Hello, dear forum members,
This thread is to inform all forum members of announcements from FreshForex broker.
We wish you luck in trading.
FreshForex Team
US CONTINUES TO REDUCE OIL RESERVES
Dear clients,
Today, on September 1 at 14:30 GMT, the US Department of Energy will publish a new report on oil reserves in the country. This is an important indicator showing the level of demand and prices for black gold.
Leading analyst of FreshForex gives the following recommendations on this matter:
The American Petroleum Institute reported on the reduction of black gold reserves in the US storage facilities by 4 million barrels. Stocks are declining for the sixth week in a row, which is favorable for oil prices. Today consider buying #WTI, #BRENT, #Continenta, #Exxon.
Monitor closely the situation on the market together with Fresh Forecasts and earn on the key economic events!
HOW TO EARN ON THE UPCOMING NFP?
Dear clients,
On September 3 at 12:30 GMT August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. This report shows changes in number of people employed in the USA nonfarm sector. Total number of people employed in this sector is about 80% of workers producing USA GDP.
That is why NFP offers the best economics review and causes high volatility in markets!
Find out what results to expect in trading forecast of leading FreshForex expert:
Leading employment indicators from ISM and ADP indicate that Non-Farm Employment data is coming out worse than consensus. Against this background, traders do not expect the Fed to cut stimulus measures, which will provoke a sell-off in the dollar and an increase in stock markets. On Friday consider buying GBPUSD, AUDUSD, #SP500, #DAX30, #Alcoa.
In the meantime, you can profitably make deposit with cryptocurrency to prepare for this event!
GAS PRICE RENEWS A HISTORICAL RECORD!
Dear traders,
Today, on September 28, the gas price (#GAZ) broke through the incredible $6 per MMBtu (British Thermal Unit) level. Since the beginning of the day, the gas price has already risen by more than 5%. Such value was recorded last time in December 2009.
Why is the gas price going up?
The main pusher of gas prices is the fuel deficit in European storage facilities. Last winter was tough, it negatively affected gas supplies. Due to interruptions in supplies over the summer, the storage facilities managed to fill only by 75%, and the new heating season is already starting.
The global decline in production and a decrease in supplies from the United States and Russia have also affected the gas price.
Why to trade gas?
Gas is the third most popular energy source in the world. Fuel is used for heating, cooking, electricity, chemicals, cultivation and more. Gas prices are constantly fluctuate, and offer traders huge opportunities to make decent profit.
BOLLINGER BANDS IN DAY TRADING
Dear clients,
Every trader choose and combine different strategies for effective and profitable trading. In the upcoming webinar we’ll tell you about classical strategy that you can use in your work — these are Bollinger Bands.
Join us on September 29 at 12:00 GMT to learn everything about it. It will be useful webinar for everyone who intrested in day trading.
You may also ask FreshForex analyst any questions about the market situation or discuss the latest analytical news on the webinars.
You can also see all the previous webinars.
OIL REACHED A 2018 HIGH!
Dear traders,
Oil prices are rising for the fourth day in a row. On September 24 trades, the Brent price reached its maximum since 2018.
According to analysts, the price rise is influenced by negative data on oil reserves from the United States and an increased import of black gold from Japan. As well as, recent Gulf of Mexico hurricanes caused disruptions in oil production, in this way pushing prices higher. Oil optimism is rising, new highs are ahead!
Open trades now and set your own records: trade with a volume of 0.11 lots and above — and we’ll double your profit or refund your losses under the Maximum Profit contest terms.
Take part in the epic Battle of volume!
Dear clients,
A hot time is coming for the markets as we launch the Battle of Volume! Open your most record positions, trade to the maximum, and get a big prize on your account.
You can spend funds on trading or withdraw without restrictions. Increase your chances of success and use any FreshForex deposit promotion!
Invest in the future today. Tesla stock split.
Dear clients,
In June, Tesla’s board of directors proposed a 3-to-1 share split. In August, this decision was approved by the company’s shareholders. The company held the first 5:1 stock split at the end of August 2020. Since then, by April 2022, the value of securities has increased by 102.8%.
Tesla at the end of last month reported it’s results for the second quarter of 2022. The company doubled it’s net profit and 1.4 times it’s revenue! Moreover, the company wants to produce up to 2 million electric vehicles per year. The company has reported that they already have sufficient capacity to produce more than 1.9 million electric vehicles per year at four plants.
And now the shares of the world’s leading manufacturer of electric vehicles become 3 times more affordable!
The split will take place on August 24, and from August 25, trading on the #Tesla instrument will open at a new price.
Please note that on August 24, 2022:
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the #Tesla instrument will be in Close only mode;
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all open positions on #Tesla must be closed no later than 22:55 server time in accordance with clause 10.7 of the Regulations for trading operations;;
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the remaining open trades will be forcibly closed by the company at session closing prices.
Tesla (formerly Tesla Motors) is an American manufacturer of electric vehicles and electrical energy storage solutions. The company was founded in July 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Mark Tarpenning, co-founded by Elon Musk, Jeffrey Brian Straubel and Ian Wright.
In 2019, Tesla becomes the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Tesla Model 3 sedan has become the best-selling electric car in history, breaking the 800,000 mark.
In 2021, Tesla came out on top in terms of capitalization among automotive companies, overtaking the Japanese manufacturer Toyota. At the end of October 2021, Tesla’s capitalization exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, putting it on a par with corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet.
Now’s a good time to build up your trading potential — get a triple benefit with a deposit bonus 300%!
How to manage your risks: a profitable strategy for beginners
Dear clients,
When trading, considering your losses is as important as counting profits. Risk evaluation is something anyone can struggle with, both pro and new traders. This time, we’ll continue the topic of risk management.
Join us on August 24 at 12:00 GMT.
During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.
If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.
BEHIND THE WALLS: WALL STREET ON THE DECISION OF THE FED
Dear clients,
Wall Street was stumped by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
In a statement accompanying a quarter-point rate hike, the central bank ditched previous language that said “some additional policy tightening” might be warranted. Chairman Jerome Powell then said banking sector conditions had “generally improved” since early March.
But investors still had many questions. Despite Fed officials’ forecasts of a mild recession, Powell expects the US economy to grow at a modest pace this year. And while he said rates are “maybe at” a fairly restrictive level, getting back to the 2% inflation target won’t be a “smooth process.”
As Powell spoke, the S&P 500 went up and down, then closing down 0.7%. Treasury revenues fell.
The fact that the stock market is having a hard time figuring out where to go next is evidence that this has already been priced in, experts say. Looking ahead, investors want to know what value the Fed will place on tightening lending conditions caused by stress in regional banks.
Powell’s speech failed to reassure the market, investors heard what they expected, but not exactly what they wanted; the lack of clear guidance from the Fed is also worrisome. The general mood is quite calm, no revelations from Powell have been made and the situation is still developing according to market forecasts. A number of analysts note that the Fed is still set to tighten: they will need confirmation from the data that the monetary policy stance is quite restrictive.
The prospects for a pause or rate cut are viewed very cautiously, with particular attention to the possibility of a recession. At the same time, few people believe in further increases, according to analysts, this will require catastrophic inflation.
Fed futures showed that the likelihood of a rate hike in June had dropped to around 2%.
TRADING SIGNALS: US FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING
Dear clients,
On May 3, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.
How the situation with rates will develop now, our expert tells:
The Fed may raise the rate by 0.25% and signal to the market that it will not raise the rate at the next meetings, as inflation is declining, which is favorable for economic growth. On Wednesday consider buying AUDUSD, GBPUSD, #NQ100, #SP500.
A reversal can quite shake up the market — be ready with a 300% deposit bonus!
ELECTIONS IN TURKEY
12 May 2023
Elections in TurkeyDear traders!
We would like to draw your attention to the fact that presidential elections in Turkey will be held on May 14, 2023. This event may provoke a sharp increase in volatility of Turkish Lira instruments and, as a consequence, lead to increased trading risks.
As we care about our clients, we strongly recommend all traders to be more attentive and also:
Maintain a margin level of at least 500%;
Use protective Stop-loss orders;
to adjust the volume of current open positions at their own discretion, if necessary.
It should be noted that in case of significant increase of volatility on financial markets with changing conditions at the liquidity providers of the company the following is possible: increase of spreads and levels of orders setting, change of margin requirements for any instruments both for previously opened positions and for new ones, introduction of “Close only” mode or suspension of trading in accordance with the regulatory documents of the company.
Please consider this information when planning work on the financial markets.
DOWNWARD SPIRAL. A LONG DROP IN OIL PRICES
A long drop in oil pricesDear clients,
Oil prices fell Friday, setting a fourth weekly decline, as renewed economic troubles in the U.S. and China revived worries about fuel demand growth in the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.64%, to $74.50 a barrel by 06:35 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, on the other hand, lost 39 cents, or 0.55%, to $70.48.
Both benchmarks will fall about 1.1% over the week, marking the longest streak of weekly declines since November 2021.
With negotiations over the U.S. government debt ceiling deadlocked and renewed fears that another regional bank is in crisis, fears that the U.S. will enter a recession are growing. A decline in new corporate loans in China and weaker economic data released there earlier in the week raised doubts again about the stimulation of oil demand growth as the country recovers from COVID restrictions.
The price rose earlier Friday, after falling during the previous two sessions, on some demand expectations following comments from the U.S. Secretary of Energy that the States might buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The U.S. government has said it will buy oil when prices are at or below $67-72 a barrel at all times.
However, negotiations to raise the $31.4 trillion U.S. federal debt limit may not reach an agreement in time to prevent a default on the national debt, which could cause serious market turmoil. China’s consumer price data for April rose slower than expected and factory price deflation has deepened, suggesting more stimulus is needed.
The oil market largely ignored the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) global oil demand forecast for 2023, which projected demand growth in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
HERE WE GO AGAIN: THREATS TO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
Dear clients,
A prolonged period of economic downturn in the U.S. will cause tech stocks to plummet at a time when they are attracting a lot of investor money, strategists at Bank of America Corp. say.
Michael Hartnett’s team expects the recession to “crack credit and tech” just as it did in 2008, according to Friday’s note.
Investors poured $3.8 billion into technology stocks in the week ended May 10, the largest inflow since December 2021, BofA reported, citing data from EPFR Global. On the other hand, $2.1 billion was pulled out of financial stocks, the biggest buyout since May 2022, amid turmoil at regional U.S. banks.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up 22% this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy soon, easing pressure on the rate-sensitive sector. And while earnings in this sector will continue to fall from last year, traders already expect a recovery in 2024.
Hartnett, who correctly predicted last year that recession fears would cause stocks to pull back, warned that the U.S. central bank was unlikely to pause rate hikes amid high inflation, as well as low unemployment and presidential approval. That echoes the views of Bloomberg Intelligence strategists, who view the likelihood of weakening tech, media and telecom stocks as they “face the reality of longer-term interest rate hikes and a softening of the earnings outlook.”
Hartnett thinks negative wage data will be a buying signal for cyclical economic-related stocks, such as tech stocks, in 2023. The U.S. labor market has proven resilient, with hiring and worker wage growth accelerating in April.
Other notable flows over the past week included a slowdown in cash inflows - $13.8 billion went into that asset class. At the same time, Treasuries saw the largest inflows in the past six weeks, with $6.3 billion. U.S. and European equity funds bought $2.7 billion and $2.2 billion each, respectively.
CHIPPIN’ IN: NVIDIA’S POWER BOOST
Dear clients,
Nvidia Corp on Wednesday forecast second-quarter revenue more than 50 percent above Wall Street forecasts and said it was increasing shipments to meet growing demand for its artificial intelligence chips, which are used to run ChatGPT and many similar services.
Shares in Nvidia, the world’s most expensive semiconductor company, soared 28 per cent after the signal to a record high of $391.50. That boosted the market value of Nvidia stock by about $200 billion to more than $950 billion, extending the Silicon Valley-based company’s lead as the world’s most expensive chip maker and the fifth most valuable company on Wall Street.
Nvidia is forecasting revenue of $11bn for the current quarter, with analysts polled by Refinitiv citing a figure of $7.15bn. They note that amid a gold rush of generative artificial intelligence, demand for Nvidia chips is secure for the rest of the year.
Adjusted revenue for the quarter ended April 30 was $7.19bn on revenue expectations of $6.52bn. The company’s data centre chip sales were $4.28bn, beating analysts’ forecasts of $3.89bn, according to FactSet.
Nvidia faces competition in AI chips from traditional rivals such as Advanced Micron Devices Inc and Intel Corp, as well as from startups such as Cerebras Systems and its own AI chip efforts at companies such as Google and Amazon.
According to FactSet, revenue from gaming chip sales exceeded Wall Street expectations, coming in at $2.24 billion against forecasts of $1.97 billion. Net income rose to $2.04 billion, or 82 cents per share, from $1.62 billion, or 64 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned $1.09 per share in the first quarter, beating estimates of 92 cents.
THE STRUGGLE FOR DEPENDENCY. OPENAI AND EU CONFLICT
Dear clients,
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has spent the last week travelling around Europe, meeting leading politicians in France, Spain, Poland, Germany and the UK to discuss the future of AI and the progress of ChatGPT. On Wednesday, he warned that the company could leave the EU if the bloc becomes “over-regulated”.
By February, ChatGPT had set a record for the fastest user base growth of any consumer app in history. More than six months after OpenAI unveiled its AI-powered chatbot to the world, concerns about its potential sparked excitement and anxiety - and led to conflict with regulators.
“The current EU bill on artificial intelligence would be over-regulatory, but we have heard that it is going to be pushed back,” Altman said on Wednesday. EU lawmakers responsible for drafting the AI law have disputed Altman’s claims. EU industry chief Thierry Breton also criticised the threat, saying the draft rules were non-negotiable. Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak, who also worked on the EU bill, said she and her colleagues “should not allow themselves to be blackmailed by US companies”.
“If OpenAI cannot meet the basic requirements of data management, transparency, security and protection, then their systems are not suitable for the European market,” she said.
OpenAI first clashed with regulators in March, when Italian data regulator Garante shut down the app domestically, accusing OpenAI of breaching European privacy rules. ChatGPT returned to the web after the company introduced new privacy protections for users.
Meanwhile, EU lawmakers have made new proposals to the Artificial Intelligence Act, which would oblige companies using generative tools such as ChatGPT to disclose all copyrighted material used to train systems. EU parliamentarians agreed a draft law earlier this month. Member states, the European Commission and Parliament will finalise the final details of the bill.
The departure of OpenAI is seen as an unlikely outcome as the European market is too valuable economically. Experts note that some legislative relieves are still possible, but the overall trajectory has already been set.
UNPAUSABLE. FUTURE OF FED RATES
Dear clients,
Federal Reserve policymakers received a dose of unexpectedly strong US economic data on Friday, which bolstered the case for further monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation.
A 0.8% rise in consumer spending last month compared with March was good news, showing that the economy is not on the brink of recession, but discomfort for policymakers waiting for a slowdown that could ease rising pressure on prices. And the increase in core inflation to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in March, underlined the Fed’s less-than-steady progress in fighting inflation. The US central bank’s inflation target is 2%.
Combined with seemingly some progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic US default, the latest data raises doubts that the Fed will indeed “pause” its campaign to raise rates, as Chairman Jerome Powell signalled earlier this month.
Interest rate futures traders are seeing less subtlety in the numbers and are now expecting an 11th consecutive interest rate hike in June, a reversal of the June pause bets made after the last hike on May 3.
Next month’s rate hike is not a definitive decision: Key labour market data from next Friday and fresh inflation data expected on 13 June are still to be announced before the Fed meeting on 13-14 June. However, there are growing expectations that even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged in June, it will hit the brakes in July. In the futures markets the odds are three to one in favour of a rate hike until then.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller — one of the Fed’s most hawkish voices — made this point earlier last week. He said that while key data in the coming weeks as well as uncertainty over credit conditions could support a temporary rate halt, the lack of progress on inflation points to the need for further tightening.
BIG AND TECH. S&P 500’ FINEST
Dear clients,
Never before in the history of US equities has a small group of companies from one industry had such an impact on the entire market. Six companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta Platforms — now have a combined valuation of around $10 trillion and account for more than a quarter of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500.
All of these stocks have doubled in value in 2023 — and Nvidia and Meta more than doubled — thanks to the dawn of artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon halt interest rate hikes. The benchmark index is up 8% in 2023, but its return is down to just 2% if technology companies are excluded. The S&P 500 is also well behind the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which has entered bull market territory, jumping 22% this year.
Historically, it is rare for a handful of stocks from one sector to make up such a large proportion of the S&P 500. The last time the five largest valuation companies accounted for a quarter of the total market value of the index was in the 1960s, according to Schroders. It is also the first time in history that all five of the largest publicly listed companies represent the same industry.
However, this is not all good news for investors.
It is tempting to view the dominance of the technology sector as a good thing. But single-industry stocks tend to be vulnerable to the same macroeconomic factors — such as rising interest rates, which often hit technology stocks harder than other companies because they are more reliant on borrowing cash.
The overall size of the S&P 500 market is so concentrated around technology companies that it is more vulnerable to sharp price swings than before, Minerva Analysis said. When there is a narrow group of leaders, there is a big risk if something bad happens to technology. If interest rates rise to 7%, it will be bad news for the whole market.
So while the tech giants have provided a surprise rally in equities in 2023, their rising market capitalisation could end up being more of a curse than a blessing for investors.
TRADER’ STARTER PACK
Dear clients,
When you are at the start of your trading path, you might want some boost, something to get ahead. This time we’ll be looking at some strategies which can help a beginner to gain an egde.
Join us on May 31 at 12:00 GMT.
During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.
If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.