FX Analysis by SGT Markets

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1029
2nd Resistance: 1.1115
3rd Resistance: 1.1171
1st Support: 1.0995
2nd Support: 1.0950

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

TRADING IDEA (sell on retest in area 1.10 – 1.1029)


GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
3rd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7420

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0995
2nd Resistance: 1.1029
3rd Resistance: 1.1115
1st Support: 1.0950
2nd Support: 1.0904

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Building Permits

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Building Permits

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
3rd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7420

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Building Permits

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0995
2nd Resistance: 1.1029
3rd Resistance: 1.1115
1st Support: 1.0950
2nd Support: 1.0904

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
3rd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0950
2nd Resistance: 1.0995
3rd Resistance: 1.1029
1st Support: 1.0904
2nd Support: 1.0840

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
3rd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0950
2nd Resistance: 1.0995
3rd Resistance: 1.1029
1st Support: 1.0870
2nd Support: 1.0840

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: ECB President Mario Draghi Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Bank of England Gov Carney Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0950
2nd Resistance: 1.0995
3rd Resistance: 1.1029
1st Support: 1.0870
2nd Support: 1.0840

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: New Home Sales

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: New Home Sales

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: New Home Sales

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0950
2nd Resistance: 1.0995
3rd Resistance: 1.1029
1st Support: 1.0870
2nd Support: 1.0840

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

Eyes on today release: GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders


AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.0995
2nd Resistance: 1.1029
3rd Resistance: 1.1115
1st Support: 1.0950
2nd Support: 1.0870

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI
Confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Forex Analysis: EUR/USD


Weekly Trend:Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.0995
2nd Resistance: 1.1029
3rd Resistance: 1.1115
1st Support: 1.0950
2nd Support: 1.0870

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI
Confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment

Forex Analysis: GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment


Forex Analysis: AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1115
2nd Resistance: 1.1171
1st Support: 1.1029
2nd Support: 1.0995

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI
Confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1115
2nd Resistance: 1.1171
1st Support: 1.1029
2nd Support: 1.0995

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

18th of August, European CPI
Confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2430
2nd Resistance: 1.2581
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1171
2nd Resistance: 1.1241
1st Support: 1.0995
2nd Support: 1.0950

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2581
2nd Resistance: 1.2680
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

Eyes on today release: ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1241
2nd Resistance: 1.1303
1st Support: 1.1115
2nd Support: 1.1060

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2581
2nd Resistance: 1.2680
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

Eyes on today release: Trade Balance

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

Eyes on today release: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0995
2nd Resistance: 1.1060
1st Support: 1.0950
2nd Support: 1.0870

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2581
2nd Resistance: 1.2680
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0840
2nd Resistance: 1.0870
1st Support: 1.0750
2nd Support: 1.0679

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

Eyes on today release: Industrial Production + ECB President Draghi Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected


GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2680
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected


AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

EUR/USD



Weekly Trend: Oversold

1st Resistance: 1.0840
2nd Resistance: 1.0870
1st Support: 1.0750
2nd Support: 1.0679

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2680
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0750
2nd Resistance: 1.0840
1st Support: 1.0713
2nd Support: 1.0679

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)


GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2680
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0713
1st Support: 1.0614
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7440
2nd Resistance: 0.7525
1st Support: 0.7365
2nd Support: 0.7201


AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0713
1st Support: 1.0614
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7440
2nd Resistance: 0.7525
1st Support: 0.7365
2nd Support: 0.7201

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0713
1st Support: 1.0614
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

Eyes on today release: German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting

GBP/USD


Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD


Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7440
2nd Resistance: 0.7525
1st Support: 0.7365
2nd Support: 0.7201

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.