Hi all.
This isn’t really a single trade journal, I already have a couple of grid strategies that work but am always experimenting with new ideas (usually grid related).
This week I’m using an EA that places a trade in a random direction, when it hits the take profit it will place another random trade and so on. I’ll be using two or three instances of the EA on the account for greater flexibility.
I’m setting it for a take profit of 50 points with no stop loss, relying on the ranging nature of gbpusd to (hopefully) make it work.
If the pair start to trend and I’m around to see it then I’ll reset it manually.
It’s a demo account with 1000 USD and 100/1.
If you want to follow it, here’s the details…
Fxglory Demo server.
Login. 225093
Investor. gerk3en
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IMO, this is a losing strategy. Why? Well if you toss a coin a hundred times you could expect around a 48 - 52% result. However within this experiment, there will be consecutive runs of heads and tails, my last one was 11 heads and 13 tails.
All you need is a consecutive losing run and you’ll end up losing your capital which would erase all your wins.
It’s critical to employ a S/L to prevent that. IMO, you could set a wide ranging S/L so you won’t lose all of your account, especially if the GBP/USD has a lengthy trend run and you’re not there to reset it…
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your reply… I appreciate your comments.
Your interpretation of the strategy though is not mine, I’m not saying that the thing will work (which is why I’m testing it) but the use of a stop loss in this would be like putting gravy on an ice cream … It relies on the ebb and flow of this currency.
Today resulted in a ten percent drawdown after a good ranging start… I wasn’t here to monitor it all day but am generally relaxed and happy with the first day and wouldn’t have fiddled with it much anyway.
Half way through the week and it has recovered from a twenty five percent drawdown!!! … First lesson learned, the lots were too big… I’ve reduced them by half for the next stage.
I am persevering with this test and am optimistic that it’s not sinking like a stone. Still in a losing position but holding on for a steady range.
Back in the black (for now)… If I’d have used a stop loss I wouldn’t be. I’m only cancelling losing positions when I’m in positive territory and only when I think that they aren’t going to be useful anytime soon.
I haven’t updated this for a week as there was nothing much to report but with some movement lately it’s doing ok.
I’ve put it on to view (don’t copy as it is an unproven test) www.mql5.com/en/signals/1024906 … Although I don’t think anyone is following this thread anyway and I’m just talking to myself.
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The test is holding steady (equity wise ) at the moment… All down to not using the dreaded stop loss.
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Finished the week with a small equity profit.
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Very interesting, thanks for sharing. How many trades did you take so far on this pair?
Hi @MattyMoney,
Thanks for your interest. So far there have been 70 trades ( so not a great profit for the amount of orders )… But I tend to let the experiments run whether good or bad; I could have reset it yesterday when it was up 10% on equity but I didn’t. I do believe that next week will see some worthwhile profit.
I have four tests on the go at the moment… This one was the one I probably shouldn’t have picked as my journal but who knew ?
If you are interested in my grid experiments, I have other tests going here… www.mql5.com/en/signals/1023123
www.mql5.com/en/signals/1026085
www.mql5.com/en/signals/1023135
(again, not to be copied as it is just a test).
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The experiment for this week is a lot more conventional than I’m used to. I’m doing some fast and loose support and resistance with gbpusd. I’m using 10 x .01 lots instead of a single.1 lot (staggered as limited orders). There will be no stop losses as I’ll be putting some equal sized hedges in place just in case.
It’s here … www.mql5.com/en/signals/1028803
Again, don’t follow as you would most likely lose your money, it’s just a test.
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Slow first day for the new experiment but it’s a positive result.
Very slow day again today for gbpusd but another small equity increase for this week’s experiment.
Again, not a lot to report but all of the experiments are doing ok and all currently in profit.
A very good week for my latest experiment, 11 percent equity gain and a very acceptable drowdown.
The other tests are all doing well and are also in profit.
After last week’s success with the support and resistance (grid style) I’ve decided to go over to the other side for this week’s experiment…
Using the same account with an equity of 1121.00 I’ve selected the first fourteen pairs on my menu, with my limited understanding of s&r I’ve chosen the likely direction and have even used some dreaded stop losses.
It’ll be interesting.
Of the fourteen trades one has hit a stop loss, four have hit the take profit. The rest are still floating around but so far I’m in positive territory.
I’m upping the lots on any new orders from 0.01 to 0.10.
How did the rest of your test go?