fantastic analysis!..took me 15minutes to get through it…flicking between my charts…then drew my lines scratched my head and then went wham! there it was…thanks
It would’ve been a good short (bad night to fall asleep and stay asleep!) after closing below fib support on the 0200 candle: an entry there at 207.11 would still have yielded over 100 pips. C’est la vie.
Sorry about the length there - drawing it up on a chart for yourself is a very good idea, but that takes persistence! Next time, I’ll make it illustrated, though.
If you see any H&S forming, let us know! 
Morning all!!! I had a feeling she was gonna fall last night. I just couldn’t bring myself to short her though out of respect for RRRAM. So I shorted GC. 
It’s always a good feeling to wake up to orders that hit their TP while you were asleep. I have a loss leader in way high at 215.70 but only cause I have that feeling “if I’m not in the market somehow…I’m not doing something right.” Dumb, I know, but it makes me feel better. I bought my next order at 213.80. I’ll sit out for a bit and see where she goes before I decide how far to scale down for the next one.
OH! As far as trailing stop loss’s go… I don’t know if anybody ever kept up with OZ’s thread but there was one guy (NETWISE) that modified it for the 4hr/30 min time frame. He found that with GJ a 65 pip trailing stop seemed to work best instead of a 50. I just can’t seem to stomach the idea of giving back 50-65 pips though. I would rather take lots of little orders with TP’s.
of course your friends:) you two are want make this thread the liveliest and best thread around…your polar opposites but the same in your love of trading and the guppy…Both your analysis are fantastic, and come from complete different thought processes but often result in the same predictions…it is fantastic to see… read…
so hey alls fair in love and war…and any one following the strategy know the risk cause they would of read the thread…and it is clearly stated in post 1.
keep up the good work…go guppy go…and yeah i think you were talking about me andrew…but whatever, you would be right there…i am learning and i do enjoy it. so
Well im signing off tonight cause im off on my holidays for 3 weeks to jakarta and bali in indonesia in the mornin, so good pippin…where will she be in 3 weeks…in the 220’s…mmmmm
i’m only guessing…where will she be in by jan 09…250…
Nah - if I thought someone in particular was setting themselves to self-destruct, I’d probably trying to engage them in a discussion about it. Traders have to take responsibility for their own decisions (the market will keep them accountable, if no one else), but I, for one, hate to see anyone fail, or lose. I didn’t have you in mind - in fact, I’d say you’re a very proactive student of the market.
Have a great vacation!
>>>Stands and applauds<<<
Outstanding! And those things take time to write so I appreciate the effort.
I learned that you measure H&S from the close, not from the highs or lows as I had been doing.
Also did not know the head could only be a few pips higher than the shoulder.
And there needs to be a trough between shoulder & head to determine where the trendline goes?
This is a (for me) very not obvious H&S pattern, I would never have spotted it, but in retrospect there it was & the message was clear … could have made me some pips last night instead of ending up losing some. 
Which are the2 points for your fib fan? Is it that hammer candle at 4am on July 21? And the high is the 8am candle yesterday? And do you measure from low to high or from closes to opens (or opens to closes)?
According to rrram’s analysis I now have TMTH … story of my life.
I just wanted to make sure it wasn’t a pot shot directed at me
My wife does this to me sometimes. So I tend to have pot shot radar.
It is I that am very critical and even judgemental.
MY cowboy calls ON GJ are from years of watching her and studying her moves. I am still very much influenced by the charts. There was no way 216 was going to hold or even get pierced. That was nothing to support that price. The bottom is literally falling out in GB, but things arent so peachy in Japan either.
There is no such thing as a sure thing. BUt I can tell you when UJ doesnt rise significantly and GU doesnt rise significantly, it makes no sense to me how GJ can rise. s the way I understand it GJ is literally,
U/J X G/U which to me means if GJ is going to go up, U/J has to go up with it or before it OR GU has to go up with it or before it.
It is interesting to note that on 3/17 the GJ low, that GU was coming off its highs if I recall right around 204/5 or there abouts.
I guess if I am going to start making predictions I need to post my charts/data to support it. And or start putting some money behind it.
I am eyeing NZD/USD, if that thing hits .74 that is a strong buy for me.
The USD is still in dire straits, but it will be coming back. You can bet your britches that gold will sink going into thansgiving. The key to sucessful trading is mostly psychological. “Let EVERY man (or woman) be fully persuaded in thier own mind”.
No hard feelings Andrew, you are my favorite trader here! A brother is born for adversity. And you help me more than you know. Priorities in my life that are highest are my spiritual pursuits. Without brothers it would be hard for me to continue to improve. Andrew you are a living example for me, and I am carefully identifying your positive attributes and mimicing them or at least trying :). I have much to learn from you, not just related to your experience trading, but from the way you treat others. And this is what impresses me the most about you.
When one attains your elevated level of trading, it is a selfless act for you to come here and share of your time and expertise with others. And the hardest thing for me is to take the time and teach and be very patient with those newbie traders sometimes. Often I erroneously assume everyone knows what I know :). And it is hard to be humble. And you are a fine example of humility for me thus far. I hold humility the highest.
Humility is the attribute of Keter (the crown). Our God is Humble.
Can you imagine how hard it would be to be humble if you had the power that God had? When you are the most high, how do you consider the most low who needs your attention the most?
The charts are looking like 214.00 is a good place to get one, but careful to avoid TMTH. It looks like a move back up to maybe 215.00 is in order,
but after that I recon we will fall as far as the next fib step down
212.42.
I heavily rely on candlestick patterns because they tell when moment by moment what price is doing and I see the movememnt and the changes in direction. I heavily rely on Fibs and psychological price. And of course the SMA’s but mostly because thats what people in the club look at and use.
Trading is like chess all you have to do is outsmart the other guy who is taking the other side of the trade. When it is a big boy (Big Bank),
this should be easy with a littel practice, as bankers often are not that bright
or they wouldnt be bankers. Yes I can say this! I am a banker. But I really AM bright.
I added some ezine articles, to my list about banks one of them IS.
Happy to be of service, however modest. 
With H&S (remember there are also inverted H&S, which are bullish), the neckline is the trigger point. The second trough (so, between the head and the right shoulder) should produce the same or a LL compared to the first trough. Connecting these produces a trendline, either horizontal or descending. That line should extend off to the right to signal any future break. IF price wanders up and away, moving above the height of the right shoulder and the head, then the pattern is definitely blown. But if price closes below the neckline, consider the throat cut, head decapitated (sorry for the macabre description, but then this does mean El Toreador is killing the bull). The H&S is a confirmed pattern at that point and has a pretty high probability of move significantly south.
This particular H&S is apparent on the 1H, but anything closer (30M on down) is too noisy - though the 30M does look double-toppish, and actually could’ve passed for a descending triangle there, with LHs @ @ 1630 and 0030 ET and horizontal support @ 215.25.
Which one is it? Well, It doesn’t matter: all of them broke around 215.20-215.25 and plummeted.
For drawing fans, I typically draw using highs and lows because they produce ledges and stopping/reversal points more often and more reliably than those drawn with closes. I don’t have any statistical basis for that; just experience.
Jeb has an a-b-c corrective wave scheduled, the a has been hit, b is 215.44 and c is 211.92. I think Elijah’s numbers are more accurate, but they are saying the same thing, a bounce up from here then a deeper retracement.
If we get back to 215, I can close all my longs in profit & await her pleasure on the next leg down where I will try to have more patience with entries. 
But how do you know where to start? On the hourly there are several prior swing lows …2300 July 21, 0400, July 21, 0300 July 18 and the big one from July 16 low. How do you determine which one to use or can you draw several and they each add information?
If I had 10 or 20G in my account maybe I would have taken a LL up there and scaled down for the next one at 215 then 214 and would probably been in deep by the time she hit 213.79 or thereabouts.
I do spend countless hours looking at charts. I do not review anyone elses analysis, I do my own. Even if it is a quick mental check of what GJ is up to.
Much of what I do at this point does proceed from emotion, but it has proved
to work very well.
I draw trend lines from daily on down. I use fibs. SMA’s and candles.
Only indicators I regularly use is fast stochastics, macd, rsi, but dont take trades off that.
I trade differently than most obviously. I am much like you often I need double or triple confirmation of price direction before entering or before deciding how far to space my orders. I have used the ultimate O,
and MOM I used to watch closely. But momentum breakouts are not my main area to make pips.
And You and fxstar have helped me ID my weaknesses. Once I learn patience
and can learn HOW to hold my trades longer then my account will really explode. But right now I am just playing and am far too conservative.
But these are troubled times. I have 2 renters that are way late. Ive got notes ( I own) that people arent paying on. I guess I am going to have to sue this lady to make an example out of her. It really isnt worth my time for $600. But my dad told me to make an example out of her, so that is what I was thinking too. The thing is she is either stupid, or she thinks her mumbo jumbo is going to scare me off. I can tell you one thing for sure.
I fear nothing. For God has not given the spirit of fear but of power and of love and of a sound mind.
Anyone see what I have done to get here? Where I am now?
“thy word have I hid in mine heart that I might not sin against thee” <- clue
I cannot tell you in a short way what this does and how it will change your life for the better. But I can assure everyone here that the key to a joyful happy life is making Gods word your own. When you speak you speak his word, when you think you think his word, you make his word part of your thoughts, you interanlize his word and make it your own. It is his word that sustains the world. So when you read my posts. Think about what I am saying, I do not run to my bible and look stuff up. The word of God dwells abundantly and richly in my mind on a daily and moment by moment basis.
It is what makes me, me. And we all know light dispels darkness. No one wants to be in darkness. Speaking, thinking and living the word will absolutely dispel darkness in your life.
And in case anyone is wondering, I have not expressed this before.
I do not care what anyone else thinks about me in a negative way really. That is actually thier problem (their thoughts). So for all those
strongly opinionated religous type people and the anti-religous folks as well,
they do not affect me with their negative thoughts. So I do not care one bit if someone thinks less of me because of my alignment with the creator. If they do that is their error. I know what causes the Sun to rise everyday.
The righteous sustain the world. We all know there was only ONE righteous.
And it is through HIS actions that HE became righteous, and it is through HIS righteousness that I am able to obtain righteousness. HIS righteousness is MINE as I have claimed it.
As a cross the Guppy can trade on its own without respect to Cable or the Yen, but you’re definitely on to something: significant deviation from one of these pairs in whatever direction can have a rubberband effect. If an errant Guppy wanders too far up or down stream, it will often come back very quickly when its parents start calling.
And don’t worry - by now, we have what looks like a little tiff every few weeks or so, but is actually nothing - just some temporary dissonance because we pursue the same goal in different ways.
About humility, we’re perfectly aligned. There’s no argument: I’m very egotistical at times, i.e. ruled by pride. Many traders are, as well - successful or not - and even think that maniacal egotism is a psychological advantage. Nothing is further from the truth. This can be debated on philosophical grounds, but at the end of the day humility is, really, the impetus for everything that we consider good; and yes, this is highly relevant to the psychological makeup of the trader.
I’m actually thinking of writing an article (maybe even a book that would fit into the trading psychology sub-genre) about trading ascetically. The central thesis is that self-examination, criticism and constructive interior work is vital not only success, but also well-being as a trader. This is largely inspired by a quote from St. Isaac the Syrian, a 6th c. Christian ascetic: “The one who sees his sin is greater than the one who raises the dead to life”. Humility is a recognition of the way things really are, free of hubris; but paradoxically, humility is power. It is also difficult to obtain, because you cannot do it unless you truly abase yourself. Not typical of worldly-wise thinking; but then our history is punctuated throughout by raping, pillaging, killing, war, conquest. How humility has the power to prevail over all of that is one implication of Christ’s incarnation, crucifixion and resurrection, which is where St. Isaac draws his inspiration for that observation.
Anyway, humility before the market is very important; and humility before others, by extension. Pulling aside the curtain that is your own pride and fear as a trader is a great struggle, and is close to or at the bottom of why so many do not succeed, I think.
As for me, I’m glad to be here and contributing to the discussion, whatever my level of experience.
wow, 200 pages. Just had to say it. And now I’m signing off to have breakfast.
She is looking like she may run for the next fib down before she rises back to 215. 213.50 may provide some ST support.
But mark my words GJ is very angry
this is where we make a killing. Enter your orders going down into 212.42.
from here I would get one long or another one long.
I’ve got 25 NJ at 5.91% so I am out for now GJ.
I am buying NJ all the way down. 100 pips even further than it bottomed at already.
I am also looking for the bottom on NU, I dont think it can fall below .74 and expect another run up back into .76 or .77 despite the rate cut to 8% yesterday.
I’ve got a call today at a kidney Dialysis center, that should be fun.
I bailed on the make up machine! I am not going to service that!
[B]“Problems are only opportunities dressed in work clothes.”[/B]
Henry Kaiser
[B]“Concentrate all your thoughts upon the work at hand. The sun’s rays do not burn until brought to a focus.”[/B]
Alexander Graham Bell
I had to preserve these in the post.
I have written a book before but never published it.
Let me know if you need a coauthor- or proofreader or editor.
When I used to sell cars they called me ‘spot’. Whn A new car came in they were amazed that I could look at it from across the parking lot and spot its defects. Give me some time to respond to Andrews last post as it is very enlightening and I couldnt agree more with what he has said, and I have some comments I will deliver in a short bit.
I think GJ is now in a range where it is safe to enter the market. For those long at the high, 215.80 or something, be paitent she will be back.
FXstar just like I said about those 213.80’s you had a few of, hopefully you sold those by now
It really doesnt matter where you get your loss leader but obviously the lwoer the better.
And also like haught said, sopmetimes it is omportant to get in, even if up high with a LL so you are in and have a financial interest in the price movemment of GJ.
GJ often follows technicals, but often she really does disregard them.
And obviously with my strategy I dont have to be rightat all with my analysis
AND I will still make pips.
Andrew probably does better than I do pip wise. But I am so focused on maintaining a 99% profit ratio no matter how long I have to collect interest.
And NJ will come back. If it doesn’t I will wait. Its not like the $1200 in my account is very much and would have a big effect on my life if I had it in my pocket. I need so much more to live. It is sad how things expand.
I used to be able to live on $2000 a month for my family. Now I am closer to needing $10000 a month. My point here is it doesnt matter how much you make, your life will expand to spend any and all income you make.
Life is not about money and those that focus on it as their god, will go down in flames. Money represents the light of the creator. It is the things money can do that gives it merit. But useing it in a selfish greedy way is very foolhearty.
Strong buy GJ at 213.50going down maybe 20-30 pips on the next couple heading down into 212.42. If we break 212.42 carefully space them after a break of that, maybe next one at 40 -50.
This is going to be a wild day. Those with orders on the books will bank pips.
If we break below the 34SMA we could be heading down swiftly after that into the next fib down around 212.42.
34 is a huge SMA
I have no experience with this, GJ trailing stops, but would think 65 is probably better than 50. But I for one would prefer to bank 65 pips and get in long again and give up another spread and bak those pips.
the 4H doesnt look to have truend up yet. But the 2 hour is looking very bottomy. Good place to get one but not too many.
As this may be a false bottom and the bottom may fall out to 212.42.
I am sure I told everyone last night to be expecting a retrace to 212.40
true we may not get below 212.50ish. But I said that so peoplehere would proceed with caution and NOT get TMTH. When you feel the need to get more so closely spaced, it is best to walk away!