Dont know wether your EUR/GBP position has survived but i agree that the euro should be going down medium to long term. Im suprised its holding up as well as it is at the moment, but its just a matter of time.
As said previously, I think the euro is in a lot of trouble and that really its only a matter of time until we see some real weakness.
Ultimatley I think whats happening at the moment with the greek bailout extentions/changes etc etc is just a time buying exercise and that sooner or later greece will probably exit the euro possibly with others as well. I just cant see the greeks wanting to put up with no growth from about 25 years when exiting sorts a lot of their problems.
The whole ECB management is just that, ‘management’, a controlled break down/exit of certain euro zone countries, cutting away the worst affected areas.
I dont see germany going anywhere and I dont see the euro calpsing entirely, I think it will be a solid currency in decades to come.
Thanks for the like ‘coltrader’.
Hows trading?
Anyone suprised at how well the euro is holding up?
I’d replace the word ‘suprised’ with ‘dissappointed’ - it’s cost me pips! grrr…
Yeah, Likewise.
Using the SSI on dailyfx shows that currently 75% of traders with fxcm are short the euro [the ssi is like a smaller version of the COT index]. This shows pretty clearly the thoughts about the euro.
I still believe entirely that the euro is destined for a big fall, the question is, how big?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the euro down at 1.000 with the dollar, in fact I think that currently its really overbought and miss priced and that really it should be down around the 1.1000 mark.
I don’t know what it will be weather it will be something fundamental like a big piece of euro news, ie Spain is leaving the euro etc etc or whether slowly techincal’s will be victorious, but the euro IS going down!
Be nice if the US could sort the fiscal cliff and bring some dollar strength the the table too!
Afternoon.
The euro has started its delcine as expected and previously stated.
Some may believe this just to be a pullback and it may be in the short term, but longterm, the technicals and fundemetals suggest nothing but euro weakness in general.
Overall, medium to long term ie the next couple of years I expect euro weakness, dollar strengh and pound strength against the euro but weakness against the dollar.
With that in mind all strongly correlated pairs should follow these examples as they have for years.
As said in the previous post, I wouldn’t be suprised to see eur/usd parity before 2015, but this depends on dollar growth/politics and euro zone break down, ie one or more countries leaving.
In the short term I would expect to see eur/usd support around 1.2750 followed by a correction then continued decline.
The most serious area of support I would expect to be around 1.200. If the 1.200 support is broken convincingly then I see no reason why parity wouldnt follow.
For continued eur/usd declines today and next week the current area of price action 1.2885 needs to be pushed past. If there is a strong close past this point on the dollar then I would expect continued weakness next week.
With regards to the eur/gbp, price action has made good progress and I expect futher declines throughout next week. The 0.8030 area and then 0.8000 are both areas of support to be aware of.
The gbp/usd needs to continue pound weakness past the 1.5960 area if futher strong declines are to be expected in the coming weeks. If this happens I would expect price to continue lower with some repect being shown at 1.5820. If there is a strong close below this price then I would expect further weakness over time, down to past 1.5500, but beyond that it is hard to predict.
What are my fellow traders thoughts?
Prediction as to USDJPY is below:
BUY
If the price breaks through the level 82.429 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 82.702, 82.930.
SELL
If the price breaks through the level 82.129 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 81.900, 81.654.
Another pairs are here
hi motormadj,
What are your view on eur/usd & gbp/usd short at the market?
Forecast as to NZDUSD:
BUY
If the price breaks through the level 0.83548 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 0.83904, 0.84328.
SELL
If the price breaks through the level 0.83025 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 0.82692, 0.82336.
Hi,
I dont trade JPY pairs because if intervention but I will say this, you want won’t be on the forum very long if you put links to forex service websites in your posts.
Just my 2p.
Hi Panchal.
As said previously I do expect eur and gbp weakness against the dollar medium to longterm.
With reagards to the shorter term, the price action is currently pulling back but I would expect it to resume its down trend shortly.
Morning all.
As said above I expect the eur/usd/ and gbp/usd and all correlated pairs to resume there slow trends based on dollar strength and euro weakness.
Hopefully the FED news/QE hasn’t made the impact it might of [dollar weakness] and appears the markets are paying more attention to the technical facts rather than the fundementals, meaning the dollar should slowly strengthen.
Gold is still slowly declining as I previously predicted and I expect that to continue for the next month or 2 overall. But then once its down around the 1550 or at least past the 1600 mark I expect quite strong buying and a bullish longterm trend.
The markets in general at the moment are pretty poor with conditions being far from ideal. Many of the pairs have basically had low volume and been in a consolidation type range medium term since around the end of september this year.
Times like these are arguably the most important in trading, not the good times, but the bad times, proper risk management should mean that your system survives these times and awaits the good again.
Do my fellow babypip’rs feel that trading has been slow/lacked a strong trend in the last 2-3 of months??
Ok, thanks for a piece of advise. But I didn’t understand as to pair USDJPY. What do you mean saying intervention? Happy pipping.
Government intervention ie the japanese government for the yen or the Swiss government for the franc.
When prices get to extremes they sometimes intervene.
I dont trade the JPY or CHF as a result.
I posted the above on the 28/11/2012 and as you can now see gold has began/continued its decent.
Hopefully some of you will have profited from this.
Hi Motormadj
I have an open trade on eurusd… It does not look soo good for me at the moment, do you maybe see a change in your perspective or do you still stay at your proposal? I ask because of the news lately on US and the fact our world leaders do not want to let go the eur.
Tnx for your “in sight”
mike
I do not know why,but it bettered quite a lot
Thanks for sharing this.