Possible good news for you guys that have held on this long. GJ has made a descending triangle today with a triple bottom and the 50 ema is way below the 200 ema and might want to hook up. This pair is going to go somewhere real fast in the next day (or two). The only problem is we are heading into the end of the week. I don’t know if any of your guys brokers require more margin over the weekend or not.
I would put in pending (not market! not at this level!) shorts and longs. The shorts will be to hedge your capital loss while letting you build the equity on your previous longs if the price goes south. The longs to catch them pips if it makes that nice move up. After the price moves, just cancel out the opposite direction that didn’t get filled. If it moves south, close the shorts after consolidation so they don’t eat into your equity or capital when retraces back up.
In case I haven’t said this here, or enough. The yen will remain weak in relation to the pound and other majors with sunstantially higher interest rates.
Last time I checked BOJ was at .50% and BOE was at 5.0%. Yes Yen is financing the world. YEs I sold yen and hold pound. I insist that in the long run the pound will win.
The yen is at record highs and its strength cannot last. The banking industry isn’t in the mess everyone says it is. I’ve got oodles of banks with money to lend to credit worthy borrowers. It’s just that times have changed,
and what was once considered acceptable is no longer accepted.
And the BOJ and the japanese people are the least in debt in the world and finance all of us…so? someone has to do it.It is NO secret that BOJ has kept thier interest rate low intentionally and sure doesn’t seem to have any thoughts of raising it in the future. I believe that their current rate of .5%
is really against thier better judgement of thier old 0.0% rate. I am not saying they are going to lower it or reduce it to 0% again. But I doubt they will raise it any time soon.
As long as the Yen and boj policies and interest rates remain the same,
there is MUCH less risk of GJ heading further south than there is of its going UP.
I am not going to say the yen is a piece of ****. But I too learned the hard way (by losing lots of dollars) several times about the ultimate weakness of the YEN!
Fridays trades aren’t counted until Tuesday so there can be no additional margin required to carry a trade from Tuesday to Wednesday. She more than might want to hook up. Her hooking up is as sure as the moon rising tomorrow evening.
Forget the shorts, they go with stop loss orders.
SMA’s are better for price levels, they aren’t exaggerated.
WE has no significance as to the GJ price or direction, unless it is a WE where huge futures contracts are expiring.
I knew you wouldn’t like the short idea:) . I just threw it in there for those guys about to get their accounts called. Yep, the great thing about Forex is there are no time limits.
The fourth bottom of the triangle has just been formed.
Well…I tried a hedge trade on this most recent run down to .40 and got killed. Lost $800. So I won’t try that again. I guess I am just in for the long haul. If it goes down, I’ll die an honorable death. If it goes up, I’ll be sitting pretty. I am going to put my energy in thinking positively.
BTW, MyTwoPips…your suggestion is a good one…and yes, the short I placed should not have been at market. I should have placed it a bit below the support, of course, but I responded emotionally…a fool and his money is soon parted, eh?
I am sticking with the original intention…if it breaks support and barrels down I suppose I will try anything to stop the margin call. We’ll see.
I am not one of those “forex hedge” guys. The buying and selling of the same pair at the exact same time is nothing more than stupid. I was talking about protecting your capital and open trades if you are close to a margin call. I was also talking about doing it with a pending order if a move south was confirmed. I am with you guys on this one. I think she is about to explode up after that fourth bottom. On the fundamental side she is to low too. This is also coming from a guy who is known to be wrong on occasions.
I duhhnnnooo…I’ve drawn a regression channel on the daily from Mar 16th to now and it’s been steadily ranging upwards. However, it’s now straddling the bottom channel line and after using this channel indicator a bit now, I’ve found if it closes outside the bottom line, it usually goes down…as in a breakout :eek: Hope not, but that’s the probabilities side of it.
Yes, MyTwoPips…I agree with you. I was saying in my edited post that your suggestion was good. I didn’t want you to think I thought your suggestion cost me my $800…it was my impatience. You clearly said to place it below support.
And like I said, I may do this if it is what is necessary to save my account…but the broker may not let me place such a large trade…we’ll see.
Anyway…I like to hear that there is more of a chance it will blow up than down. I feel the same way. It is testing that bottom over and over with no results…eventually it will give up and head north. I’ve seen this happen lots of times…But it sure doesn’t have the momentum on that rebound.
Uh ohh.:eek: Well I hope it’s up for you guys. Whatever she does, it will be fast and sudden.:eek: The only thing to stop it is tomorrow is drunk price choppy Friday.
So…the more times it hits this bottom and doesn’t break through the less likely it will breech it? This is the fifth time I think, and it bounces like a rubber ball.
Or is it the more often it tests the low the more likely it will break through it?
Considering the bottoms are a part of a descending triangle, orthodox thinking says south. [B][U][U]But[/U][/U][/B] there are many factors coming to play that says up. It’s a crap shoot, but she is going to move.
I am in the middle of a new account. I closed my micro and opened a mini. I am waiting for my funds to complete. If I was in, I would stick to my pending straddled orders.
I suppose Elijah is asleep dreaming of all the pips he will have in the morning…I hope his dreams come true!! I would love to see this puppy work. I will be at his feet tomorrow if this sucker turns around.
What are the things in play that say it could move up?
Quoted from Babypips school it says “The more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it the stronger the area of resistance or support is.”
However, I don’t like it when it tests too often as it seems it a little too focused on it …2 bounces ok, 3 or more and I get nervous.
Im Long with SL at 202.00, any break below this triangle(close bearish candle) I’m going short. Hope I dont get caught in a “bull trap”. Also its possible for this consolidation to last until next weeks open.
Yes, it seems the more it tests the more it strengthens…thanks for that info.
In this case I can see the many tests as being typical for GJ…and also, this run has been long and powerful…it won’t just stop on a dime. But I am getting very nervous…it IS hanging out down there too long…over and over again…
It should cost you NO additional margin to go short with as many lots as tyou want up to the numberof lots you have long.
Yes that 250 pips down overnight wiped me out. 80% of my accountis gone and this includes 6K in profits for the month of may.
I have about 10 more minilots down low into 201.50 and dwon to 200.98.
I am holding these open with NO TP’s
I cant see it going down much more and am floored already by that 250 pips overnight. MY broker sucks in that they feel the need to close all my 43 DIFFERENT orders. THat is a bull**** policy to sell everything in someones account on a margin call instead of closing positions as needed.
Lucky for my dad he has a broker that doesn’t do him like this.
Maybe there are no decent forex brokers. The reason they do this is clear,
they are playing the opposite side of the trade.
I made major mistakes. Many times in those 43 orders I had TMTH at 5 pip spacing at supports which eventually fell through.
BUt watch now, as we return up to 208 and about all the longs are cleared out of the pending orders I bet. And most if not all longs have been sold.
I would have stayed in if I could. I am again floored and shocked by 250 pips down overnight.
Even if I make 700 pips on my 10 minlots long, I still wont have all the money back I just lost last night.
Whatever she does, it will be fast and sudden.:eek: The only thing to stop it is tomorrow is drunk price choppy Friday.
