I had a good week last week. Between May 10-14, I took 18 trades. I won11 and lost 7 (61%).
With a 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio, I did pretty well! Yeah!!!
When this week started, I had a little confidence and decided to “refine my system.” Instead of confirming signals with the RSI and MACD, I decided to go with Sochastics and Pivot Points. But, the set ups I looked for off the Bollinger Bands were essentially the same.
So far, I’ve placed 21 trades this week … and only won 2. That’s right, only 2 (9%). Needless to say, I’ve given back everything I made last week and then some. At this rate, I won’t be in the game for very long.
It feels like as soon as I place a trade the entire set-up reverses on me and goes the opposite direction. I can’t even get into a winning position for a short period of time. I place a stop order to initiate the trade, but, as soon as the stop is triggered, it immediately pulls back and keeps on going until it hits my stop loss.
I’ve literally thought about doing the opposite of what seems to be logical to me. Had I done that, I would have won 91% of my trades this week. I wouldn’t have had any idea why, but, who cares? Right?
Sorry to hear you had such a rough week, we’ve all been there, it’s the nature of this business and the reason so many give up.
Sometimes you feel like simply flipping a coin would give you better results. And honestly, sometimes it would!
Without knowing your strategy it’s hard to give a lot of advice, but it sounds like maybe you need to look at higher timeframes with wider SL’s to give your trades more room.
Or perhaps simplify. Cut out some of the indicators and see if you get more consistent results.
Thanks, Matty. Just knowing others have been here helps. This is a pretty lonely game and sometimes I feel like I’m tilting at windmills. My self analysis: (1) I shouldn’t have tried to “refine my plan” - I had a tennis coach who used to always say, “Never change a winning game plan.” That was probably my #1 mistake. (2) I’m over trading - not being selective enough. And, (3) I need wider SL - definitely need to let them run more.
But you would have lost 60% of the trades you made the previous week.
You partly answered your own question a little later in the thread. My advice for immediate action following the feeling of frustration and wishing to vent is to stop trading immediately, and take stock of what happened and why. On the technical analysis side alone, has your use of the indicators mentioned been backtested and forward tested on a dummy account, or have you launched into a new interest with a live account without knowing if your strategy or plan has been proven to have been successful in the past.
But before you address the technical indicators have you thought about the bigger picture - that involves psychology and money management before applying technical analysis to your trade zones, entries, amount willing to be risked as a % of your bank, trade management, trade exit? In terms of a sequence of approach to having a robust plan, these are more important than the technical indicators chosen. If in doubt, stop, regroup, go slow. Have patience. This is not just for Christmas. It is for life, and can be the gift that keeps on giving. But only to those who have the patience.
Honestly, I haven’t back tested my system. I’ve been trading off Bollinger Band set-ups on the daily chart. Most of the set-ups are pretty subjective. I’m not quite sure how to systematically back test that.
But, I have “forward tested” the strategy. First in a dummy account, then with micro lots (0.01), and now with mini lots (0.1). But, man, after a run of 10 fails in a row, I’m at my wit’s end.
I see the Promised Land - I just don’t know how I’m going to get there from here.
I think I’m going to step back to the micro lots, so I only lose/win a few dollars at a time. That’s better than blowing up my account in a couple weeks.
This is a lot more common than I think many Forex traders will admit. After 15 years of interest in this subject, and thousands of trades, I have reverted to dummy account and intend to follow the long winded backtesting routes on my new algorithms. This time around, and this started last June 2020 for me, I wrote down that the single most important goal was to “LEARN HOW NOT TO LOSE MONEY”. My impatience is temporarily satisfied by having an active participation in Crypto currencies, but that is to date investment not trading. It helps to increase my patience in making sure I get my trading right this time around.
You may wish to think about whether my primary goal this time around could be useful to your own trading plans. for sure, using dummy accounts and backtesting is a tried and trusted method to “learn how not to lose money”. Best of luck with the decision. You don’t have to choose one or t’other either. You can dummy trade a $100K account to simulate real life, and at the same time use the minimum risk amounts to continue trading the live account.
That was key to me. Not losing money and just compounding daily few $$$ a day. Setting a weekly goal helped and then I stopped. Rest of week I just practiced on demo and practiced some more and perfected my trading.
Once you place a trade your ONLY control over what’s going to happen is to be able to manage your risk. That’s it.
…and now for the better than you disclosure, I placed thirteen disparate trades on one day, and lost the lot. I’ve also had a bad April/May which sometimes defy logic. Have to buckle down and weather it. Discipline and patience, it will turn.
As for the thirteen losses, it took me five minutes of head banging , and three months of damn hard concientious work to recover the losses. So you’re not alone. It’s normal. If you toss a coin a hundred times the likelihood is you’ll come out around 48-52% . What many people don’t realise is that you could get something like 13 consectutive heads and 11 consecutive tails, like I did.
I would also suggest your 21 trades were not all ‘good’ trades. I make sure EVERY one of my trades follow my process throughout. No deviations, they’re like robots going to battle the market.
Also my mindset is that I treat every trade as being a loser until the market proves me wrong. This is emotional control to save me from revenge trading, overtrading and gambling. Thus the pain suffered is when the little roborts go out, not at the outcome. Cut losses, let winning trades run.
Good advice. I’m going to reduce the size of my trades and will start trading in a demo account again. I’m committed to making this work. I feel like everything will just “click” eventually and my trades will start working. It’s hard to accept that I’m not there yet. I’ll keep working on it.
I am wondering if your familiar with Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. In Chapter 7 he discusses trading mindset. We have the opposite mindset when it comes to trading. Every trade I take is a 100 % Winner. … Absolutely positively No Exception… unless I close it out myself …>>> it takes me about 4 years to get here though>>>>
I suppose it’s how you feel when your 100% winner, despite nursing it through its losing journey, hits your S/L?
What is your reaction? If you can shrug and say I got it wrong, then fine. If not, and you go into revenge trading, overtrading or gambling mode, you’ll need to reset your mindset.
There’s a 2021 new psychological book out which provides solutions to what the author describes as emotional signals. I watched an interview with him on Youtube last night, and he has all the mentor credentials that could be worth a read:
The mental game of trading by Jared Tendler. Cost c.$30. Very positive reviews.
Hi @tabiuslee, Yes, I am familiar with Trading in the Zone. I finished reading it a couple of weeks ago. And, ironically, that’s to source of much of my frustration. I tried to do the things Mark Douglas recommended. I locked down my entry, stop-loss, exit, and take-profit criteria. I tried to “think like the casino” where I would allow the system to win/lose without over thinking it, etc. But, the system I was successful with 2 weeks ago, was a total failure last week. Just when I thought I was making progress … back to the drawing board.
I don’t know what your system is or what the pairs you are trading. I am sure though your system works. All the Pairs goes into higher highs or lower lows. I use to run demos on all the forex pairs weekly for directional change now I just trade index’s. Example All Europairs Buy and All Europairs Sell. before opening on Live account test first on demo account. Trade above and below 50/200 Ma on timeframe you are trading on. Confirmation Alligator Jaws Open. Its YOUR MONEY not the BROKERS.
I choose NOT to trade with a Stop Loss and have learned the Hard way to use .01 or .02 Lot size even when my account is now at almost $2000. I continue to grow account 15% week last three months.
Just take Your time and Relax. Have Fun. Trading Forex is EASY EASY EASY its us who break the rules,panic, and make it hard.
Lesson 1 - Make your own decisions - You cannot trade successfully somebody else’s way !
So why change a winning system ?
I think it’s pretty normal that the more you try to analyse this particular way of gambling - the more knowledge you feel you have - the less the results follow what you believe they should !
That is one of the conundrums of this game - and as in all good games - one has to learn a way of redefining your actions to avoid the penalties and maximise the wins you achieve.
Keep at it !
Oh and DO realise that as soon as you “get the hang of it” - Somebody will just change the rules without telling you !
Frustration, Anger, Fear, Depression - All emotions you will have to learn to deal with - if you persist !
Without trying to sound like a stick in the mud, 18 or 21 trades IMO is far too many.
It’s better to take five solid trades a week (sometimes I only have one) than 18 trades.
I know we are all different and can accept different risk tolerance levels but unless you are already consistent trading, the more losing trades you have, the more chance you also have of going full on tilt.
I am not sure if that is what happened - maybe not - but it sure will if you keep up at that rate.
Slow and steady wins the race, particularly in thee early stages of trading.
Finally, this week has been a bit of a stinker of a week in many markets anyway - my own trading sucked too.
The thing to ponder now is did your trading suck because of the market or you?
If it’s the market changing anything at this time, might make things even worse
I would definitely slow down on the number of trades though, at least until you get your mental poise back.
My approach this week will be different. Still trading off Bollinger Band setups, but looking to get into the trends with USDCAD, USDCHF, CADJPY, and CHFJPY. Hopefully, get a good entry, then just ride the wave for a bit.
I think that is the culprit. Too little room for drawdown.
Review your successful trade
Did a breakout just occur when you took those trades
or did you speculated a successful bounce/reversal base on exhaustion or divergence
Does your strategy criteria thrive during period of higher or lower volatility ( entry only works in specific market timezome?)
Did you trade under similar conditions like LAST week?
winrate of 9%, your trend determination had to be way off the chart.
Are you trading at close to a price level whereby daily average HIGH LOW RANGE is almost exhausted.
I think it would be a good idea to do a more extensive BACK TESTING on the efficacy of your methodology before embarking on forward testing again. (Dun waste your time, mortal lifespan are limited)
