The EUR/USD is still in the middle of a down cycle. The seasonals are still confused with one indicator saying up and the other down. However the technical and cycle analysis are still saying down.
The sentiment indicators are saying nothing, and the time analysis is saying up. However I think there may be some inversions on the time analysis.
So with that said I would say the direction is down, and am looking for reversals on an overbought market. It’s 7:30 am (GMT+7) at the moment and we’re already over bought on the hourly and 15 minute, but based on inverted time signals I am looking for turns at 10:30-12:30, 2:30-4:30 pm, and 8:30-10:30 pm (all GMT+7).
The resistance level is at 1.3710-1.3720 level. So I am looking for VSA and technical indicators to give a down signal in this area before I take the trade.
The EUR/USD is still in the middle of a down cycle, but we’ve gotten stuck in a range. It needs to pullback and get overbought on the 4 hr. for the short to be safe.
I am looking for it to do so around 11:30 to 1:30 pm (GMT+7).
I would also look for the reversal at around the 1.3710-1.3720 level, but again only if the 4 hr chart is oversold on an oscillator like the Williams Percent R. If this happens then look for the volume spread analysis and other technicals to give a short signal before entry.
Trade Recap-This is what I said on Wednesday.
“I am looking for it to do so around 11:30 to 1:30 pm (GMT+7).
I would also look for the reversal at around the 1.3710-1.3720 level”
As you can see my call was fairly accurate, however I was about 30 minutes too early as the peak came at around 2:00 PM GMT and the subsequent drop shortly thereafter. The zone was also correct with the high being 1.3723. Anyway I hope that some of you made some pips from this.
EUR/USD Forecast for May 21, 2014
The down cycle on the EUR/USD looks to be about finished. However we are a bit short on the pip count, so there is a chance that it will fall first before it starts to move up
The 4 hr. chart is starting to become oversold, which is a good sign, but the bar hasn’t closed yet.
The seasonals are saying up but I would say that it needs to drop to the 1.3580 level before I feel safe taking the ride back up. So for those of you who are more risk averse I would say standing aside for today and waiting for the EUR/USD to show its hand next week before entering.
For the more risk loving I’d say look for the EUR/USD to drop into the 1.3570-1.3580 zone before entering a long trade, provided that VSA and technicals are supporting this. Look for this reversal to occur around the 6:30-8:30 time frame. (GMT+7).
The EUR/USD pair is looking quite confusing, so my recommendation would be to stand aside today until things become clearer.
The seasonals are saying up, but the technicals are down. At the moment it’s very difficult to judge where we are in the cycle. Initially I thought we were at the end of a cycle and looking for a move back up. However we may actually still be in the middle of a down cycle. Regardless the pair still needs to move down before the cycle completes, but it’s difficult to tell whether there is enough reward to make it worth the risk. So I am sitting on the sidelines on this pair until things become clearer.
The EUR/USD pair is looking quite confusing, so my recommendation would be to stand aside today until things become clearer.
The seasonals are saying up, but the technicals are down. At the moment it’s very difficult to judge where we are in the cycle. Initially I thought we were at the end of a cycle and looking for a move back up. However we may actually still be in the middle of a down cycle. Regardless the pair still needs to move down before the cycle completes, but it’s difficult to tell whether there is enough reward to make it worth the risk. So I am sitting on the sidelines on this pair until things become clearer.
The EUR/USD is still looking rather confusing. The seasonals are saying up the cycle is saying up, but the COT is saying down and the technicals are mixed.
We want to stack as many probabilities in our favor before we enter a trade. To those of you that are more risk averse I would say stand aside for today until things become clearer.
To those who are risk loving I would say the EUR/USD is cautiously long and so to enter on a deep pull back to around 1.3600.
I would look for the moves to occur at around 9:30-11:30 and 16:00-18:00 (GMT+7)
I feel that confident that the down cycle is complete for now. The seasonals are giving a bullish signal and my smart money indicator on both the daily and 4 Hr. charts are also signaling up.
I’m looking for an entry at the 1.3600 level. The time I’ll be looking for this move is between `10pm and 12am (GMT+7)
The past couple of days have been a wild ride on the EUR/USD pair. The cycle up completed on May 30th, and the down cycle completed yesterday after the EUR Minimum Bid Rate announcement came out. It then reversed back up almost immediately after finishing the cycle and we are not in the middle of the up cycle.
The seasonals are also bullish as is my smart money indicator, both on the 4 hr. and on the daily.
With that said I would still exercise caution. The pair has already run 170 pips to the upside, which doesn’t leave much profit potential unless the technicals on the daily chart shifts to a more bullish outlook.
If you are risk averse I would wait until next week and see how things look then. If you are more risk loving I wold wait for a pullback to the 1.3620 support level. The time I am looking for this to occur is between 5-7pm (GMT+7)
The seasonal pattern for today and tomorrow are up on the EUR/USD but the cycle is over extended to the upside the smart money on the 4 hr chart appears to be selling, and the seaonal pattern shifts to bearish on Wednesday June 11th. So I am looking to short this pair.
However I would like to see it retrace to the 1.3660 level and I am looking for this to happen around 14:30 to 16:30 (GMT+7) and between 21:00 to 24:00 (GMT+7)
Trade Review- I said this for the pair last Friday
“If you are more risk loving I would wait for a pullback to the 1.3620 support level. The time I am looking for this to occur is between 5-7pm (GMT+7)”
As you can see the move hit the bottom at 5:15 PM and went up and the low was 1.3619 and it moved up 57 pips from there. Not all of my forecasts will be this clean, but this was as clear as it gets, calling the precise time, direction, and price.
The EUR/USD Forecast for today is still bearish. The seasonals are down, and we are in the middle of the cycle down. The pair has already dropped 140 pips out of a potential 220 pips, so I would like to see some pullback before entering.
I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good.
There’s a good chance it won’t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that’s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7).
Trade Review – On Monday I said
“I am looking to short this pair. However I would like to see it retrace to the 1.3660 level and I am looking for this to happen around 14:30 to 16:30 (GMT+7) and between 21:00 to 24:00 (GMT+7)”
As you can see by the chart below, the move came 30 Minutes before I predicted, but I got the price and direction spot on. I missed the move, but I hope that some of you got it.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The daily smart money indicator is down. However the 4 Hr. indicator is up, so we do have some conflict. The seasonal tendency is also down.
Because of the conflicting indicators I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7). There are also some other time frames later on in the day that are possible such as 4:30-7:00 PM but given that today is a Friday I probably won’t enter a trade that late in the day as I don’t like holding over the weekends.
Trade Review- On Wednedsday I said -
“I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good.
There’s a good chance it won’t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that’s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7).”
As you can see by the chart below the move came at 6:30 PM but I was 5 Pips off and the high was at 1.3555. However I did manage to call the direction correctly.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The short up cycle completed on Friday and started it’s descent. In addition the seasonal indicator is saying down as is the 4 Hr. Smart Money Indicator.
With that said I am looking for the reversal area at 1.3570. It may not make it up that high but if it does that’s where I’ll look for the reversal. I’ll be looking for it to come between 1 PM to 4 PM (GMT+7), 6:30 to 8:30 PM and 9:30 to 11:30 PM.
Trade Review On Friday I said -
“I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7).”
As you can see by the chart below I was 2 Pips from the high and the reversal came exactly at 3:30 PM, for a potential 58 Pip ride down. Congrats if you managed to score some pips from this!
If you entered the EUR/USD trade yesterday at 1.3570 I would recommend closing it either at break even or for a 5 pip loss. It does appear that the cycle has shifted to the upside. However the seasonals and other factors say it’s down, while the technicals say it’s up. When things become convoluted like this I’d rather stand aside.
For today’s EUR/USD forecast I recommending for you to stand aside. As I mentioned in Tuesday’s trade update it looks like the market was shifting to the upside, which it did. However the up cycle is nearing completion however it will likely still go a bit higher or sideways for awhile, before it drops. Since it’s Friday I see no need to rush into this.
Well done kiasucapital, your analysis looks good.
Thanks Hidden Hand, I try.
The EUR/USD Forecast today is looking down. The cycle up finished last Friday and then started it’s descent on the same day. I expected some movement sideways or even more to the upside but we never got it.
Today I am looking for it to retrace to around the 1.3645 level before it continues to drop. This is where I would look for the short and I expect this to come sometime around 13:00 to 15:00 (GMT+7) or 16:30 to 20:30 (GMT+7)
The seasonals are also looking bearish.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend standing aside. The cycle direction isn’t clear and volume is telling me nothing. Until the direction becomes more clear I would do nothing.
For today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am going to be looking to the short side with the entry at around 1.3620. I will be looking for the drop to come between 12:30 to 4pm (GMT +7)
For today’s EUR/USD forecast we will be looking for continued movement to the upside. The cycle has shifted. Look to a pullback to the 1.3620 level to occur between 14:30 to 18:30 (GMT+7).
Trade review if you took my advice on Friday you likely lost a few pips. The trade did fall as I predicted but only by about 7 or 8 pips. It then reversed and I lost about 15 pips on the trade.
Good Morning Kiasucapital, I trust you are well.
I was wondering if you might be inclined to expand a little on your method of discerning the cycles and why you felt it had shifted in this case ? HH
