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2121

Good morning all,
I’m glad to see the thread has been restored to peace and to focus on the Guppy. :wink:

If you want to see where support lies with a more dynamic representation than a simple horizontal line, do this:

On the hourly chart: draw a fib fan from 208.02 (0600 ET candle on 07/16/2008) to 213.87 (the 0600 ET candle on 07/21/2008). Based off of that, what do you see since 0300 ET this morning?

Also: as mentioned on Friday, price was testing resistance established at the 78.6% fib retracement line (the most common fib level for reversals) @ ~214.88 for the range of 215.89-211.90 (this fib retracement study is also something worth drawing on your chart). After so many touches Friday and then yesterday, price fell off in early Europe: some nice pips there shorting the pair with a stop and reversal a bit above 214.88

Now I’m off to talk about “other” markets. :smiley:

2122

Everyone expects the preisdent to sign this bill passed last Thursday?>

The news media is duped and apparantly has not read the bill.
Wall street is duped. even many brokers seem to be duped. This housing bill is NOT good for the USA. IT may be good for CERTAIN individuals.
Well ok then lets keep printing dollars 24/7, our demise is certain. It is also counter productive of what a sane society should do.

EJ is sure looking heavy, with all the bad EU news how is that EJ holding up there so high? EU economy is sliding too. But who wouldnt take the EU over the USD eh?

2123

“The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly.” -Warren Buffet.

and we all know he was never any good at investing… :slight_smile:

2124

SMA’s are good for all TF’s the shorter the TF the less you can count on a ST trend. They are not indicators of a trend. But if you have several SMA’s what they form is a bunch of lines which if you study them you will see that they converge and diverge. Go together and move apart. Carefully watch the distance BETWEEN the SMA lines.

Trends are determined after 3 up or down bars, for me a trend is established after 3 bars going the same way, trends established on smaller TF’s are just that ST trends which could change at any moment. Of course with GJ even longer TF’s can often reverse right out of a trend. Guppy seems to act in a random way but her movements are far from random.

2125

I am glad we agree on this. I am also glad we are back to another week of trading.

2126

My big question is, how do you know where to draw these fibs, especially the fans? I always learned from last sw to last sl … but you are not doing that … the top on July 21 0600 was not the high, that came later on the 23rd.
I had a fan fib drawn from the low of the 25th to the high of the 25th, which was the last sh/sl, but obviously not the right place to draw it.
I had the regular fib drawn correctly as you mentioned above and in fact price stopped at exactly the intersection of the 50 retracement of the regular fib with the 61.8 of the fan fib. She does seem to respect her fibs so this is a valuable tool.
But … how do you know exactly where to draw them? Or do you just develop a “feel”?

2127

This comment just reminded me of something I learned a while back from another trader (who made a lot of money with it) while trading equities. I have not applied it to forex, but as of today I give it a try & see if it can help decipher our guppy moves :smiley: Whatever might work…

What you do is this: set up a new guppy chart, which can be toggled among tf’s. Make everything black on the chart so you do not see price bars at all.
Now start adding ma’s to the chart, using fib numbers and starting with 5, making each one a different pretty color :slight_smile:
So it would be 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 134, 233. I usually stop there.
We called them “rainbow ma’s”.

What you are watching for is to see all the lines in order & preferably spread a bit apart and I would say, from the hourly to the daily tf … but we will need to experiment.

For example, on July 22 at 1300 ET if you look at the hourly price chart, there was not a lot of indication where price might go next … but the rainbow ma’s had just moved into alignment, the top 4 in particular untangled themselves from the prior few hours price action and were now in order … could be a slightly leading signal for things to come. That would be nice. :cool:

Likewise on July 15, around 4am on the hourly, the rainbows lines up in reverse, looks like an early indication that she would be breaking that long consolidation to the downside, which she did.

Well FWIW, I’m throwing it out … play with it as you will, at the least you will have a pretty chart to look at! We used to use it to spot penny stocks that were ready to start seriously moving … so, as said, I have no idea how it will work for forex & especially the guppy so use at your own risk. :smiley:

2128

guppie.jpg700×324 44.7 KB

I like your artistic idea :slight_smile:
Using the proposed method from 24th July onwards all line have got mixed up completely, I recon they are sending mixed signals. The corresponding price action reflects this quite well.
Looks like the bus driver has a break or is looking on the map before kicks in.:rolleyes:
Sorry but I still can’t make this picture opening on click. Needs to be right mouse click and open in a separate window.

2129

Oh sweet Guppy. Will you please get cheap soon? I will buy you dinner and rope you the moon.:smiley:

That rainbow isn’t a far cry from the M2P if you think about it. The M2P just filters out all the un-needed ma’s and keeps the ones you need to look at.

I do like how it uses only fibo number ma’s. I have been wanting to check that out and have not done so yet.

2130

Keep the 5, 13, 55, 233 for the M2P charts main set ups.

Make small ma lines one color only for the rest (8, 21, 34, 89, 134) and observe how price acts around them.

Could be worth the effort. I will be observing.

2131

You want her cheap? A sophisticated lady like that?? Better be prepared to buy her a steak dinner at a fancy restaurant with wine … try taking her to McD and you will lose her forever!

The rainbow is more of a momentum play, although it can be used as a value play like M2P if you have the longer ma’s in order and the top (short) ones taking a nosedive all together…

I will try your other setup … if I understand it right, maybe post a chart of it in your thread.

2132

Ha Ha:D We’re going to Burger King.

It’s not my other setup. It’s just an idea… well your idea. I will set it up and post it over there.

2133

Fine. But she will never date you again and her limo will speed right past you without stopping.

I plan on a shopping spree with her in Toronto, you can bet she will want me on the limo :smiley:

2134

All the girls like slumming with M2P and going to Burger King for the Angus Whopper value meal. They just don’t go home and tell. Especially Guppy, she has a reputation to hold.

2135

The DOW is getting cheap but the guppy is not.:mad:

Are these two even related anymore now that the long term carry trades are not hot anymore?:confused:

2136

No, but look how she syncs with oil (inverse movement). She knows where the real money is :smiley:

2137

But often I dont have as many as I would like as my chart gets clogged
but it is good in long range stuff as you can see patterns. And often price respects certain levels especially those around 50 and 200 I use 200 just because everyone else does, so I see what they see as well as all my other stuff, which really amounts to nothing really. I never even use the same stuff I have so many saved charts.

Chart17.zip (103 KB)

2138

i think we may need to shock her back to life…

2139

Don’t use candles use bars. From those lines I can see she is consolidating.
And those lines will converge and get closer together. then look for a momentum breakout at some point. But in the meantime I expect GJ to continue to carry up continuously even if slowly. We will get dips down,
but she is going to keep moving up. I won’t suggest that by a certain date we will hit 220 or 225. But I will tell you one thing, WHEN we DO. I will NOT be short :slight_smile: She can surely make new all time highs despite what the illusion is telling you.

It is like a freight train comeing through at top speed when she moves sometimes. For now she doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. But look at the chart, she is going to keep moving up, it is what she does best.

2140

we talked about it here alot 144
144
55+89=144 Right?