Garu's journal

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 11:17am

Here is my trade 6 GBPUSD, a buy.

I have waited for a clear candle sign that this trade will really go up. I’m thinking with this candle setup (looking at 4H time frame), is really serious for an uptrend.

Looking at the 4H time frame, prices went down twice, so the second rise is (I guess) a sign of uptrend.

Here is how the charts look like in the weekly time frame:

EDIT:
I might even raise the TP above the next resistance as soon as I have enough pips, maybe around 80+ pips?

EDIT:
update, 09 January 2013, 1pm: I should have waited for the prices to retrace back (this was my original plan, but was so afraid that prices will already shoot up! Now the chart looks like this:

If I entered at this stage, my stop loss will be a lot lower, and I have a greater possibility of taking in more pips!

EDIT:
update, 11 January 2013, 4:20pm: I have moved the Take Profit / Stop Loss to 183/66 pips, from a previous 104/99 pips to minimize losses.

EDIT:
update, 14 January 2013, 11:30pm: Last weekends I was contemplating on closing this trade since it was already up 40+ pips. But, I decided not to close it hoping it will still rise. I think I made a mistake, now the trade is down to -36pips.

I was supposed to attach a picture, but it seems attaching more than 5 is not allowed.

So lesson learned, if weekends is coming, and the trend doesn’t look good (or if trade is against the trend), better close it if I’ve earned considerable amount of pips.

EDIT:
16 January 2013, 4pm: this trade met a stop loss at -66pips. It gave me -0.6% of my funds. The mistake I did with this trade is that I didn’t reduce the % risk I put in. The trade was not on a trend, so next time I go in a trade, I need to adjust the % risk I put in.

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 11:26am

I’m also looking at shorting USDCHF but I will wait for prices to retrace back a bit?
From experience, that sudden drop will do a bit of a retracement back. I’ll enter the trade after then.

Here is how the 4H time frame looks like:

EDIT:
08 January 2013, 12pm: the chart for this one did not retrace, it continued moving downwards! I thought I will see some retracement before the downward movement. Now I’m still thinking whether I will go for this trade or not.

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 11:37am

This trade got hit by the 80 pip trailing stop.

It earned me 2.2% of my funds!! whoohoo!! although too bad it did not reach 330 pips

Now my fund is up to -3.76% from a previous low of -5.95%.

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 12:00pm

Here is my trade 7, a buy on EURCAD. Stochastics are good, candles are good, daily trend is upwards.

Here is how the daily time frame looks like:

Here is how the 4H time frame looks like:

Hopefully the TP will hit!

EDIT:
10 January 2013, 11pm: This trade hit its Take Profit! 105 pips! whoohoo!! too bad, I was supposed to increase the take profit, but I was away, so it hit its take profit.

I want to get back into the trade again to continue the trend, but I’m afraid to go in, since I could not find a resistance/support to set my stop loss. So I decided not to go in.

This trade gave 1% to my funds.

mwscircle · January 7, 2013, 2:31pm

Garuh,

Best of luck. Your GBP/USD it taking off now. Are you going to be doing a trailing on that too?

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 11:42pm

Thanks mwscircle! I’m planning to, as soon as it reaches 80+pips (or even 60+ pips). In that case, if there will be small retracements, the trade won’t be closed --> assuming prices goes along my way

EDIT: oh as of now, it’s just 26pips, so I won’t yet be putting a trailing stop.

garuhhh · January 7, 2013, 11:48pm

Here is a buy on GBPAUD, I’m hoping I went in in the proper time. charts, trend and stochastics looks good to me.

Here is how the 1d time frame looks like:

Here is how the 4H movement looks like. It gives me a bit of confidence to see that small retracement back before proceeding upwards. I see it as more confirmation that the price will move upwards.

I’m seeing almost the same chart with GBPCAD, but I’m not really comfortable going for the same currency on two trades, especially if the charts are similar. IF something bad happens to GBP, both trades will go against me! (is that a good idea?)

EDIT:
I didn’t notice I also have GBPCHF, and GBPUSD! hahaha… but their charts looks so different with GBPCAD! and GBPCAD looks very similar with this trade (GBPAUD), it reminds me so much of this trade, so I decided not to go for that trade. I hope I’m doing the right decision.

EDIT:
09 January 2013, 8am: this trade met a stop loss, -111 pips on my account. it made a -1.11% on my account
now my funds are -4.87%

ClarkFX · January 8, 2013, 2:32am

I’ve noticed you take signals from many EUR, GBP and CHF crosses. I would just like to add that you should analyse the correlation between them all or you may risk overexposure. Since taking a trade in two high positively correlated trades in two pairs is essentially doubling your risk. The same goes for hedging two high negatively correlated pairs.

garuhhh · January 8, 2013, 2:40am

Thanks for dropping by ClarkFX!

Can you provide reading materials for these correlation(edit: a link maybe?)? I don’t know what are positively correlated trades
and the same goes for hedging two negatively correlated pairs --> I’m not aware. I think those are topics I need to learn as soon as possible… is it easy to explain here? Thank you ClarkFX!

I’m at work now, but I’ll try to research more about those topics.

My currently open trades are the following:

GBPCHF at 45pips (target 134 pips)
EURGBP at 26pips (target 57 pips)
GBPUSD at 2 pips (target 104 pips)
EURCAD at 35 pips (target 105 pips)
GBPAUD at -16 pips (target 155 pips)

which one should I most likely close?

ClarkFX · January 8, 2013, 2:47am

The School of Pipsology offers a wonderful section on currency correlations that will give you the basics of this essential concept, especially for multi-asset (currency) portfolios:

School of Pipsology Currency Correlations

After reading these short pages, I think you will have a good idea about it. There are several correlation charts online for various timeframes and currencies. I’d definitely consider taking some time to integrate it into your current trading style so you are better able to manage your exposure/risk.

Clark

garuhhh · January 8, 2013, 3:15am

Thank you so much Clark! I’ll really read into these tonight.

garuhhh · January 10, 2013, 10:41am

There was a sudden rise in prices, and my two trades hit their take profit!

trade 5 EURGBP, at 57 pips!
trade 7 EURCAD, at 105 pips!

Now my funds is now [B]up[/B] to[B] -2.77% [/B]from a -3.8%!

garuhhh · January 11, 2013, 12:53pm

my trade 4 GBPCHF hit its target profit at 186 pips!!
This trade gave me 1.8% of my funds.

happy weekends everyone!

mwscircle · January 11, 2013, 2:16pm

Congrats bud, I had my doubts last night about the market going up again but it did… another 100 or so pips. Your back to -.97% not bad. Market is closing in the next hour or so, best of luck next week!

garuhhh · January 12, 2013, 12:59am

Thanks mwscircle! yep I think I would consider this past 3 weeks my best trading time! I started with -9.97% (due to trying strategies i’m not familiar with), now I’m up to almost -1%.

I hope I can get past negative funds within this month.

garuhhh · January 13, 2013, 8:56pm

Here is my trade 9, buy on GBPAUD. Last time I entered this trade, but got stopped. I’m entering again with fresh hope. Stochastics are showing uptrend as well as candles.

I’m just risking 1% here since it seems I’m going against the weekly trend (yellow line).

here is the weekly chart showing the weekly trend (yellow line):

EDIT:
update, 14 January 2013, 11:30pm: this trade is now down to -120pips. The prices unbelievable moved against me! hopefully this trade doesn’t get stopped.

EDIT:
16 January 2013, 10pm: this trade met a stop loss at -167 pips. It gave me -0.44% of funds.

Good thing this trade was done with only 1% of my funds, so it did not do much damage. So I guess trading a pair that is against the weekly trend (or any higher time frame than the entry time frame) should really be done with reduced % of funds.

garuhhh · January 14, 2013, 10:24am

Here is my trade 10 for January 2013: a sell on EURNZD. since this seems to be following the trend, I’ll go for a 3% risk on this one.

Here is the daily time frame chart:

Here is the 4H time frame:

fingers crossed…

EDIT:
18 January 2013: this trade met a stop loss at -106pips. This trade gave me a -0.93% of my funds.
My mistake with this trade was that I was so fixated on the weekly trend, I didn’t even bother to notice the resistance levels. So I need to be more careful next time. Before going into the trade, be sure that the stop loss is behind a very strong resistance, or don’t even try to go in the trade.

nisar · January 14, 2013, 11:42am

this pair is very volatile. we had a very strong bullish candles for the couple of days.we had a little pull back and looks like we will get a high wave candle at the end of day and if look to the left of ur chart, it seems there is a strong support. well u are in trade and hopefully u will get ur desirable results. good luck.

garuhhh · January 15, 2013, 3:00am

Here is trade 11, a buy on EURUSD. I’m going against the weekly trend, so I’m risking only 1%. Besides, this currency pair has 0.94 correlation with GBPUSD which I have a long position as of the moment. But looking at their chart, they are in no way similar at this time frame (4H, 1D).

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EDIT:

16 January 2013, 2am: this trade hit its take profit at 75 pips! I was supposed to move it down further to around 200+pips, but it hit when I was sleeping

This trade gave me 0.26% of my funds

I’m planning to enter the trade again at 1% risk below the resistance (entry in white line).

garuhhh · January 16, 2013, 8:33am

update:

my trade 11 EURUSD hit its take profit at 75 pips.
my trade 6 GBPUSD hit its stop loss at 61pips.
my trade 9 GBPAUD hit its stop loss at 167pips.

I now have a total of [B]-1.74% [/B]from a previous funds of -0.30%