Frustrated and need to vent!

[Mondeoman]

@Johnscott31

There is only ONE goal to have in trading, and that is to execute your edge consistently every time.

Monetary goals will do nothing but get in the way of trading results

There speaks the voice of experience. Priceless.

[musicguy1967]

@steve369

What many people don’t realise is that you could get something like 13 consectutive heads and 11 consecutive tails, like I did.

Yeah, and they see those 13 heads and say, “it’s just GOTTA be tails this next toss.” They fail to fully consider that the odds of each individual toss is still 50/50.

[Johnny1974]

[quote=“musicguy1967, post:42, topic:549959, full:true”]

@steve369

What many people don’t realise is that you could get something like 13 consectutive heads and 11 consecutive tails, like I did.

Law of averages The gamblers biggest fallacy !

[Beibian]

I like your analogy of fishing. That a really good way to describe how much control we really have.

[Mupo]

@BCShaf

I woke up this morning ahead $120, but I’m back to $0 as I write this.

Hi! Hope you are okay. I looked the pairs you are trading. I noticed that you trade GBP/JPY. I trade JPY with either GBP, EUR, etc. Anyone trading JPY may agree with me that the GBP/JPY is often quite volatile. Therefore, I don’t know how you are managing it when you trade other currencies at the same time. I save my self watching its trades often times, and re-managing my risks. I think that 6 might be a large # of trades when your pairs include notorious ones.

[BCShaf]

Yes, I’m noticing you’re right. This evening I’m down about $17 on that pair. But, I believe it was up about $30 a day or two ago. Hopefully, things start trending back in my direction later this evening.

[BCShaf]

Thanks, @Mondeoman. I appreciate the honest feedback and advice. I’ve shared everything - maybe too much - on this thread because I figure that’s how I will learn. So, here’s some more truth:

1. Yep, entered the trades on a live account
2. Nope, didn’t back test (I’ve tried, but my criteria for picking trades using Bollinger Bands has been very subjective. I’m not sure how to back test “that looks good.” Open to suggestions.
3. I do have a written trading plan; and, I’ve already updated it based on feedback I’ve received on this thread.
4. “Hopium” and “prediction” - Yep, that’s where I am in my development.
5. I like your suggestion around risk management - I’ll start using your approach with future trades.

Again, thanks!
.

[Mondeoman]

@BCShaf

So, here’s some more truth

Hi,
You got the right idea. I worked last year with a team whose motto was “fail fast, fail often”. The subject matter was robotic process automation, in extreme sprint cycles (Agile framework). It was frustrating to try to tie these developers down, but there is no doubt they achieved huge milestones in terms of capability development. It would be a good idea to read a bit more about back testing, and how it can be applied to the indicators you use (eg bollinger bands). If your criteria for picking trades using bollinger bands has been subjective, try to determine if you can turn subjective into objective. For example, if you can accurately describe what you look for in Bollinger bands that shows you that an entry should be taken, and what you may use as a secondary indicator, it may be possible to turn this into a binary decision - enter or do not enter. Are you using the bands to identify trend reversals or trend continuations? If the latter, what change of pattern do you look for in order to take a decision to enter a trade?

[Mondeoman]

Does this help with regard to backtesting a bollinger band indicator?

[BCShaf]

@Mondeoman

If your criteria for picking trades using bollinger bands has been subjective, try to determine if you can turn subjective into objective.

I really like what you’re saying here. Let me think about this more. I’ll figure something out.

Thank you!

[BCShaf]

Yes! Very helpful.

[TrendReversals]

Try to use a profit to loss ratio of 3:1 and improve your winning percentage by choosing a good strategy. That way even if your winning percentage is 40% you are still making profits. And continue to learn. Forex is not a get rich quick scheme.

[Mupo]

All the best

[AmericanTrader]

@tabiuslee

Same here. The only reason we ever lose a trade is because it hits our stop loss. Almost all trades can be managed after they have been opened to produce a win. It doesn’t matter if price went with you or against you.

No matter which direction it went, there will be a pullback. Always.

That is trading. Master that idea. Figure out how to take advantage of those pullbacks if price was not going our way.

Even though I primarily scalp, I am always looking at the daily charts to be sure that an established trend direction is in process. So when I scalp and I see that the trend is upward, I don’t really care that trend went against me. It becomes an opportunity to add another position so that when price returns to the trend we make even more money.

This mindset allows for stress-free trading because it is done with very small trade sizes. Winning all the time and not losing equals some larger wins and some losses. But the consistency of winning all the time easily makes managing trades the better option.