Fresh look at EURGBP

As a student of technical analysis, I’d like comments on this chart. I would like to short this and just let it ride for a while.

So checkit. That’s a 480 minute chart, 8 hours. I’ve been long on the last bar on the chart and I’m closing that now. Thinking I’m going to go short now and plan on being in this trade for several days or more. Stochastics are rolling over and no longer overbought. MACD seems to be telling me the momentum has dried up for now for any bullishness. And I can smell popcorn wafting from the kitchen. All these indicators telling me it’s time short it and go find something to watch on Netflix.

What do you think?

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I would say start going short.

However, I think it’s a bad idea asking others about what to do. I say that because people will give you feedback based on THEIR strategy, not yours.

Backtest, backtest, backtest. All your answers will come from the charts. Go back to different days, months, years, and apply your strategy.

Don’t just look at setups that you would automatically win because you can already see the results. Test ALL signals and evaluate everything.

Perhaps you need to get rid of an indicator. Perhaps you need to get rid of all of them. Maybe you need just one. I don’t know. But don’t bother listening to what others think you should do.

You’re the only one there who has to deal with the consequences of your actions. The charts don’t discriminate. All the information you need is there. But discussing with others could expose you to things you overlooked, if that’s what you wanna do.

Umm, ok, so on the one hand I might want to trade journal, but don’t ask others what to do (which I kinda get)

And I know that you can backtest with Ninjatrader but I’m not sure how.

I don’t really have a well defined strategy. I look at the long term charts and look for a pair that is near support or resistance and watch till it has a couple bars headed in the other way I buy or sell.

It’s really hard to put into words what I do. Maybe that is why it is so opaque in my own mind.

I like trading ranges and channels, and there’s so many pairs that there is no lack of supply of them.

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I’m contradicting myself because I don’t wanna tell you what to do. I personally don’t ask anybody what I should do. My backtests tell me what I should do. My asnwers are in the charts. The idea is to have a strategy that if you do it over and over, you will profit in the long run. People have lots of opinions. But the chart reigns supreme. One person says buy, the other says sell. What does the CHART tell you? Your profits come from the charts.

Study, study, study. For me, this is where the hardwork comes in. Backtest, do a tally, keep records. Test again and again. Peel away at the strategy if you have to.

I used to love the MACD. I stopped using it. I used to love MAs. I got rid of them. I had to be honest with myself. Out of 10 signals, how much money did I profit/lose?

Be honest with yourself about your results. How desperate are you to make this happen?

Are you desperate enough to let go of emotional trading? Desperate enough to scrap your whole strategy and rebuild it from scratch? Desperate enough to stop being desperate? Desperate enough to not be in a rush to get money?

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“I don’t really have a well defined strategy.”


Point taken.

When I posted this chart it should have been obvious to anyone that I’m thinking about shorting at the resistance line (which I have) and hopefully buying back at a nice profit at the support line, and flipping and doing the same for the up swing.

That’s about as well defined as my strategy is on this chart.

Here’s how we look now.