FX Analysis by SGT Markets

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Retail Sales data.

Central banks should not only be independent from political pressures but also from short-term pressures such as financial markets’ perceptions of inflation, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said recently. A key gauge of financial markets’ long-term expectations for inflation in the euro zone recently fell to as low as 1.1%. Although it has since edged up to 1.3%, that is not only well below the ECB’s inflation target of close to 2%, but also less than where the gauge stood when the central bank launched its bond-buying program in 2015.

Recent U.S. Core CPI data ticked higher than expected while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to “uncertainty” over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations but Unemployment Rate increasing. U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data ticked down once again.

Both last Eurozone Services PMI and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ticked up. Eurozone CPI (Inflation), Preliminary release, ticked down.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Retail Sales data.

GBP/USD

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes on today Eurozone CPI data.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Central banks should not only be independent from political pressures but also from short-term pressures such as financial markets’ perceptions of inflation, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said recently. A key gauge of financial markets’ long-term expectations for inflation in the euro zone recently fell to as low as 1.1%. Although it has since edged up to 1.3%, that is not only well below the ECB’s inflation target of close to 2%, but also less than where the gauge stood when the central bank launched its bond-buying program in 2015.

Recent U.S. Core CPI data ticked higher than expected while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to “uncertainty” over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations but Unemployment Rate increasing. U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data ticked down once again.

Both last Eurozone Services PMI and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ticked up. Eurozone CPI (Inflation), Preliminary release, ticked down.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

Eyes on today release: CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK CPI data.

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes on Australia Job Market data, later today.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market data

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Central banks should not only be independent from political pressures but also from short-term pressures such as financial markets’ perceptions of inflation, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said recently. A key gauge of financial markets’ long-term expectations for inflation in the euro zone recently fell to as low as 1.1%. Although it has since edged up to 1.3%, that is not only well below the ECB’s inflation target of close to 2%, but also less than where the gauge stood when the central bank launched its bond-buying program in 2015.

Recent U.S. Core CPI data ticked higher than expected while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to “uncertainty” over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Retail Sales data.

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Growing expectations for more aggressive market-friendly action from the Federal Reserve following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to “uncertainty” over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

GBP/USD

Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Growing expectations for more aggressive market-friendly action from the Federal Reserve following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to “uncertainty” over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

Eyes to today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Ears out to UK Prime Minister May speech.

Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. GDP data.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: GDP data

GBP/USD

Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.

UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.

Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last U.S. GDP data ticked higher than expected.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Now eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

GBP/USD

Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We are Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes on Australia CPI data, later today.

Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

We are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.698 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last German Unemployment better than expected. Eyes on today Eurozone CPI and GDP data.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

Last U.S. GDP data ticked higher than expected.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Now eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

Eyes on today release: CPI and GDP data

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

GBP/USD

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We are Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

We are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.698 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted.

Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

Last U.S. GDP data ticked higher than expected.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Now eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

GBP/USD

Eyes to today UK BoE Interest Rate decision.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We are Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to today Australia Retail Sales data, later today.

Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

We are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.698 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

Eyes to today release: Retail Sales data

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Now eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Services PMI

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We are Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

We are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

The European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows, hoping to support a Eurozone economy that is being squeezed increasingly hard by the U.S.'s trade war with China, and by the risk of a disruptive Brexit.

The bank left its key deposit rate at -0.4% and its refinancing rate at 0%.

Eurozone CPI data ticked higher. On the other hand, last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Recent UK Services PMI beat expectations.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We confirm we are Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s largest economies.

We are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

Last month the ECB all but promised more stimulus in the coming months, putting a rate cut and more bond buys firmly on the table as the growth outlook deteriorates amid spreading uncertainty and a manufacturing recession.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Recent UK Services PMI beat expectations.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We confirm Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

Last month the ECB all but promised more stimulus in the coming months, putting a rate cut and more bond buys firmly on the table as the growth outlook deteriorates amid spreading uncertainty and a manufacturing recession.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK GDP data.

Recent UK Services PMI beat expectations.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We confirm Oversold from Bearish. First target: 1.2214, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another jump back to 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: GDP data

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

Last month the ECB all but promised more stimulus in the coming months, putting a rate cut and more bond buys firmly on the table as the growth outlook deteriorates amid spreading uncertainty and a manufacturing recession.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

Recent UK Services PMI beat expectations.

The British pound tumbled as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

We are Bearish from Oversold. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another possible test down to 1.193 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Slumping exports sent Germany’s economy into reverse in the second quarter, while Chinese industrial output growth cooled to a more than 17-year low in July, underscoring the impact of a bruising U.S.-China trade war on global growth.

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Foreign exchange markets and British gamblers share an increasingly similar view on the prospect for a no-deal Brexit, with the relationship between the two notably close since Boris Johnson became prime minister.

The pound has tumbled 4% to nearly 93 pence per euro from 89 pence in late July when Johnson came into office and investors scrambled to price in his pledge to take Britain out of the European Union at the end of October with or without a withdrawal deal.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Bearish from Oversold. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another possible test down to 1.193 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Foreign exchange markets and British gamblers share an increasingly similar view on the prospect for a no-deal Brexit, with the relationship between the two notably close since Boris Johnson became prime minister.

The pound has tumbled 4% to nearly 93 pence per euro from 89 pence in late July when Johnson came into office and investors scrambled to price in his pledge to take Britain out of the European Union at the end of October with or without a withdrawal deal.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Bearish from Oversold. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another possible test down to 1.193 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly. Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery. However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Bearish from Oversold. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another possible test down to 1.193 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Fed FOMC Meeting.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Trade tensions are high and the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains, pointing to weaker euro zone growth in the second and third quarters, the ECB said, which is largely consistent with its policy statement after the July interest rate meeting.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing confirming a downtrend. In the EU, last Eurozone CPI and GDP data contrasted. Last German Unemployment better than expected.
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data again on the downbeat.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Fed FOMC Meeting.

UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly. Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery. However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Bearish from Oversold. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before another possible test down to 1.193 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting but was anything but unanimous on how to respond to slowing growth in the U.S. economy, with most policymakers favoring keeping rates unchanged. They were however united in wanting to signal they were not on a preset path to more cuts, a message not likely to sit well with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Last German Manufacturing PMI data came better than expected.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

22nd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly. Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery. However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Neutral from Bearish. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before a possible bouncing over 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Ears out to today U.S. Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting but was anything but unanimous on how to respond to slowing growth in the U.S. economy, with most policymakers favoring keeping rates unchanged. They were however united in wanting to signal they were not on a preset path to more cuts, a message not likely to sit well with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Last German Manufacturing PMI data came better than expected.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1268
2nd Resistance: 1.1370
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098

EUR

Recent Facts:

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected

3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected

5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected

21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows

22nd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat

1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate

3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected

10th of May, CPI
As Expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall

5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected

7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)

25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected

27th of June, GDP data
As Expected

5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up

11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected

16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected

24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected

26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected

31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Ears out to today U.S. Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.

UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly. Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery. However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

Recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data worse than expected, confirming a bad moment for UK economy.

We are Neutral from Bearish. First target: 1.20 Area, then we expect a consolidation around that level before a possible bouncing over 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected

22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected

2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)

3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected

16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales data came better than expected. Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.

Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6988
2nd Resistance: 0.7044
1st Support: 0.6801
2nd Support: 0.6710

AUD

Recent Facts:

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)

13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected

4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%

5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected

13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.