Hi there, it has been a very hectic 48 hours for me. I couldn’t post my analysis quick enough due to other life activities outside trading and the market was just too quick …
So now that I am “free rolling” in my Live Trade #3 (GBP/JPY LONG) I have a breather to explain and show my analyses related to this two live trades.
LIVE TRADE #2:
Bought AUD/USD @ 0.7629 on a convergence at the Inner Up Trend Line + 61.8 Fibonacci + Engulfing Candle formation on the 2h chart (as posted).
GSLO @ 0.7599 With our TP1 @0.7689 and an Open TP2
Comment:
When I entered this trade I didn’t know that the AUD was in the process of forming a Triangle Pattern.
I will be honest, I stay away from this type of formations because I wanted to always focus on Trend Trading. I believe in “less is more” and “quality rather than quantity” approach, hence I prefer to catch those big waves to surf them for longer… Anyway, having said that, I found myself needing to re-visit my book on these patterns simply to “avoid going against them”.
Now, with the AUD, I noticed that it went range-bound after the long entry so I decided to lighten my position in what it appeared to be a Descending Triangle (bearish), but as I said, I am not verse on range trading, so i rather be safe than sorry.
My mistake however was to half my position @ 0.7616 (-13 pips) at the bottom of the triangle. The next 2h candle saw it rise to the top of the triangle range at which time I closed the second half @ 0.7652 (+23)
Overall Result was a +5 pips (-13 + 23 all divided by 2 = +5) but I have to say it should’ve been a +23 pips had I spent more time analysing the market. Having said that, I take the break even over a loss any time. I rather be out of the market if I have loss confidence in my analysis than keep watching the market because I have doubts…
One of my mantras is “If in doubt, stay out”
LIVE TRADE #3: GBP/JPY LONG
Bought @ 140.55 GSLO1 @ 139.75 TP @142.82
We entered this position on 9/2/17 @18:15 (AUS ADELAIDE TIME) after the market had formed a morning star at the 38.2 Fibonacci which got confirmed on a break out above the last high @140.67 area.
I usually don’t trade the 382. Based on my past studies, I found that I have a much higher success rate if only trade the 618 and 786 fibonacci. Having said that, on the 8/2/17 at 2:30 (AUS TIME) the market had formed a very nice Hammer + Engulfing on the H4 and H2 respectively (actually on the H4 there also was an engulfing candle confirming the hammer) at the 786 of the larger swing. I had MISSED this entry! I was short prior to this (LT#1) and because it happened at 2:30am I was …sleeping…
What I am saying is that this was an Exit / Reverse situation. I missed going LONG. Therefore, knowing that the market had:
- Broken the down trend line
- Formed hammer + engulfing at 786 of previous larger swing
- Has started an up trend
now it was a good time to enter at 382 break out… 
SUMMARY of LT#3:
CURRENT GSLO2 @ BREAK EVEN 140.56
WE ARE NOW FREE ROLLING…
I have had as much fun this week as I wanted, and considering that we are now at the end of the week, I have always given priority to “finish the week up rather than risking on losing my week profits on the last day…” type of psychic. I found it to be a good “Mental Boost”…
Furthermore, given that the AUD is range bound and we are now trailing towards our TP1 it is quite likely that I won’t enter a trade UNLESS the GBP/JPY forms a Shooting Start or Evening Star or a “clear” Engulfing candle at the 786 (142.92) area (as shown, which by the way, our TP is just under it). ONLY then, I might SHORT the GBP/JPY on the last day of the week…
If you take the time to analyse the H2 and H4 charts for the GBP/JPY from 1st february onwards you will noticed that the GBP has been bouncing nicely off the 786s…
1/2/17 2:30 hammers on the h2 and h4 @786
2/2/17 2:30 hammer on the h2 @ 786
8/2/17 2:30 hammer/eng on the h4 @786
say no more…
happy trading…
fxpirana
I am now about to update the current status of my Live Trade 
