Out again! another 75% gone.
I learned never underestimate the ability of the bottom to fall out of GJ!
OUCH! I really feel for yaā¦seriously 
Well this was very āenlighteningāā¦of ones equity that is :eek: One must really have deep pockets to play this game especially with this pair.
It did however give me something to think about as far as earning interest goes and leaving trades open longer, but perhaps in a little more conservative wayā¦didnāt really understand carry trades that much, and now I do thanks to you.
Hope it makes a comeback for you soon 
I had $68,000 in my account last night, now I have $9,000. And yes, it was a real account. You can say I was stupid but I did trade the system for a little over a week in a demo account. It seemed simple enough, and is, I didnāt feel a need to trade it demo any longer. And still donāt. What would have trading demo done to avert this situation?
Was there a way out of this? Could my demo skills have avoided this catastrophe? I donāt think so. I just held onā¦there were no āsave your assā tactics here I didnāt know about.
The only thing I could have done in hindsight was put in that short hedge order for the total number of trades I had long. I set up that trade, but later took it out feeling that I was not expressing faith in the systemā¦and I was certain it would turn around and head back up before that trade could do any good.
Wellā¦easy come easy go I guess. I will eventually recover I suppose. That IS a lot of money and I will feel it, but it wonāt kill me.
I do wish I didnāt trade this on my real account, of course. If this had happened with a demo it would have taught me not to touch it. So that was where I was stupid. But I did believe in the system, too much.
For it to work I think I would have to trade micro lots or trade minis with a much larger balance (I was trading 2 or 3 minis per trade). If I had traded 1 mini per trade the return would be so small and the work to get it so large I just donāt know if it would have been worth the hassle.
Now I wish there was a way I could recover from this. I have $9,000 in my account. I could probably get some more in there in a week or so. Not up to $50,000 (my financial adviser has the only direct acess to all my cash and I donāt want to tell him I blew $50,000). So do I go long on the GJ believing it will retrace much of this? I may as well do something crazy. I donāt care about the 9k I have left (I sound like I am in a Casino now!!)
I will go back to being a good boy and trading almost risk free if I recover. I had a system going for me that made $100k into $400k since February. With no where near the exposure. Why didnāt I stick with that? Ahā¦nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Thanks to all hereā¦and Elijah, I of course put no blame on you or your system. I went into this eyes wide open. It is a cool system and I liked playing it. We just hit a rare occurrenceā¦too bad it was on my second time out.
I will trade this on a demo I supposeā¦just to see if this breakdown ever happens again.
Good trading!! 
I feel for you guys, [B]but donāt give up[/B]. But you do need to take a little time away from the market to clear your head. If you donāt, you will find yourself revenge trading.
Ever wonder why the casinos put the $50 and $100 slots at the exit?
I once blew $350,000 on a bad business deal. No, it wasnāt Forex but the money was the same no matter what. Also, I am not rich. Blows like that hurt. Yet I didnāt give up and well on my way now to being back to where I was.
That is why I am looking at trading. With trading, if you make a mistake, just tell yourself āI screwed upā and walk away to the next trade with most of your capital still in place. In business, if you screw up, you lose almost all capital.
One draw back to trading demo for so long you get used to taking chances knowing it doesnāt really matter. When I opened my real account it all looked exactly the sameā¦I like taking risk, so I dove right in. I have only blown one account before, buying down on the GU which moved 300 pips in one evening (another rare occurrence). But that was a demo account. When this strategy opened up I went for it, like I was trading on a demo account. I do believe in taking risk to be rewarded high gain. But not risk like this. It was an immature thing to do and I cop to that completely. But I have done well all my life doing crazy things, so it is part of my personality! 
I donāt think it will ALWAYS bite you to be risky. Sometimes you eat the bear, sometimes the bear eats you. I got eaten.
Yes, I will not give up. Sometimes I think of that as a disadvantage. I never give upā¦everā¦and often times I wish I would. I will find a way to get more money in my account and go at it again. And I will succeed at this, no question in my mind about itā¦but it still hurtsā¦and right now I am not feeling so great about this loss.
Thanks for your post, mytwopips, at least after reading that I feel like my $50,000 wasnāt so great. In the big scheme of things I guess it isnāt. I do have moreā¦and I have lost that much in the stock market easily over the past year (much more actually.) Cost of doing business I guess. I suppose what bugs me the most is feeling that I was irresponsible placing dozens of no SL buy trades as a pair is going down. Using my previous method of trading, which did well, I would never have been at that sort of risk exposure.
Anywayā¦this has been interesting and fun as well! The cool thing about the forex is that you can make $50,000 ALMOST as easy as you can lose it!! :rolleyes: At least there is the potential for that!! [I][B]Iāll be back![/B][/I]
See yaā¦
Todd
Hi rrram2 and all!
My very first post here in the forum, first to say thanks to rram2 for the system. I like cleaned charts and simple systems, so I decided to join theā¦ āadventureā. In a ābadā week I have to admit. You see, my first open position with this system that still open is at 204,79ā¦ so far, I still confortable with it: Iām trading real at Oanda, in a sub-account, and I apply 0,05% as lot size. Of course, I donāt expect GBP/JPY continues in downtrend to 192ās as on last March 16 but with this pair who knows? May be I should have applied a 0,01% as lot sizeā¦ =:)
Hey pipalheiroā¦welcome, and good luck.
rrram2 had mentioned in some post he was going to devise some sort of hedging idea to this systemā¦maybe with a short that ran along side the longs being bought to offset the draw down. I hope he still considers this.
Although my account basically got blown, I think if I had had a short trade put in at the total number of my long opened trades to trigger on that breakout I would have survived it. Someone suggested doing this and I set it up only to delete the pending trade (??? dufus). Anywayā¦it would have saved me.
I have $9,000 still in my account. If by some miracle GJ rises at the open and races up I may have a chance to get some of that balance back. (Elijah, do you think this will happen?) I plan to play it carefullyā¦scalping on the way up. Since I have nothing to lose, I may scalp with larger lot sizes, who knows. Cowboy time.
It would be nice if there were some sort of protection against this sort of run down killing your account. It isnāt nice to trade a system even if there is a very slight chance you could lose it all. Obviously we have seen it happen right here. rrram2 himself had a blowout.
I am refunding my account soon. I donāt think I will trade this live againā¦at least not for a while. If rrram devises a little bit of a safety plan then Iād try it again. I do like it.
Todd
Todd, this is very bad situation for every trader and every excellent trader has this experience. Do not put away your 9K account which is now available, do not forget that you can turn every small account(5-10K) into million after some time. I think the best what you can do now is DO NOT TRADE minimal two weeks and do not try to get your money back. I do not know how your financial situation is but for me 10K is lot of money and I know lot of people which starts with 300 - 2K accounts are very happy with small gains and try to learn consistency, persistence and discipline which is most important. It is not about one week trading, even one month. We deal with best business in the world if handled professionally. Take care and best luck
Thank youā¦this was a very good post, I appreciate it. My $9k however is not in the clear. This is what I was implying when I said I would carefully trade it. There is still a $6k draw down, so my point is that I want to get it clear of that draw down. I want to salvage it, not really āget my money backā but to get some of that true balance back. Otherwise I AM just letting it go, which I donāt want to do. Once this week has passed and the GJ has done what it will do then I will sit back and regroup.
I have been trading demo for two years now. I do feel that I have learned somethingā¦Iāve shared on this forum a zillion times how successful my trading has been. However, I know live trading is different. I was afraid that difference would be a fear of going out on a limb. For me it has been the opposite. I never really thought of my live account as being ārealā and dove in with a new strategy right off the bat (I did demo it for a while, but that isnāt the point, I should have been much more conservative.) Now I have learned the hard wayā¦although I think if I had been trading this GBP strategy for the past year on a demo I would still have had this experience. Me blowing the account had nothing to do with my skill as a traderā¦rrram2ās account got blown too, and he is the expert.
Anywayā¦what you say here is very valuable. I intend to do things very carefully and according to my plan. And have patience. Thanks again for your commentsā¦
Todd
Times get tough like they are now and lots of people cannot affored to keep thier funds in earning interest and have to take it out. SO it is going down.
But I am still certain she is coming back and cannot get over how low she went on nothing significant. Prolly some big fat bank running us down and out and them boom 2 days later we hit 210 or some crazy price.
The price of gas at 3.60 a gallon here is getting pricey even in a honda.
I still think you have a good concept of your strategy. I just like my idea of waiting until the 50 ema is about 100 pips below the 200 ema, and price is about 100 pips below the 50 and looking to make like a pinbar. Do this on the 15m (with magnification all the way out) so you get more setups about once or twice a week. This doesnāt mean you only trade once or twice a week. This means you start the series that often. In theory, you could never stop trading this and always be in action.
Then you will need an ultimate exit point for all trades, not really a stop but bailout. Also the no stop loss rule for this pair will require a true leverage of around 1:1 or 2:1 if you must. This will require a large account size to get any decent rewards for when those swings are not so wild.
I looked back about a year on this pair and seen that this blow out can happen around once every two months. Yes in theory the blowout will never occur if you can keep the funding. But in the real world, funds do run out. If this pair shoots back around 210 I will absolutely feel broken for you guys.
And Yes, gas sucks!!! I own a nice GMC 6.0L Vortec that I do not even drive anymore. Itās retarded to spend 50-60 bucks a day driving when I can fill up my 4 banger chick car with gas all week on that.
If you were that close to the bottom. You needed to close out some of your low orders. I did but apparantly not enough of them. Price seems to have already come up off the bottom. Well your demo skills would have avoided this as that money would have been demo money and hopefully after going through a crazy cycle like this and getting wiped out demo, you get to NOT lose the money and hopefully still learn that your margin has to be maxxed at 400:1 NOT 100:1 fxsol lets you CHANGE your margin in the middle of a trade,
which would have let you multiply your equity TIMES 4 basically, which means you would not have got sold out. Itās also BS that a broker sells out all your open positions. Mine does the same. But you (we) could have sold off more lots from the bottom at a loss to free up more margin so we could live through a bigger move down like it did surprising everyone but the freaks behind it. I expect it to move way up now that it has wiped most every long out. This way you lose on a few minilots or 5 or 10 but not ALL 43 or however many you had. I played it to the death and swore I had a nightmare that I was wiped out and woke up and I was. I was foolish in not selling more at a loss and getting ready for a run down to 200 or lower, 198 even.
One thing is for sure, it didnāt run down like this without some sort of its price memory staying intact & forcing it back up.
I know that feeling after you lose 80% of your account you just donāt care about the rest of it. I did that 2 times this time. so its not smart.
And I have done that once before on 3/16. Wiped out 80% and then wiped out 80% again in a day or less!
Many times though I HAVE MADE it through and held on all the way to the bottom and rode it back up and sold all my lots for a profit.
I was comparing EJ to GJ and it looked like it was moving in the same directing almost exactly butit seemed like its range was more but the charting software just made it look like that as the charts had different scales. I used to only trade EJ and GJ scared me. And even once after losing bad on some shorts I swore to God I would never trade GJ again.
It is almost like a bad habit, which has a high risk reward ratio but also contains an extreme beast like force that can swing price 700 pips a day.
Thatās why I play it. Itās the most exciting. And the most profitable when she is going your way. That definately knocks me down for the year.
But things are still looking up I think. Iāve just got too build a little more equity, sell a house, and refinance before the rates shoot up. I think rates have peaked at what is going to be thier lowest level (UNLESS GJ GOES BELOW 198).
It is funny I was thinking i need to get some money in my account so I can buy some more GJ, because it is at such a good price
I guess I need to be more patient, hold my longs longer and use even less margin or change to micro lots and do like 5 of them or something,
30 pips is $15 or something. I only had 16K in my account so I was way pushing it as I had several points where I had as many as 5 minilots spaced 5 pips apart (this was a new thing I tried {IT FAILED}) at quite a few price points where I thought we were at what had to be bottoms.
Clearly I overextended my margin and at one point when I had it below 33% I should have stopped buying and held them and I would have been able to go to the low and live even if I had to sell a few low ones for a loss. Thing is I was amazed at how low it went before it turned around. Even now I donāt think it is going to go down anymore.
Hindsite is 20/20. And I have alot of it and learn alot from it.
I am still certain this system will work as a long term equity building system.
It certainly been more exciting that rental properties. I lost some $ on a short too as I canceled it at a loss. I always detest learning at such a great expense. IF I traded this on micro lots and was making less it would still be as exciting I guess but the upside as well as the downside would be limited.I reareneded someone yesterday, good thing it wasnāt the day before or I would have kicked his ass. He was acting all crazy and wanted to kick my ass. It was an accident I said and after 5 or 6 times of him jumping in my face and almost hitting me it was all I could do to remain calm and not knock him out. I donāt feel bad. But I am sure not as excited about all the additional work I have to do to make up for some of my losses. The sad fact is that some of my losses were funded with acouple credit cards and I still owe the bills! I too will never give up. And I know it is a huge bank that ran us down. And I asked for it and mismanaged my funds and overextended my margin and got ****y and arrogant even and to deft me instead of price going where I expect she went 100% opposite which was very disheartening.
I got a good night sleep last night. And tomrrow I will see if I have any credit cards with any available credit and any accounts I can deposit money in. BEcause I might have $600 in my other account (laugh).
So hold on to your position and fortify it and collect the inerest and donāt buy any unless you are hugely conservative and at the bottom.
I very much would like to buy some more long at 200.00 and TRY to hold them LT and maybe sell them in 3 months when price is back around 220.00.
I have been getting so busy with service calls and am hiring an apprentice to take some over. I have 2 weeks of paperwork to do. But I will be watching GJ come 3PM tomorrow.
Elijahā¦thanks for all the postsā¦I will respond to your email privatelyā¦
Butā¦for nowā¦what would you suggest can be done with $9,000 balance and a $6,000 draw down? If price does not go down, but instead starts up, I will hopefully start to profit, but I think my lowest long trade is at 204 something (I thinkā¦the broker wiped out most others.)
Should I just sit and let it go, not playing it at all to try to get my balance healthy? Or should I make an attempt to save some of this, and make some trades? At this point it is a crap shoot for me, and I donāt really see having an alive account at all it is so margined out.
Just donāt know what to do with this situation before I re-fund my accountā¦and get back in the saddle!!! I am NOT revenge trading. I made a calculated risk, and I lost. Thatās life. This will not stop me from tradingā¦I do not trade with money I cannot afford to loseā¦there is more where that came from for sure. I am not rich, but I believe you have to take risk to make money. I have learned a lot from this, and will not make the same mistake againā¦thatās for sure.
Todd
I can tell you I DO NOT like the looks of the Stoch RSI 14, 14, 3, 3 on the 1 hour chart. It looks like we have a way to move down yet maybe to 198?
RSI has turned up but it can just as quickly plummet. LIke it did not that many trading hours ago.
LOOKS like it will open gap down about 30 pips ATM.
But it is going to open gap down. Price is rising ATM, who knows where it will be at open. Open for me is 4PM EDT.
Although I look at the price movement in GJ as early as noon through esignal.
I do not know who is trading now, but someone is putting in orders and buying and selling GJ.
You should be very conservative, unlike me as more than once I have lost about 80% and then went and lost another 80% of my remaining 20%!
SO that cowboy stuff and not feeling like caring about the rest takes the rest away.
I would try to hang on. I would try to get more money in your account. Stop buying for now. COllect interest. Use only one minilot units if you do.
I think 200 is going to have to be the bottom here. Its yen and dollar strength kicking GJ now. Now way the sorry ass USD can hold these values against the pound, 195.30ās is way low. SO that hurts too! And yen kicking USD also hurts! I think the yen has to chill and the GBP has to come back against the dollar. There is no valid reason USD should be stomping on GBP now. Things in the USA are far grimmer than UK.
I am hesitant to get long at this point without grabbing them quite a bit lower like around 198 until I see what is on her mind for the week.
Hi Guys, Ireally needhelp with the code for this expert advisor i have been working on. iām new to programming and was wondering if anyone here could look at my code and correct it so that it buys an sell . currently it only executes short trades. iām going crazyā¦havenāt left home in three days. If the expert is profitable lets all have it:)
Iattached the expert, thanks in advance.
Still driving the 5.3, gotta be able to pull the trailer. I had it so loaded up with hay today it wasnāt funny. I had 70 bales and my trucks rear was 4 inches from the ground. But I got home and dropped it at the end of the driveway.
Thatās funny my dad plays 1:1 no margin. I am not in that boat yet
I still say the more the better. Thatās how it works in Real Estate you must use OPM (other peoples money). The more of thier money you use, the less of yours you use, so when you profit you exponentially multiply your money.
And can spread it around on all sorts of Real Estate deal or whatever.
You will profit the quickest by maximizing your leverage. I will bet you this is what they teach at Harvard Business School. I heard the school now makes 8 billion a year in tax free interest on thier 46billion in endowments or something. They have the largest amount of endowmwents than ANY other school in the USA.
I use SMA, ema is the wrong product for what you are using it for.
And I prefer the numbers a fib numbers not meaningless psychological numbers like 50 100 200 BAH. 21 34 55 89 and so on 268
I am not saying what you are suggesting wont work some of the time.
Millions of folks are doing the SAME thing, SMAās crossing.
She made up the gap before open and may even have gapped up slightly,
for now we are holding at 201. I would at least like to get some down around 200.00 if I get in. I still need to put more money in my account.
I have $40.66! HAH
I just put in $600 from my debit card after changing the lot size on my account from mini (10K) to micro (1K). Wow my $40 got me a microlot and I was already at 12% margin. Wait until my $600 gets credited.