[B]COPPER[/B]
Copper climbed for a third session on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to existing stimulus measures, while an improving outlook for demand also bolstered prices. 3M copper rose 0.60 % to $7,917.50 building on small gains in the previous session.
[B] OIL[/B]
Brent crude oil prices steadied near a month-low beneath $113 a barrel on Wednesday as traders weighed expectations the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program will be maintained against the sixth straight weekly rise in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude shed 9 cents to $112.62 hitting a low of $112.23, its weakest point since Jan. 23. U.S. crude gained 54 cents to $93.17, supported by the EIA’s report of a 75,000 barrel decline in crude oil inventories
[B]FACTORS[/B]
Gold ETP fell to a 5M low of 2,508.53 MT yesterday (4 % monthly down) biggest fall since April 2008
Gold ETP holdings have dropped by 103.7 tons Feb more than five times the net sales in January.
Fed Chairman. Bernanke's defense of assset purchases and Italian election stoked demand
Bernanke testimony :the Fed may hold bonds on its $3.1 trillion balance sheet to maturity
$85 billion in Automatic federal spending cuts begin to take from tomorrow.
MARKET PULSE
INDIA: Global funds bought $89 m of debt on March 7, which was the 9th day of inflow.
INDIA: Global Funds added more than $4 billion in stocks for the the past three months.
US: The USD Index approaches its highest level in seven months.
US: FORECAST: U.S. data this week may show a pickup in retail sales.
US: USD Index has rallied 3.8 % in 2013.
MARKETS : The $639 trillion OTC derivatives market are now required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act to have most of their trades settled on exchanges .Commodities
WTI Oil Drops From One-Week High as Saudi Arabia Boosts Output.
Hedge Funds cut positions on commodities to 2009 Low .
Gold Swings Between Gains and Losses on USD, Physical Demand.INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR declined after 3-day advance, falling 0.1% to 54.3650 . 1 month volatility fell 9 BP to 9.18 %. 3 month forwards at 55.54 compared with 55.34, 3 month NDF at 55.50 versus 55.36. 1-year IRS at 7.5700% , 5-year IRS at 7.2300% , 10Y Benchmark at 7.845%
FACTORS
Technical: Pivot point at 54.3763; resistance at 54.1901, 54.0888, 53.8013; support at 54.4776, 54.6638,54.9513. INR near 100-DMA resistance at 54.2610, subsequent resistance at 50-DMA - 54.1859, support at 200-DMA -54.7360.
Global funds bought $ 89 m of local bonds on March 7, which was the 9th day of inflow.
Global funds bought a net $491 million of Indian stocks this month ,
Global Funds added more than $4 billion in stocks for the past three months.
Data Release: trade data at 11 am local time today.
The USD Index, approaches its highest level in seven months.GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold traded at $1,581.39 in Asia compared to $1,578.80 on March 8th. Gold April rose 0.3 % to
$1,580.90. Spot Silver increased 0.3 % to $29.08, reversing a 0.3% decline.
FACTORS
FORECAST: U.S. data this week may show a pickup in retail sales.
USD Index gained as much as 0.2 % to 82.858 nearing the seven month high.
USD Index has rallied 3.8 % in 2013.COPPER
Copper inched higher on Monday,underpinned by short-covering after closing firmer for a first week in four, as patchy growth indicators from top consumer China overshadowed an emerging recovery in the U.S. labor market. Three-month copper rose 0.30 % to $7,763.25 building on small gains from the previous session when it logged its first higher weekly close in four weeks , up a modest 0.52 %.
OIL
U.S. crude rose on Thursday by about a USD on jobless claims falling unexpectedly in the United States and a weakening USD, while Brent prices dropped slightly after a North Sea pipeline restarted following a shutdown. Brent crude for April delivery fell 16 cents to $110.90. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 99 cents to $91.42,driving Brent’s premium to WTI down to $19.36, from $20.63 on Wednesday.
DGCX INR Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange
DGCX INR
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
PD CLOSE
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
183.95
183.88
184.34
184.05
54.3626
54.3833
54.2476
54.3331
MARKET PULSE
EURO ZONE : ECB will maintain its accommodative stance "as long as necessary," according to Jens Weidmann, an ECB council member and head of Germany's Bundesbank.
UK:industrial output fell in January, which boosted opinion that BoE may add to stimulus.
U.K : inflation expectations climbed to a 4 1/2-year .
UK: GBP dropped to the lowest level against the USD since June 2010.
Japan : two opposition parties said today they will endorse Kikuo Iwatafor Bank of Japan deputy governor.
US: FORECAST: U.S. retail sales advanced in February for a fourth month.
GOLD : ETPs at 2,472.891 MT yesterday, the lowest since September.
Commodities
Gold Trades Near Two-Week High on Stimulus, Rising Asian Demand.
WTI Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as U.S. Crude Supplies Decline.
Gold Caps Longest Rally in Six Months.
MARKETS
DJIA
14450.06
2.7
EUR
1.3039
0.0
DINR1M
184.05
0
NSE1M
54.3675
-0.0475
NASDAQ
3242.321
-10.5
GBP
1.4938
0.0
DINR2M
182.85
0.04
NSE2M
54.74
-0.0525
FTSE
6510.62
7.0
JPY
95.66
-0.4
INR-Spot
54.1563
-0.0362
MCX1M
54.3675
-0.0525
NIKKEI
12280.48
-34.3
GOLD
1592.45
-0.4
NDF1M
54.57
-0.02
MCX2M
54.7325
-0.05
HANG-S
22703.31
-187.3
SILVER
29.1675
0.0
NDF2M
54.87
-0.01
WTI
92.71
0.17
NIFTY
5874.35
-39.8
3MCU
7830.25
0.3
SENSEX
19477.25
-87.67
BRENT
109.42
-0.23
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR rose 0.2% to 54.1025 , 1-month volatility slid 15 bps to 8.8850%. 12-month NDFs declined 0.1% to 57.60 . 1 Year IRS at 7.5925%, 5-year IRS at 7.2350%. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.891%.
FACTORS
Technical: INR breached pivot resistance at 54.1084; next resistance at 54.0242, 53.7892; pivot point at 54.2592; support at 54.3434, 54.4942, 54.7292.
Consensus forecast : Cumulative 50 bps of RBI policy rate cuts by year end.
RBI likely to ease further, though timing is more uncertain, market moves to neutral on INR from being positive prior to budget.
Global funds bought $ 76.2 m of local bonds more than they sold on March 11.
Government to sell 70 b INR of 91-day bills and 50 b INR of 182-day bills today.
GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold at $1,593.20 in Asia rising from $1,592.80 yesterday, when it climbed to $1,598.80, the highest intra-day price since Feb. 28. Gold April was little changed at $1,592.70. Gold has had four days of gains, the best run since August. Cash silver rose 0.1 % to $29.1775.
FACTORS
Gold at a two week high on prospects for additional stimulus from central banks.
ECB will maintain its accommodative stance "as long as necessary," according to Jens Weidmann, an ECB council member and head of Germany's Bundesbank.
UK: industrial output fell in January which boosted opinion that BoE may add to stimulus.
Japan : two opposition parties said today they will endorse Kikuo Iwatafor as Bank of Japan deputy governor.
FORECAST: U.S. retail sales advanced in February for a fourth month.
Gold ETPs at 2,472.891MT yesterday, the lowest since September.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD traded at 95.95 yen, having scaled a 3-1/2 peak of 96.71. The euro eased to 125.11 yen, but remained within easy reach of a one-month high of 126.03 set on Tuesday.
FACTORS
Bullish bets on the yen in the options market climbed to an eight-month high.
The Bank of England said it has the edge to be the first of G7 to sign a currency-swap agreement with the People's Bank of China after a meeting last month.
U.K. inflation expectations climbed to a 4 1/2-year .
GBP dropped to the lowest level against the USD since June 2010 .
Yuan forwards advanced for a seventh day, the longest winning streak since September 2010, on optimism China will embark on further currency reforms.
COPPER
Copper drifted on Wednesday from almost two-week highs hit in the previous session as a short-covering burst began to fade, while Chinese consumers stayed on the sidelines amid the country’s ongoing policy-setting parliamentary meeting. Three-month copper slipped by 0.24 % to $7,811.50, reversing an advance from the previous session when it rose by 1 %.
OIL
Brent crude edged lower on Tuesday, seesawing with the euro and the USD, while U.S. crude rose after holding above a key technical level the previous two sessions. Brent April crude fell 20 cents to $110.02, having traded from $109.55 to $111.20. The Brent April contract expires on Thursday. U.S. April crude was up 90 cents at $90.96 a barrel,having reached $93.47.
DGCX INR Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange
DGCX INR
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
PD CLOSE
Monday, March 25, 2013
184.08
184.04
184.95
184
54.3242
54.3360
54.0687
54.3478
MARKET PULSE
EURO- ZONE: Cyprus agreed to an international aid package.
EURO- ZONE The troika representing international lenders, ratified by finance ministers from the 17-nation EZ, will pave the way for 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) of loans to Cyprus.
US: The USD Index, fell for a 4th day, losing 0.2 %.
GOLD: ETP products fell for a sixth week and were at 2,454.35 MT (Lowest since August 2009).
INDIA : All restrictions for purchases of government and corporate notes will be removed from April 1.
INDIA : Foreign Investor cap at $25 billion for sovereign debt and $51 billion for corporate bonds.
COMMODITIES
WTI Oil Gains on Cyprus Deal; Brent Premium Narrowest Since July.
Hedge Funds Most Bearish Ever on Copper, Favor Gold.
Gold Advances as Accord for Cyprus , Weakens USD.
Industrial Metals Advance as Cyprus Deal Wins Approval .
MARKETS
DJIA
14512.03
90.5
EUR
1.3038
0.0
DINR1M
184.89
0.89
NSE1M
54.1075
-0.245
NASDAQ
3244.999
22.0
GBP
1.5247
0.0
DINR2M
183.54
0.99
NSE2M
54.5025
-0.2675
FTSE
6392.76
4.2
JPY
94.79
0.3
INR-Spot
54.08
-0.2612
MCX1M
54.1075
-0.2475
NIKKEI
12574.43
235.9
GOLD
1610.9
2.4
NDF1M
54.48
-0.31
MCX2M
54.51
-0.2575
HANG-S
22294.54
179.2
SILVER
28.8513
0.1
NDF2M
54.8
-0.3
WTI
94.22
0.51
NIFTY
5687.65
36.3
3MCU
7683.5
28.5
SENSEX
18851.7
116.1
BRENT
108.3
0.64
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR advanced 0.5% to 54.0850. 1-month volatility rose 9 bps to 8.6275%. 3-month forwards traded at 55.21 versus. 55.42. 3-month NDFs were at 55.12 versus 55.39. 10 year benchmark at 7.959%.
FACTORS
Technical : INR breaches resistance at 54.2599 and 54.1787, next resistance at 54.0187; pivot point at 54.3387; support at 54.4199, 54.4987, 54.6587. INR between 100 DMA at 54.3768 and 50 DMA at 54.0674
Government's share offer in Steel Authority of India is now completed.
All restrictions for purchases of government and corporate notes will be removed from April 1.
Foreign Investor cap at $25 billion for sovereign debt and $51 billion for corporate bonds.
India current account deficit forecast at $75 billion 2013-2014.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold Spot up 0.3 % at $1,613.76 and was trading at $1,611.43 in Asia . Gold June rose 0.3 % to $1,612.20 after declining 0.3 % in the previous session. Silver spot rose 0.6 % to $28.92 .
FACTORS
Cyprus agreed to an international aid package.
The troika representing international lenders, ratified by finance ministers from the 17-nation euro area, will pave the way for 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) of loans to Cyprus.
The USD Index, fell for a 4th day, losing 0.2 %.
Cyprus is the 5th country to request for aid, since the crisis broke out in Greece in 2009.
Gold ETP products fell for a sixth week and were at 2,454.35 MT (Lowest since August 2009).
.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
Euro rose broadly on Monday. EUR rose 0.4 % to $1.3043,having traded at roughly $1.2985 before news of the Cyprus Aid . EUR-JPY up 0.8% to 123.75.
FACTORS
Euro Rises Versus Peers as Cyprus Aid Approved.
Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades agreed to shut the country's second-largest bank .
AUD reaches 2-month high on Cyprus aid agreement.
Japan Household Assets Rose 3.1% in 4th Quarter, as declared by BOJ.
COPPER
Copper rose on Monday after Cyprus reached an outline deal with international lenders for a 10 billion euro loan, which boosted appetite for high yielding assets and soothing concerns over the impact of a euro zone default on demand for metals. 3-month copper up 0.50 % to $7,693.25. It had risen 1 % in the previous session.
OIL
Brent crude futures fell on Thursday on concerns of worries about the outlook for petroleum demand in Europe. Brent May crude fell $1.25, or 1.15 %, to settle at $107.47 a barrel, having traded from $107.08 to $108.75.
MARKET PULSE
• US : FORECAST payrolls grew in March, according to a forecast of 58 economists.
• EURO-ZONE: FORECAST unemployment climbed to a record in February.
• GOLD: ETP fell 6.9 % this year as the USD Index gained 4.2 %.
• PLATINUM: ETP rose to a record of 52.3814 MT on March 28.
• GOLD : Falls 4.6% in Q1 , first two consecutive quarterly declines.
• CHINA: March manufacturing PMI at 50.9 vs estimate of 51.2. ( Highest growth in 11 months).
• INDIA: Overseas funds added $1.9 in equities March adding to f $4.1 billion in February.
COMMODITIES
• Bullish Bets Rebound at Fastest Pace in Four Years in Commodities
• WTI Slides From Six-Week High; Exxon Shuts Gulf Coast Pipeline
• Copper Drops to 8-Month Low in Shanghai on China Manufacturing
• Spot Gold Little Changed as Stronger USD Seen Reducing Demand
MARKETS
DJIA 14578.54 52.3 EUR 1.279 0.0 DINR1M 182.11 -0.17 NSE1M 54.675 0
NASDAQ 3267.521 11.0 GBP 1.5198 0.0 DINR2M 181.11 -0.14 NSE2M 54.99 0
FTSE 6411.74 24.2 JPY 93.81 -0.4 INR-Spot 54.28 0 MCX1M 54.6725 0
NIKKEI 12236.26 -161.7 GOLD 1599.34 1.8 NDF1M 54.92 0 MCX2M 54.985 0
HANG-S 22299.63 0.0 SILVER 28.211 -0.1 NDF2M 55.22 0 WTI 96.8 -0.43
NIFTY 5708.35 25.8 3MCU 7540 0.0 SENSEX 18913.81 78.04 BRENT 109.66 -0.36
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
There were no trades in India’s bond and currency markets today as banks closed their accounts for the financial year ended March 31. INR gained 0.2 % on March 28, taking the 1st quarter’s advance to 1.3 %. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.95%. INR, ended last quarter at 54.28 and may trade between 54 and 55 in the coming weeks.
FACTORS
• Overseas funds added $1.9 in equities March adding to f $4.1 billion in February.
• Corporate appetite for offshore loans will be intact as long as the currency is at current levels.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,598.58 versus $1,598.75.The price dropped 4.6 % in the 1st quarter to complete the 1st two consecutive quarterly declines since 2001. Silver declined 1 % to $28.165 - the weakest since March 27, extending two quarterly drops
FACTORS
• U.S. recovery and stronger USD may cut gold demand.
• FORECAST : U.S. payrolls grew in March, according to the median forecast of 58 economists
• FORECAST : Euro-Zone unemployment climbed to a record in February.
• ETP fell 6.9 % this year as the USD Index gained 4.2 %.
• Platinum ETP rose to a record of 52.3814 MT on March 28,
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The euro traded at $1.2801, down about 0.1 % from late Asian trade on Friday and near a 4-month low of $1.2750 hit on Wednesday.
FACTORS
• Euro Declines After Monthly Drop on Weakening Economic Recovery
• China’s March manufacturing PMI at 50.9 vs estimate of 51.2 .
• China’s yuan rose to a 19-year high .
• China manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace in 11 months.
COPPER
Copper fell to its lowest level in more than 8 months on Monday, pressured by a weak euro and new measures to cool down China’s property sector. July copper contract fell 1.9 % to $8,700 lowest since July 25
OIL
Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday in choppy trading as U.S. heating oil rallied on falling distillate inventories, while rising crude oil stockpiles in the United States and the stronger USD limited gains. Brent May crude rose 33 cents to settle at $109.69, after reaching $109.98, testing resistance near its 200-day moving average of $109.90. The session low was $108.85. U.S. May crude rose 24 cents to settle at $96.58, having traded from $95.58 to $96.84, which was the highest intra day price in five weeks.
MARKET PULSE
• US: The ISM factory index fell to 51.3 from an almost two-year high of 54.2 in February.
• EURO ZONE: FORECAST: Unemployment in the euro area climbed to a record 12 %.
• EURO ZONE: ECB to announce the interest-rate decision on Thursday 4th April 2013.
• EURO ZONE Cyprus seeks more time to meet targets in talks with Troika.
• EURO ZONE Barclays FORECAST Sees slow-down taking Euro to $1.23.
• EURO ZONE German inflation at 2- Year low ( 1.7 % from 1.8 % in February)
• INDIA: Current-account deficit record $32.6 billion in Q1 (previous quarter’s $22.6 billion)
• INDIA: Needs $75 billion of foreign capital in the year through March 2014 to fund the deficit.
COMMODITIES
• WTI Drops for a Second Day; U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Rising
• Copper Tumbles to Seven-Month Low as Metals Fall on Factory Data
• Gold Climbs for Third Day as Silver Rebounds Following U.S. Data
• Copper Below March Low Signaling More Losses:
MARKETS
DJIA 14572.85 -5.7 EUR 1.2864 0.0 DINR1M 182.95 0.26 NSE1M 54.67 -0.005
NASDAQ 3239.173 -28.3 GBP 1.5238 0.0 DINR2M 181.89 0.19 NSE2M 54.985 -0.005
FTSE 6411.74 24.0 JPY 92.81 -0.4 INR-Spot 54.3288 0.0488 MCX1M 54.67 -0.0025
NIKKEI 12051.2 -83.8 GOLD 1602.28 2.8 NDF1M 54.74 0.05 MCX2M 54.9875 0.0025
HANG-S 22317.97 18.3 SILVER 28.055 0.0 NDF2M 55.04 0 WTI 96.69 -0.38
NIFTY 5695.6 -8.8 3MCU 7455.25 -84.8 SENSEX 18854.14 -10.61 BRENT 110.77 -0.31
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR declines 0.1% to 54.3325; 1-month volatility slides 6 BP to 8.0375%. 3 Month INR forwards traded at 55.39 Vs. 55.33. 3M NDF at 55.35 vs. 55.53 . 10 Year Benchmark at 7.985 , 1-year IRS at 7.4750%; 5-year IRS at 7.2300%
FACTORS
• Technical: INR approaching 100 DMA at 54.3887.
• Current-account at a record $32.6 billion in Q1( previous quarter’s $22.6 billion).
• Needs $75 billion of foreign capital in the year through March 2014 to fund the deficit.
• INR strengthened 1.3 % last quarter.
• USD Index fell 0.2 % today after data yesterday showed U.S. manufacturing slid in March.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold Spot up 0.3 % to $1,603.88. Silver gained 0.6 % to $28.1925 Vs. $28.0375. It was the lowest settlement since Aug. 15,and 19.9 % below the closing high on Oct. 4.
FACTORS
• US: The ISM factory index fell to 51.3 from an almost two-year high of 54.2 in February,
• Gold ETP increased to 2,449.95 MT from 2449.839 tons last week.
• FORECAST: Unemployment in the euro area climbed to a record 12 %.
• European Central Bank to announce the interest-rate decision on Thursday 4th April 2013
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY at 1-month high. USD fell 0.3 % to 93.04 yen, having fallen as far as 92.96, the USD’s lowest level against the JPY since early March.
FACTORS
• CAD at 5-Week High on Job Forecast .
• Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika .
• Barclays FORECAST Sees slow-down taking Euro to $1.23.
• German inflation at 2- Year low ( 1.7 % from 1.8 % in February).
OIL
Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel in choppy trading on Monday as a weaker USD provided support, while U.S. crude prices fell as a pipeline leak in Arkansas threatened to increase the glut of oil in the U.S. Midwest. Brent May crude rose $1.20 to $111.22 having risen above the 200-day moving average of $110.05. U.S. May crude was down 28 cents at $96.95 after hitting a six-week high of $97.80 during the session.
MARKET PULSE
• US: New Factory Orders rose the most in five months .
• US : S&P 500 Index closed higher to a new record (Up 10 % in 2013).
• US : USD Index up 4 %.in 2013.
• GOLD : SG : Gold at $1,375 by December , Average $1,500 2013 , and $1400 in 2014.
• GOLD : SPDR Gold Trust, worlds biggest ETF fell to 1,208.92 MT (Lowest since July 2011) .
• AUSTRALIA : AUD rose on a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit.
• CENTRAL BANKS reserves up $30.1 billion in CAD and AUD (Q4 2012) versus $31.5 billion in USD.
• UK: Inflation: Retail prices rose 1.4 % Year on Year versus 1.1 % in February.
• INDIA : Global funds bought $ 459 m of local bonds on April 1st, biggest 1-day inflow.
COMMODITIES
• WTI Crude Drops as U.S. Oil Stockpiles Gain Most in Four Weeks
• Gold Declines to Three-Week Low as Investors Reduce Holdings
• Gold Futures Decline the Most in Five Weeks
MARKETS
DJIA 14662.01 90.0 EUR 1.2805 0.0 DINR1M 182.86 0.19 NSE1M 54.685 0.0775
NASDAQ 3254.862 15.7 GBP 1.5087 0.0 DINR2M 181.76 0.16 NSE2M 55.015 0.0775
FTSE 6490.66 79.0 JPY 93.53 0.1 INR-Spot 54.3712 0.1024 MCX1M 54.6825 0.075
NIKKEI 12314 310.6 GOLD 1567.69 -8.2 NDF1M 54.77 -0.09 MCX2M 55.015 0.0775
HANG-S 22330.89 -36.9 SILVER 27.0825 -0.2 NDF2M 55.07 -0.1 WTI 96.69 -0.5
NIFTY 5724.45 -23.7 3MCU 7480 15.0 SENSEX 18984.86 -56.09 BRENT 110.34 -0.35
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR declines for first time in 3 trading days, falling 0.3% to 54.4050. 1-month volatility at 7.9925%. 3-month forwards at 55.44 versus 55.35. 3-Month NDF at 55.37 versus 55.28. 10 year benchmark at 7.993%.1-year IRS at 7.4600%, 5-year IRS at 7.2350%.
FACTORS
• Technical :Support at 54.3451; next support at 54.4213, 54.5488; pivot point at 54.2938; resistance at 54.2176, 54.1663, 54.0388.
• Global funds bought $ 459 m of local bonds more than they sold on April 1, biggest 1-day inflow.
• Trade Deficit at $32.6 on imports of oil and gold , export growth slows.
• USD Index fell 0.2 % on 3rd April.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot fell 0.8 % to $1,563.68 (Lowest since March 8 ). Gold June fell 0.5 % to $1,568. Cash silver, fell
0.9 % to $27.025,( lowest since Aug. 2, 2012).
FACTORS
• SPDR Gold Trust, worlds biggest ETF fell to 1,208.92 MT (Lowest since July 2011)
• US : New Factory Orders rose the most in five months
• S&P 500 Index closed higher to a new record (Up 10 % in 2013)
• USD Index up 4 %.in 2013
• Societe Generale : Gold at $1,375 by December , Average $1,500 2013 , and $1400 in 2014
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The yen retreated from a 1-month high , while the euro was lower too. JPY at 93.37 (1-month low of 92.57 on Tuesday) . It was still some way off a 3-1/2 year high of 96.71 set last month.
FACTORS
• EUR weaker on opinion of stimulus from ECB tomorrow.
• BoJ 2-day meeting. Opinion may increase monthly bond purchases due to deflation.
• AUD rose on a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit.
• Central Banks reserves up $30.1 billion in CAD and AUD (Q4 2012) versus $31.5 billion in USD.
• UK: Inflation: Retail prices rose 1.4 % Year on Year versus 1.1 % in February.
OIL
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as concerns about supply and the pace of growth in the United States and the Euro Zone economy tempered optimism about stronger demand in Asia.
• Brent May crude fell 44 cents to $110.64 , after hitting an early high of $111.79. The low for the session of $110 a barrel saw Brent below the 200-day moving average at $110.17.
• U.S. May crude was up 14 cents at $ 97.21 , after earlier falling to a low of $ 95.91.
• The Brent/U.S. crude spread narrowed to around $13.60 after widening to $14.66 earlier in the session.
EOS EDGE: In preferences if “cancel on logout is ticked” orders will get cancelled on log out.
DGCX INR OPEN HIGH LOW PD CLOSE
Thursday, April 04, 2013 182.41 181.9 182.55 182.3
54.8216 54.9753 54.7795 54.8546
MARKET PULSE
• GOLD Down 18.7% from high ($1,900.23 Sep 2011) near 20 % that defines a bear market.
• GOLD ETP stood at 2,437.38 MT yesterday, 7.4 % below the high reached on Dec. 20, 2012
• US companies added fewer jobs than projected.
• U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to report non-farm payrolls data for March tomorrow.
• US Fed President J. Bullard “no hurry to reduce bond buying with inflation below its 2 % target.”
• EURO- ZONE Draghi Considers Plan B as Sentiment Dims After Cyprus .
• UK FORECAST: BoE to hold asset purchases at 375 billion pounds ($568 billion) today
DJIA 14550.35 -112.0 EUR 1.2836 0.0 DINR1M 182.09 -0.21 NSE1M 54.91 0.16
NASDAQ 3218.604 -36.3 GBP 1.5106 0.0 DINR2M 181.00 -0.25 NSE2M 55.245 0.1575
FTSE 6420.28 -70.4 JPY 94.42 1.4 INR-Spot 54.6275 0.1875 MCX1M 54.9075 0.1575
NIKKEI 12451.87 89.7 GOLD 1549.62 -8.3 NDF1M 55.02 0.1 MCX2M 55.2425 0.1625
HANG-S 22337.49 0.0 SILVER 26.9 -0.1 NDF2M 55.37 0.11 WTI 94.41 -0.04
NIFTY 5618.9 -54.0 3MCU 7342.5 -45.5 SENSEX 18681.01 -120.63 BRENT 107.38 0.27
INDIAN RUPEE
MARKETS
INR declines for 2nd day, fell 0.2% to 54.5550. 1-Month volatility down 8 bps to 7.7800%. 3-month forwards at 55.71 versus 55.49, NDF at 55.69 versus 55.43… 10 Year benchmark at 7.95% . 1-year IRS at 7.4050%; 5-year IRS at 7.2100%
FACTORS
• Technical : INR broke support at 54.4904, 54.5408; next support at 54.6620; pivot point at 54.4196; resistance at 54.3692, 54.2984, 54.1772.
• Indian exporters to get 30 billion INR of additional incentives
• GDP in the U.S. rose at a 0.4 % annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a 0.1 % estimate.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold Spot lost 1 % to $1,541.82 (lowest l since May 30), Gold June down 0.8 % to $1,541.20 . Spot silver fell 1 % to $26.73 (lowest since July 24) .
FACTORS
• Gold down 18.7% from its record close of $1,900.23 in September 2011, nearing the 20 % that defines a bear market.
• ETP stood at 2,437.38 MT yesterday, 7.4 % below the high reached on Dec. 20, 2012
• US companies added fewer jobs than projected.
• U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to report non-farm payrolls data for March tomorrow.
• Fed President J. Bullard “no hurry to reduce bond buying with inflation below its 2 % target.”
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The yen held near one-month highs against the USD , JPY at 93.05 down from a session high of 93.69 on Wednesday. It has lost nearly 4 % from a 3-1/2 year peak of 96.71 . Initial support is seen around 92.55, the 23.6 % retracement of its Nov-March rally.
FACTORS
• CAD Falls From 6-Week High as Crude Oil, Stocks Drop
• Draghi Considers Plan B as Sentiment Dims After Cyprus .
• FORECAST UK will hold its target for asset purchases at 375 billion pounds ($568 billion) today.
• AUD up after Retail Sales exceeds forecasts.
COPPER
Copper slipped to its lowest in eight months on Thursday after weak jobs data suggested that the U.S.labor market recovery may not be sustained, hurting demand expectations for metals in a thin market with China out for a two-day break. 3-month copper fell to its lowest since August 3 at $7,356.25 before paring loses to $7, still down 0.24 % .
OIL
Oil prices fell more than 2 % on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories grew to their highest level since 1990 and weak economic data stoked worries about U.S. energy demand. Brent crude was down $2.72 at $107.97 having fallen as low as $107.78. U.S. crude was down $2.19 at $95 a barrel, having fallen to $94.89, just above the 50-day moving average at $94.64.
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR climbs for 3rd day, rising 0.2% to 54.4762. 1-month volatility drops 1 bp to 7.7650% . 1-year IRS at 7.4275%; 5-year IRS at 7.2050% , 10 Year Benchmark at 7.913% .
FACTORS
• Technical: Pivot point at 54.64; resistance at 54.44, 54.305, 53.97; support at 54.775, 54.975, 55.31. rises above 200-DMA at 54.6327.
• Goldman Sachs recommends staying long USD/INR.
• Barclays: March trade deficit to improve to $ 13 b, from $15 on positive impact of INR fall .
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,575.16 up from $1,573.64 yesterday. Low of 0.2 % down to $1,570.67. Gold for June flat at $1,573.50. Spot silver flat at $27.345.
FACTORS
• Fed’s. Bernanke "economy stronger now than 4 years ago, but far from where he would like ".
• ETF fell for a fifth day to 2,433.125 MT, the lowest level since Aug.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The JPY at multi-year lows versus the USD and EUR on Tuesday . USD up 99.60 with a 4 year high of 99.65 ( near 100) , EUR-JPY at 129.69 (Highest since January 2010.) .
FACTORS
• USD falls on Fed Bernanke’s comment .
• U.S. economy’s overall net worth is about 550 % of GDP in 2011.
• U.S. 1Q earnings Alcoa, 1Q adj. EPS of 11 c vs estimate 8 c, rev. $5.83 b vs est. $5.88 b.
• CHINA : Exports exceeded forecasts by at least 7.5 % in December, January and February.
COPPER
Copper climbed on Tuesday after signs of growth revival in Germany pushed up the EUR and buttressed the demand outlook for metals, while buying from top consumer China extended a steady albeit modest seasonal recovery. 3-month copper up 1.04 % to $7,527.50, extending gains of 0.6 % from the previous session.
OIL
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, lifted by gains in gasoline futures and strong selling of the spread between Brent crude and U.S. crude. Brent’s premium to U.S. WTI futures settled at $11.30 , after narrowing to over $11 in afternoon trade, the lowest level since June.
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR strengthens 0.3% to 54.4250 , 1-Month at 7.8375% . 1-year IRS at 7.4150%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800% . 10 Year Benchmark at 7.875% .
FACTORS
• TECHNICAL: Breached pivot point at 54.5496 and first resistance at 54.4405, with next two resistances at 54.2959,54.0422; support at 54.6942, 54.8033, 55.057. INR is pulling away from lower Bollinger band at 54.7832
• Morgan Stanley expects CPI inflation to reach 10.9% to around 7% by March 2014
• RBS: Economy is currently working its way out of this debt accumulation.
• Government to sell 50b INR of 91-day T-bills and 50b INR of 182- day T- bills today.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,587.48 vs. $1,585.35 yesterday. It rose as high as $1,590.46, (Highest since April 2). The session saw a high of $1,588.64 . Gold June flat at $1,586.20. Cash silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.94, paring yesterday’s 2.5 % rally that was the biggest since November.
FACTORS
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped to 1,200.37 MT yesterday ( Low since June 2011.)
• Gold ETF Holdings have lost 11 % in 2013 as prices fell 5.3 %.
• China unexpectedly posted a trade deficit in March.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY at 4-year low with strategists expecting JPY to break below the 100-yen level. JPY was steady at 99.05 after seeing a low of 99.67 , its weakest level since May 2009.
FACTORS
• BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a Yomiuri newspaper event on April 12.
• CHF-EUR Cap in Sight as Options Signal Strength.
• Gold priced in yen will reach a 33- year high.
• UK: GDP rose 0.1 % in the first quarter after falling 0.3 % in the last three months of 2012.
• FXCM biggest " Retail Currency Broker " With "Gain Capital Holding " purchase.
• Chinese imports grew more than estimated.
• HSBC starts direct trading between the yuan and AUD today.
COPPER
Copper fell on Wednesday from near 2-week highs hit in the previous session, while markets eyed China trade data for signs of a recovery in demand in the top metals consumer. 3- Month copper slipped 0.34 % to $7,598.75 after gaining 2.4 % in the previous session.
OIL
Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday, posting their biggest gain since late December as a weak USD and tame Chinese inflation data drew investors to commodities. U.S. crude oil prices also rose, reaching $94.48 during the session and briefly exceeding the 50-day moving average of $94.44.
INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR strengthens 0.1% to 54.56. 1-Month volatility drops 9 bps to 7.7475% . 1-year IRS at 7.4025%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800%. 10 Year benchmark at 7.95.
FACTORS
• Morgan Stanley CPI inflation to moderate from 10.9% currently to around 7% by March 2014,
• Market shut for local holiday tomorrow
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold up 0.1 % to $1,560.75 after dropping 0.3 % to $1,553.65, (April 5 Low). Gold June at $1,560.30 after losing 1.8 % yesterday. Silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.58, following yesterday’s 1.3 % decline.
FACTORS
• FOMC Minutes: US should begin tapering its QE later this year and stop it by year end
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 1,183.53 MT (May 2010 Low)
• Gold has dropped has dropped 6.8% 2013 as SPDR holdings shrank 12 %. 2013
• Cyprus was told “keep commitments to sell excess gold”
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday cut forecasts for gold through 2014
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY near 100, JPY at 99.79, having fallen to a low of 99.88. It has lost more than 7 % since the BOJ’s radical stimulus program, which is bigger than the US QE.
FACTORS
• Yen Halts Decline Toward 100 as Japanese Sold Offshore Bonds.
• CAD and AUD gain as banks turn to High Yield Currencies.
• BOE’s Miles Says ‘Troubling’ U.K. Outlook Justifies Stimulus.
• Australia: Unemployment rate climbs to 3-Year High.
• Kuroda Says BOJ Has Made All Possible Monetary Moves for Now.
COPPER
Copper was steady on Thursday, supported by growing optimism over China’s economic revival after lending surged in March, but consumers were reluctant to chase prices that hit two-week highs earlier in the week given global oversupply. 3- Month copper flat at $7, after closing down 0.66 % the session before.
OIL
Brent crude oil prices fell on Wednesday dragged down by a steep sell-off in U.S. gasoline futures after a U.S.government report showed an unexpected build in domestic gasoline inventories. Brent May crude settled down 44 cents at $105.79 , having retreated from a session high of $106.47. Brent’s May contract expires on Monday. U.S. May crude settled up 44 cents at $94.64 having swung from $93.40 to $94.82.