Hi,
Having currently based all my learning around technical analysis I now need some guidance in the fundamental department.
Being a new-by I aim to trade the EURUSD pair when I go live in the coming months.
I already follow a economic calendar on my phone but need help with what’s important to my pair.
Could someone(s) tell me 3 or so events I should follow and read up on.
Thanks
Hey! Glad to know you’re trying to learn fundamental analysis as well, I believe it’s a good complement to trading on technicals. For starters, check out the GDP, employment change/jobless rate, and CPI releases of the major economies. These usually have a huge impact on price action during the actual release then they tend to have a longer-term effect as well.
PipDiddy, indeed, and I would also recommend to wait for weekend releases when markets are idle. Then you will have more opportunity to catch and enter at significiant price spikes or fall and speculate on it.
HI,
Here is a picture of a kind of long term effect.
ECB Int.bmp (303 KB)
I read the releases and try to keep in mind what moved the market. I can then see why (apparently) the chart does what it does.
That’s true. Weekend gaps tend to be huge sometimes so I wait for those to get filled then establish my positions for the week. Just a little tricky lately though, as volatility has picked up and trends don’t seem to last.
Am I right in saying that PMI releases in itself isn’t an economic release, what we have is different sectors (manufacturing, servicing…) that release PMI data for their sectors??
What other sectors release this data, and which are the most influential?
I mainly focus on the eur/usd/gbp crosses at the moment.
Thanks
Corriston,
There is this: “ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm” website (copy and paste) with US pmi and comments. There is global pmi somewhere. all of it has some bearing on what the central banks do.
With regards to trading fundamentals,search for older posts/threads by banker928/ilovepizzamore.
He makes it look easy and is one of the few who can back up his talk with proven results.word of warning,some of his posts are tongue in cheek.
Well it’s part of the forex economic calendar so I guess some traders refer to the PMI as an economic release, but it’s not really part of the major ones. It does tend to have a huge impact on price action though, at least in the short-term. Here are the ones that I find most influential:
US ISM manufacturing PMI
UK manufacturing PMI
UK services PMI
French and German manufacturing and services PMI (because these are released all on the same day, so the effect on the euro tends to be huge especially if the actual figures miss or beat expectations)
Hope this helps!
Yeah, PMI is regarded as ‘leading’ because the purchasing department of business is ‘leading’, increased purchases means (hopefully, or at least anticipated) increased sales in the future.
The ‘speaking’ news can be a little more tricky, having said that sometimes it is possible to get a little heads up on what may be said.
Case in point, Carney (Gov of BOE) is new into the job, he will speak at 10.30 gmt along with the inflation report. Many investors having been watching closely the UK employment numbers, they have been falling, there was a suspicion that interest rates might rise… not with Carney’s attitude it seems: