From Impossible to win to 100% a Week!

I used to think like many frustrated traders do, that the markets were impossible to win.
Why? Well there were many reasons, some justified, and some based on a lack of understanding. It sure seemed like a lot of the brokers were a little crooked, or a lot crooked in some cases, and It seemed like the market itself just did so many illogical and random things in general, and how in the hell is an average guy supposed to be able to have near enough capital to win at this game? Shorter time frames just ate me alive because the spread was such a significant percentage of the trades, and the longer trades were just to few and far between. Well I can finally say that there is an edge you can gain against all of that, it’s simple and it relies only on only your ability see it. There are no fancy techs involved, although I have designed some things in MT4 that assist me, and I can manage this strategy in very few hours in a day, so it’s possible to be something besides a computer slave. I think in the beginning of this desktop age and my early trading, I somewhat enjoyed that, but these days I think for many of us the initial allure of the whole computer world has faded and we would like to get back to real life a little more often. After all, we now do so many other things with computers, banking, shopping, travel, social networking etc. Add all of that up and it’s just far too much screen time.

Anyway I want to start helping some people who were like me, not spoon feeding by any means but taking a look at what others are struggling with in their systems and approaches and if possible shedding some light from my perspective on how I may have gotten around it etc. if I experienced the same challenge several years ago etc.

I’m not sure that telling people exactly what I do would be beneficial, so I will hold off on that for the time being, as I think it’s best revealed in the context of real time dialog and example. It’s also dynamic in nature, since the market themselves are dynamic, so it’s difficult if not impossible to program, but fairly easy for the human eye to adjust to. Since the markets are controlled by the human mind, it takes the human mind to edge it out. I don’t believe in robots etc. they just can’t react to the psychology properly. If the markets were run by robots or AI then AI could find the edge, probably so well it would cause them to cease to exist. I think we all wish the markets did work on some scientific basis of logic, however, most TI’s will reveal that this just isn’t so most of the time, and in fact is a vulnerability to those who believe that they do. I think they leave you in the middle of town waiting to be sniped myself.

Nothing to sell here either so don’t misinterpret my intent as commercial in nature. I will call some trades here and there when I have time to do so with some explanation, and maybe even set up some live chat at various times if anyone wants to use the strength of numbers to their advantage.

I’m new on here, and I’m guilty of reading forums and never contributing so I just think it would be cool to set up a little strategy assistance community, not too many people, but people who are either frustrated or have got their skill level to where I used to be for a long time, which is gaining and losing too much without forward progress. Getting a hold of the steady equity increase is what this is all about. Even more important than that though is the genuine interest in the art itself. One of the biggest secrets to success in any pursuit, is the love of the pursuit itself. In other words trade for the sake of trading, not just financial motivation, and especially not desperation.

I found myself many times 7 or 8 years ago just completely irritated and had to put it down for a while, and maybe that was part of the process in some ways, but once you know that anything can happen and you have prepared for that with every move you make, it all changes. The real damage is done by believing you have control in some way over what the market does. Many of you may know some of these things already from your own experience as well, so don’t hesitate to join in if you have something positive to add.

Good luck everyone,… scratch that, Good trading! Luck is one of the enemies, one of many mystical beliefs that lead to psychological failure!

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Currently Short USD/JPY

Took 6 Pip Profit on Yen

I took a short on both crosses during London. I closed the Yen Early, and let the Euro go into New York overlap. Woke up this morning with around 70 or so pips. My account equity has increased since monday by around 35%. By the way this forum is about equity increase goals of 100% not a 100% winning trades. I also want to clarify that I have posted this thread on another forum for which I was attacked, but there is no commercial intent in doing so, just networking for some positive people. My system is primarily based on market timing, and real support and resistance, not just the high and low of x bars in history etc. Actual highs and lows of price structure.

Hi Mister7,

Will you be explaining why you took the trades? As you are posting under the Trading systems section, i think it will be good if you also share your thoughts on the trades so that readers will have a better understanding why you take those trades and can pick up a thing or two along the way. :slight_smile:

Yes…T2W forum is a tough crowd…lol…good luck with that :smiley:

However, perserverence will tell, just ignore the trolls.

So how do you determine REAL support & resistance? and what do you mean by price “structure”? Is that different than price “action”?

Thanks :slight_smile:

Can you put up the prices you got in at.

Yes I will, however I am wondering about how to go about this efficiently. Maybe a Yahoo messenger or Skype chat. I just don’t want to type explanations or post pics constantly in a couple different forums. I would rather discuss it in real time with others who are interested, when I am getting ready to set up a trade a couple of times a day. Maybe a video or something, not sure as of yet. I would also like to address other’s issues with their approach, more than just have people follow my trades, because part of what makes it all work is your own perception, especially in regard to take profit and loss ratios. Everyone has different equity to start with, and certainly different comfort levels of risk.

Skype chat sounds great, i’d love to hear your strategy and i appreciate your efforts to help fellow traders, i too struggled but now i’m back on track! I’d love to involved in your teachings to further my learnings


Thanks Sweet Pip,

T2W is disappointing when being met with immediate negativity, and the funny thing is before even really starting or saying much. Although I am new to posting, I am not new to trading or the vast array of forums, strategies, and publications that permeate the web. Anyway hopefully someone will see the value in discussing these things over there as well. A big part of what turned this around for me over time was avoiding negative influence, either self created, or from external sources, or more importantly being unaffected by it or emotions as a whole.

When I refer to Real S & R, I am opposing S & R formulas that take the high or low of X bars in history or floor trader formulas that in my opinion randomly draw these levels etc.

This may seem obvious to some, and much of what I discuss here at times may not be new, but when I determine S &R, it relates completely to price itself. The easiest way to see it is to view closing price as a line, and back your time frame out. Price reacts at those highs and lows in classic fashion, and depending on market time and said outcome from those areas can reveal a great opportunity to enter the market. An edge if you will, based upon price and it’s weight.

QUOTE=NeverDie;99842]Can you put up the prices you got in at.[/QUOTE]

Yes I will, I took the yen short last night 100.654 and the Euro short at 1.33467. I have screen captures of this stuff as well, but really don’t want to get into uploading constantly to a hosting server, so I think as I get going here I will just create a camtasia video as I make my trades with some verbal dialog etc. once a night. Remember this is a position approach to the market so you don’t trade constantly.

The white line was my entry, red current stop, yellow current target.

Note Target may be changed at anytime, and take profit will be sooner, currently I am around 90 pips up on this trade. Second big Euro trade of the week.

Thanks Taylored, I will look into Skype chat and maybe set this up that way. For example maybe I will Setup my trade for the evening on video, and then discuss the logic behind it for a bit before calling it a night. It will be a brief affair, as the whole point to this is to be less time consuming. I also want to look at others ideas or why isn’t this working scenarios, and comment on things I may have tried in the past that were similar in approach and why ultimately they fail etc.

Closed for 97 Pips Profit.

Long on retracement, conservative fib target.

First and Foremost remember this, you can never control or predict the market, you can merely let it tell you what it’s doing, that being said we look for probability based on repeating patterns, Two big ones for me Fibs and waves, Elliot etc. I look for big moves to come to an end, how do I know for sure? Price tells me by making higher highs or lower lows respective to the move, the first one is a change in direction the second one is a confirmation, entry can take place there with the stop at the newly defined high or low of the market, the target would depend on the time of day and a fib retracement level accordingly.

Here is my chart, as I post this it is on the move, why is it on the move now?
Because traders are entering the market in anticipation of London. This trade is far from over but I will adjust my stop to compensate as I make gains by trailing two minor lows back.

The large move down was a five count Elliot, with a corrective a b c pattern, I bring this up not because it was my initial reason for entering (based more on Fib actually) but because the Elliot c wave should retrace to the fourth wave area, which in this case happens to be a fib line. It’s the ability to see the synchroncity that can lead to a successful trade. There will always be the one that doesn’t work, but we are dealing with probability versus mathematical fallacy.

I would also suggest being careful with trend lines, they are not necessary to see the highs or lows if you get used to using charts as a line as opposed to bars or candles. But drawing a line is merely a line, price will not respect that line just because we draw it, it will still respect the highs or lows (True S & R) far more often than a diagonal line we place on the chart. Price moves in surges of buyers and sellers, these waves can be clearly seen, let them talk to you in a way you understand, this takes time, but when you start to listen to what they say, you will know what to risk and what to target.

Another big secret is what I refer to as weight in the market, moves or waves tend to have opposing reactions equal to or greater than the cause in many cases. I sometime project that weight into the future as aid in target selection as well.

The price has for the first time breached the .382 Fib line. This would be a conservative exit, and once again proves that price probability does exist. It will not work all of the time but it works better than 50% and that is all the edge you need with proper money management.

Price is war…

A market making new highs is rising, Buyers are winning

A market making new lows is falling, Sellers are winning

When is the war on? When are the troops sleeping?

Price is territory that Buyers and Sellers are at War for.

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Buyers to achieve if they won the battle today?

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Seller’s to achieve if they won the battle today?

You will choose a side to be on, you will watch to see who early on is winning the battle, and make your choice, you will know where your choice would be proved wrong, you will expect to take the earliest profit that justifies your risk in relation to the overall goal of the team you have chosen.

If your team is really kicking the other’s ass, you might go for a larger portion of their probable win for the day.

If you were wrong, you were wrong, you will fight another day.

You will not become Happy when you win, you will not become Angry when you lose.

You will be right slightly more than you are wrong, and you will judge your risk and reward based upon this fact.

You will gain slow and steady equity.

In roughly an hour or so I may be looking to short the Yen. Does anyone see why?

easter, good friday

What time frame you looking at?
If the hourly, then maybe because it’s coming up to the 61.8% fib line? if drawn from the high of a couple of days ago 101.43 to the low of yesterday 99.35.

I don’t follow elliot waves at all, so there’s probably something to be seen there if one does as you do. :smiley: