thanks GUPPYARIANS. Much appreciated:)
Usually thatās right, but daylight saving time will change Eastern to GMT-4, or EDT. During EST, GMT-5 is correct. That may not account for what goes on in MT4, though!
No ā¦ MT4 has its own time zone 
I think if you use Alpari MT4, they have the correct time relative to GMT
Referring to the 1600-2000ET 07/22 on G/C: this could be subjective, but I wouldnāt consider that a flag. The lead-up looks like a pole, without doubt, and price from 1300 to 1700 looks flaggish; but the NY session ends, price drifts out of the descending channel (the flag), and doesnāt break until London. Consider it a āflag, interruptedā. I would like to think I wouldāve recognized the pole and beginning of the flag and then just waited for London to find the upside momentum for the breakout, confident the continuation pattern would emerge with a second leg up; but thatās probably giving myself too much credit.
Scenario: Price goes up, creating a pole over 8 candles. The pole stalls, and a flag begins to emerge. The flag moves down in this example - as a general rule, the move in the opposite direction of the pole. Flags are, by definition, parallel channels. Think of it as a lull in the action, or a pullback/consolidation. The flag concludes when price then breaks the parallel channel, moving up again, in the direction of the pole.
Hopefully that clarifies it a bit!
fib fan support @ 215.15 (thereās that level again) - weāll see whether Tokyo respects that line by dragging along it until Europe comes in.
The highs at 0800 ET and 1700 ET today look double-toppy, though; but perhaps notā¦ Thoughts on that, anyone?
4XStar thanks for the adviceāwhat the heck was I thinking!
Andrew I am always impressed with your analysis. What are your favorite tools and where would I find the best resources for researching them?
In theory, it could be a double top and at the moment she is batting against the W1 and R1 from the underside (she ignored both yesterday when she tore through them, but did close under this level for the day).
But ā¦ even though a retracement to at least 214.85 āshouldā take place, when I look at her all I see is a loaded spring that for the moment is being held down ā¦ but for how long?
News at 4:30 am ET could be a determining factor for the short term & since we have no idea what that will be, I think flat is still a great position
Well she made the retracement that I did not think she would make ā¦ so I am long again with some short term TP orders in place. If she continues to fall, I will be seriously ticked as I was pretty convinced that she had no intention of making a major retracement.
Patience, grasshopper (should be my mantraā¦)
The Swissy on the H1 did a great example of that flag thingy ā¦ forming the flag, then continuing upward in the direction of the flagpole.
The guppy has usual just did whatever she damn pleased :D:D
some bears are coming out of the woodsā¦
mmm might let them play for a bitā¦set same trapsā¦iām in no hurry todayā¦might even join inā¦disguise myself as a bear in a bear suitā¦easy to trap when you get closerā¦
4XStar, where do you see that coiled spring catapulting too?
216+ and could go far beyond that ā¦
However some damage has been done with the bad UK news at 0430 and possible bad US news later today may hold her down for awhile. I imagine everyone here is buying at intervals on the way down ā¦
I dont think it was the BOE. There was nothing in that that was sreaming good news for England. IN fact England is in tough shape actually.
So is it becuase things arenāt as bad as they thought? Doubt that but it tends to seem that way with brit stuff. Gold and oil have been down.
If you do some oil and gold correlations I will bet that GJ is opposite of those.
LIke I figured she couldnt support that 216 and is testing 214, but I didnt go short.
Again something doesnt compute, I thought UJ and GU were the same price they are now but GJ was almost 200 pips higher. There seems to be alot of divergence.
I am waiting on 5595.00 in p2p withdrawls so I am ok with the NJ running me down. I will hold NJ until the end of time.
I did some service at the Discovery Channel in Maryland yesterday.
THey have a very neat office or whatever that studio type place is.
Maybe someday I will think about getting a real job, but that is it.
I am searching for a new technican/apprentice so if anyone is interested,
it is DC area mostly.
Yawn! gotta get some coffee. I didnt have any GJ so I didnt get up with london so it was nice to sleep in.
I am not against shorting this pair. And looks Like I sould have.
Looks like I should have shorted GJ at 215.55 last night when it was clear she was breaking down. Was a good run down to the 100 old fib around 213.79.
but I still have a mental block denying access to shorting GJ :).
But GC is another matter, that is like a different girl. So it is OK.
Not like shorting GC is like cheating on GJ.
That would be the top on GC and I sure could have easily shorted that overnight for a well over 100 pips.
We can go round and round on this but I will not change. SMA for me is best.
And I use 21, 34, 55 fibinocci numbers. some folks use 50 but I find the real traders, the pros stick with 55, So not that the number is as significant,
as peoples reaction to it is, I want to be psychologically seeing what the big boys are seeing, if they are looking at 55 I want 55. And I find the 144 SMA
also a fib NUmber to be a good number.
But it is more the people trading GJās reaction to the MAās just like Tfās
I prefer to be at 12MIN 3 minutes ahead the 15, most big boys wont even look under 15M, heck most dont look below the 1H.
I trade against other traders and much of my studies are psychological,
and it is peoples reactions to things I play off of.
The double toppish look actually morphed into a head and shoulders! The last portion of my trade was stopped out @ 214.87 for +120. No stop and reverse, though, and I fell asleep pretty early last night.
[B]Anatomy of a Head and Shoulders Pattern[/B]
This pattern is probably familiar to some or most, but itās good to review to maintain some sensitivity because they are one of the more common patterns and can generate some handsome profits over a short period of time.
Going back to yesterday morning, a new closing high was established on the 0800 ET candle @ 215.66. Following that, a trough occurred to 215.30. 215.66 then is the left shoulder.
The rebound to a new, modestly higher close @ 215.74 occurred at 1700 ET. Even though the relief between the shoulder and head is relatively flat (8 pips) in this case, they are legitimate as labeled: so far, we have a very basic HH-HL-HH (higher high, higher low) 1-2-3 formation, vaguely resembling an āNā.
A trough then followed where price found support @ 215.15 on the 2300 ET candle (1H). This would be the trough between the head @ 1700 and the top of the subsequent shoulder @ ~215.50. Notice 215.15 comes up as a LL (lower low), while 215.50 emerges as a LH (lower high). This invalidates the 1-2-3 construction from earlier, because the HH-HL-HH pattern did not continue with more HHs and HLs. This signals the uptrend is faltering, but isnāt necessarily done. Whatever the case, it wasnāt the best - or even a good - place to go long, even with the strategy discussed in this thread.
With the LH @ 215.15, a tentative H&S pattern emerges; but still isnāt confirmed. A ānecklineā - a trendline - is drawn from the low between the first shoulder and head to the low between the second shoulder and head. The neckline extends off to the right. If price breaks and holds below that line, the H&S is confirmed, and a downside break (assuming volume is there) is probable.
Finishing this off then, price did drag up along fib fan support as we thought it might until the 0200 candle this morning. Frankfurt promptly blew that up, crossing below the neckline for the H&S @ 215.20 and stopping at the next fib fan rung down.
A short @ 0300 at the close of the 0200 candle below the neckline wouldāve been the tradeable opportunity here. London made a feeble attempt to bid the pair back up, and but only managed to close flat at the fib fan line; but then El Toreador came out for the coup de grace, dropping price to the daily trendline support on 0400ās candle @~213.90, where price has found support since.
Expect her to stay in this range between the fibs 213.79- 216.00.
I was reading back in some posts. I hope that wasnāt a pot shot on me
about not doing the analysis.
You want to call me a cow boy? no she didnt get to 212.40 like I said the 76.4% fib level, but she will, watch, oil is going to rise again today and gold and GJ will dip. But thats just my uneducated guess. BUt I am willing to again and as always put my money where my mouth is. I am going to be buying down into 212.50.
214.00 MAY be a good place to get a loss leader, but looking at the chart last night it WAS certaint to fall. But I am thinking even lower than 214.00
if you get one at 214.00 scale down at least 50 pips to 213.50 for the next one and at least another 30 to 213.20 after that.
At least I can post charts now. Sorry I have been busy.
yesterday we had a still born Alpaca, so yesterday was a bad day all around.
it was one of those days that started off bad and got worse.
Sometimes those days actually happen to me but not lately too much.
It is time to give up the high cost of low living.
Good luck today.
Note to Andrew: Gold and Oil are certain to regain today losses from yesterday if they have not altready regained all of yerterdays losses.
Thanks Jerry - one doesnāt have to look far for examples of me being wrong; but thatās all part of the game when analyzing intraday noise on one of, if not the most volatile pair in the market. The volatility on the Guppy is itās true allure, but that is a double-edge sword as we all know intimately. Because of the wide swings the pair consistently features, trading entry āhunchesā (otherwise known as a āpuntā or āgambleā) can be disastrous: it is always wise - on any pair, but nowhere more apparent than on GBP/JPY - to [I]confirm[/I] patterns and setups. Once that hurdle is gotten over, recognizing opportunities and having the wherewithal to act on them at the appropriate time is the real challenge; but a very rewarding one if worked at!
My workspace (i.e. what is open at all times on my trading platform) consists
of three charts.
One is an āindicatorā chart, on which I have RSI, ADX and then a rotating cast of characters: MACD, Williamsā Awesome Oscillator (AO) , %R, ATR. But, I only call those up when I want to refer to them on occasion, never to take trades from.
The second chart has Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) plotted on it, which youāve read some about if youāve worked through the pages in this thread.
The third and most important is the price action chart I often post images of: price, trendlines, support and resistance, a couple moving averages and line studies (mostly fibonacci). The other charts are used for reference when necessary (especially IKH), but are dispensable really. IKH is also a price action chart, only with a different visual representation compared to third chart, where more Western markers are used.
Beyond all the lines flying around on that price action chart, I use chart and candlestick patterns.
Babypips, as everyone will say, is the best place to begin, and thereās information about everything on the price action chart there. Beyond that, there are a lot of ebooks and free resources around the web to learn further about fibonacci, chart patterns, candlesticks: Bulkowski has great books on chart patterns, while Steve Nisonās books are still the best for learning about candlesticks; but then investopedia has a lot of similar material, as one example. None of this is complicated on a theoretical level, but profitable application can be difficult: thatās where thereās no substitute for experience. Read and re-reading over actual examples of priceās behavior with these constructions and then working with them yourself. If youāre interested in trading the Guppy, thereās actually a variety of viewpoints and angles on that in this thread, so do stick around! 
No need to be defensive, Elijah - that comment was intended for anyone (and Iām sure theyāre here) who is āalong for the rideā but doesnāt have analytical grounding in the pair. Method or no method, one should not just adhere to the idea of the Guppy always going up without some kind of critical justification for thinking that way; and even with this method, one should make it their business to be tactically smart about taking their positions: this is the old ālowā but not ālowerā discussion. And then thereās margin: someone is going to get blown to bits when the Guppy has a swift and severe downturn, assuming for whatever reason that wouldnāt or couldnāt happen. If that move had gone south rather than north (or the move from last week, moreso), anyone trading this way obliviously wouldāve been in for a rude awakening. I donāt know from day-to-day why you choose to go long where and when you do, but think itās safe to assume none of the above describes you.
Friends?