Fundamental crashes

So yesterday on 19th Nov jpy started to go up you can’t really say other pairs crashed completely they started recovering shortly but I’m pretty new to this and fundamentally newb so I heard it was due to Germany releasing covid reports and all but my question is there was nothing on forex factory about that it being very major news so how do we forsee these kind of events like is there any site or channel where we get know before hand if any event like this is going to happen which can potentially shake the market for some while?
Appreciate your time!

Its actually quite rare that political events affect currencies in a dramatic way. The usual factors are economic news announcements - central bank interest rate decisions, unemployment data releases, purchasing manager data, retail sales reports, inflation rates, etc. All these are routine can be found in a decent economic calendar s their release dates are known in advance.

As for the political events, they and politicians are not always predictable and these things are not calendared in advance. But the best judges for which way a currency is going to go in the near future are all working in the forex market for the big banks. Therefore, if you follow what the big banks are doing you will be right more often than you are wrong. As an example of this principle, see the EUR/CHF crash of 15/01/15.

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Well many news outlets wrote about that, so it definitely got some attention and came under market radars

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Wasn’t Germany. it was Austria (next door) who announced lock down starting Monday - caused a little panic in risk instruments especially given that US indices had closed evening before at all time highs.

Rule no.1 is protect profit - thus selling risk always happens faster than buying it.

Was speaking about here on Friday as it happened - btw want to learn about risk in the market?

Look at the Nasdaq vs the USD2000 this past week - figure how techs perform in a lockdown and then imagine that you have money sitting in the bank earning zilch and maybe in the small caps there lurks another Apple - if you are willing to take the risk you will buy some small caps for the big returns.

Govt Bonds are very safe so you buy 'em for no risk.

Current Affairs effect on the market - Trading Discussion / Economics - Forex Trading Forum


Twitter is very useful for this kind of thing, many pages on there that specifically post news like this


yes i agree with you , all professional traders moves here

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it was before but not now , i always move on twitter , so easy i could marked your point that you explained

You will find, as you progress, that evry time a price mves up or down there will be “Analysts” who dig around and find a bit of “news” which they can show their superior “knowledge” by “blaming” as a reason for that move.

You will probably conclude eventually that - these “Analysts” - haven’t got a Bloody clue what they are talking about - they’re just getting paid to fill up “Column inches” - or doing it for free - just to blow their own trumpet !

Many of us take these “explanations” with a rather large pinch of salt ! :wink:


My experience tells that there are not reliable news source to retail traders, news that could trigger market movements in logical direction. Sometimes Reuters is, sometimes Bloomberg, sometimes just economic calendar announcements. I think maturity of jpy is near for reversal. Besides most of new trend moves have started not out of big announcements.

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I should also add that there was 2 main reasons the JPY Gained, 1 was due to risk aversion, see when there is any form of uncertainty around the market, such as the lockdown situations spreading across Europe currently, people start to move their money out of the perceived ‘riskier’ assets into the perceived ‘safe havens’ JPY being one of them. You can look into risk On/Off if you would like some more information on this type of thing. Secondly, on Friday Japan had approved a new stimulus package, which is set to aid their economy back on track, this no doubt adds an extra attractiveness to the currency alongside the risk aversion.

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Went short ftse and dax on the Austrian ‘news’ and exited longs on Gbp/Usd - then the rest of the market followed me :slight_smile:

Will I go long again Gbp? - hmmm… no bad news over the weekend so why not.

Thanks, thats very helpful and so i have read about risk on/off i was only wondering if i could see the risk off coming someway so what exactly to search for on twitter?
Also please correct me if i’m wrong, japan aiding its economy implies that they are going to devalue their currency so that they can import more? so adding the risk off factor where its currency appreciates, we can see indecisiveness in market?

Not quite, If a country is trying to aid its economy, such as this stimulus package, that would mean that the relative value of their currency ‘should’ go up, regardless of if that’s their intention or not, as I understand it this would in turn lower the cost of imports. Yes you can monitor risk ON/OFF flows generally by watching the main indices such as FTSE - Hang Seng - ASX - S&P 500 and VIX which moves the direct opposite to the others in most cases. Use the appropriate instrument for whichever time zone you are watching the markets in, as they all open/ close at different times. So in general, risk OFF you will see these instruments going down with the VIX & JPY climbing, this is because people are pulling money out of the so called riskier assets and injecting it into safe havens such as the Yen and the direct opposite can be said for risk ON. As for twitter pages, I would start with ForexLive and DailyFX Live, you will then be able to go through and find others which they may retweet.

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Thank a bunch for info I’ll definitely read into those! :+1:

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It’s almost impossible to predict some isues which can happen to economic in the whole world. Even experienced economist can’t do it, what can we tell about ordinary people. In my opinion, we can just build guesses but these guesses don’t mean that the forecast will be true one. As far as I concerned, traders can learn how to predict small changes in economic based on the information which was given earlier, but in this case you must have an analytical thinking and in fact not all traders own this analytical thinking. If you will build guesses, maybe once you will be lucky and your forecast will turn to be the truth.