the year in which moves can be pretty big so hopefully when we see the drop occur it will make a substantial move.
Well I definitely called the direction correctly even if my timing was a bit off. I unfortunately only managed to take about 8 pips from the move as the technicals didn’t look right on Wednesday so I closed out early before it spiked up toward the 1.26 level. I never got the re-entry price that I wanted so I missed the big drop down.
At the moment the market is a bit hard to read. It looks like we are mid cycle to the downside, but with that big drop the cycle might have also completed (even though it looks like we are short on the pip movement). Either way I do think we have more to go to the downside, the question is how much upside will it move before it starts to drop again. The first resistance level I am looking at is the 1.2475-80 level. If it gets there and the technicals look good with the 60 minute smart money indicator and the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) overbought I’ll consider a trade. I’m not seeing anything as far as a specific time is concerned.
I am still looking at the EUR/USD for the short side. The 4 hr chart looks good technically speaking, but I am waiting for a signal on the 30 minute to confirm my forecast, so I am not jumping in quite yet. The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter.
The time I am looking for it to take a drop is around the 20:00-22:00 (GMT+7). Hope this helps and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
In Today’s EUR/USD forecast I am looking for the pair to continue to drop. I did manage to get an entry at 1.2520 yesterday and held it until a few minutes ago for about a 60 pip gain. I think it will drop more but it’s Friday and I don’t plan on holding the trade over the weekend so I thought I’d cut and run. Nevertheless it’s still mid cycle down so I do expect to see more movement to the down side.
On Wednesday I “The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter.”
The high was at around 1.2522 so it was a fairly accurate call even if my timing wasn’t perfect. The pair has just dropped another 20 pips from my exit point so I probably exited too early.
We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up. I managed to squeeze about 60 pips out of a trade that I’d entered on Thursday evening. The pair did continue to drop further, but then it reversed so I was happy with the 60. The markets have been choppy quite a bit lately making trading conditions very difficult on this pair so make sure everything is lined up before pulling the trigger.
I’m sorry that I am posting this rather late, but there wasn’t an opportunity to reenter the pair anyway. We appear to be mid cycle down still, but I think the pair may retrace or go sideways for awhile before it drops again.
Trade Review On Monday I said-
“We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up.” As you can see by the chart below. I was spot on. The high was at 1.2506, so I was within 16 pips of the top. If you are int his trade congratulations. It’s fallen about 185 pips so far. If you’d used a 25 pip stop loss that would give you a risk to reward ratio of more than 1 to 7. With that said I would seriously think about closing the trade or at the very least trailing the stop closely. I do think the pair has some more to fall, but the retrace back up could be substantial before it continues to fall. 12-1-2014
It doesn’t look like there are any trading opportunities on the EUR/USD for today, or any of the other pairs that I trade for that matter. If you made the drop on the EUR/USD that I called on Monday then congratulations. I of course missed my own call, as I was already in a short trade on the GBP/USD by the time the EUR/USD set up. I did manage to squeeze out 66 pips on two trades on the GBP/USD but would have loved to get the big 185 drop that I called on the EUR/USD. Hopefully next time. have a nice weekend.
In today’s forecast I am recommending to stand aside. As I mentioned in the last forecast the counter trend strength looked strong and we did indeed see a big move to the upside this week. Despite the fact that it looks like the move is starting to subside the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator on the daily chart has still not hit the over bought level. Because of this I still see the 4 hr. and Daily charts as being at odds with one another which means too much uncertainty in the direction of the market. So again I’m recommending to stand aside and wait for things to sort themselves out next week. Have a good weekend.
I’m sorry that I haven’t posted for awhile, but I wasn’t seeing the setups that I wanted to. Anyway happy new year all. The EUR/USD is in strong downtrend. However it appears that the weekly cycle down has completed. With that said I would like to see some more upside then downside. However I need to see that the STC is overbought on the 4 hr. and that my Smart Money Indicator is also signaling down. So I will look for a reversal point at around the 1.2 level and I’m looking for this to occur between 7-9pm tonight (GMT+7).
Hi I’m sorry that I’ve been ignoring my blog as of late. It looks like the weekly Cycle down has completed. Unfortunately it also looks like the Monthly cycle may be completing as well. What this means is confusion. We will likely get a big move back to the upside. However since that is a counter trend move we need for the STC to setup on the Daily Chart and even then I rarely take counter trend trades. So I will be sitting on the side lines for the Euro/USD. I am seeing a similar setup in the GBP/USD as well and it looks like the monthly cycle has completed.
Once the daily STC has become overbought, provided that the trend remains down I will look for the downside to continue. So on these 2 pairs I’m going to remain on the sidelines until the direction becomes much clearer.
There’s lots of craziness in the markets with the Swiss Franc decoupling from the Euro and large brokers like Alpari UK going broke. Unfortunately they were my main data feed provider so I guess I’ll have to look elsewhere now.
So the EUR/USD has now entered a sideways phase. I’m thinking that this is accumulation preparing for a move up. The monthly cycle as I mentioned last week appears to be done, and there is a potentially big move to the upside coming and that is how I will look to play the market. Nevertheless it is a counter trend trade so I will be exercising caution. I still don’t see a reason to enter the market at the moment even though the trend appears to be slowing.
I might even just wait for the market to make an initial move up before climbing on board just to be sure. Anyway at the moment I would just wait until the accumulation phase is done.
I think that the EUR/USD has worked off it’s bullish energy. It’s moved 450 pips up since January 25th. So now I am looking for it to continue to drop. However on the 4 hr. drop I am still seeing some bullish momentum so I want to see that subside first before I consider taking a trade.
I’m looking for the drop to occur sometime after 8:15 pm (GMT+7) as this is when the ADP Non Farm Pay Roll change will be announced. My time indicators are saying sometime between 9-11 PM (GMT+7)
I’m changing my bias for the EUR/USD to bullish. I think we are seeing the potential for a trend change. I thought that the weakness would continue, but we are seeing bullishness in correlated pairs and I am getting buy signals from some of my indicators so I am looking for a solid pullback to enter on.
Around the 1.137-80 level looks to be a good place to enter. However since it looks like the weekly cycle up is complete I need for the STC to become oversold on the 4 hr before I think about entering. With that said I don’t think we’re going to see the setup for this pair until next week.
On Monday I said “We need for the 4 hr. STC to become Overbought and I’m looking for the reversal to occur at around 1.1245.” I managed to call the reversal within 5 pips and the high was at 1.1239. I also said that it would top between 8 and 11pm (GMT+ 7) and the top was at 7pm, so I was slightly off. If you managed to enter this trade it dropped around 80 pips. I am now seeing buy signals on the daily chart so I would recommend closing this trade if you’re in it. I’m not ready to enter long yet, but I am seeing signs that the trend down may be weakening at least temporarily.
It looks like I was a bit too early on the exit from the EUR/USD, but I did get a signal on the daily chart to do so, so it’s what my recommendation was. However I am now seeing sell signals again, but since today is NFP I am going to skip trading today and wait for a pullback to the upside before I consider the short. I didn’t manage to get the entry on the EUR/USD, but I did take a short on the EUR/JPY on Monday night, which I got stopped out of yesterday for a 120 pip gain.
The EUR/USD is on a tear to the downside, it’s like a steam train to the downside. I’m still looking for it to fall some more, but want to see a pullback to the upside to consider the entry. There hasn’t been an opportunity to this week as there’s been very little pullback. However it does look like an opportunity may be beginning to present itself. The pair has pulled back about 145 pips from it’s bottom but the 4 hr STC still needs to become overbought before I’d consider entering. In addition you should an Exhaustion and then a No Demand bar on the 4 hr. Volume Spread Analysis before entering the trade.
I’m not seeing anything from my time based indicators, except for a possible drop tomorrow at 12 pm (GMT+ 7). Otherwise just keep an eye on the 4 hr. charts for a possible setup. Although I didn’t manage to get a trade on the EUR/USD this week, I did squeeze 222 pips out of the EUR/AUD, and it’s still dropping. There also appears to be a trade on the GBP/USD to the downside that is starting to look good as well.
I’m still looking for shorting opportunities on the EUR/USD. I have another sell signal on the daily chart and it looks poised to drop some more. I am looking at an entry around the 1.650 level. However make sure to get the NO DEMAND bar on the 60 Minute chart before entry as it may go higher before it drops again.
It looks like the break down will occur between 2-4 pm according to my time based indicators (GMT+7).
I’m still looking for shorting opportunities in the EUR/USD. I’m looking at 1.0880 as an entry point, and for the move to occur someplace around 9pm (GMT+7). However this is also around the time that Draghi is speaking, which may or may not cause a spike. If you decide to enter before his announcement just be aware of the added risk.
The short entry that I suggested on last week’s Euro trade did manage to get stopped out for a loss of 30 pips due to announcement spike. However the pair did subsequently drop, although I never got the entry I was looking for.
