And how does price “prove” the decline is over?
Hi, oh that should be simple 
Elijah will come out and bash all newbies (including myself) more often. There will be THE BUS going North and all sorts of stuff
Just out of interest: do you think the current decline is the wave 3/5 or it’s going to be the wave 5/5 (if truncated it may stop at 193 or “slightly” lower)?
I fully agree, so far (taking support levels which are giving way one after another) this looks like another carry trade meltdown. The great contribution is being played by Cable. The clouds are just gathering over the Island and it’s gonna rain heavily soon. The rate cut which was out of question just one month ago now seems like a possible treatment.This won’t help Guppie. I’m just wandering where is the source of this meltdown ???:eek:
I’ve never seen anything like this. I am overwhelmed. Any guesses about a bottom?
Pipsquito, check out this thread:
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6632-alternative-technical-templates.html
They will show you a simple way of following price action without tons of indicators. They are also discussing the guppy at the moment.
I hope you are out of most longs … this is not over according to nearly every prognosis. I’ve been short since 206.70 which I thought was a late entry, but not any more! Even if you only want to be long, best to get out, conserve money and have more to buy with when she finally bottoms.
She [I]will [/I]bottom … but no signs of that yet, and most are saying she will break 200 first. Instead of jogging after her, cash out, take a plane to Rio Gallegos (google it) and meet her there … you will have more cash to accompany her back
Nope…still holding all the longs, but have been short for a while with equal positions. Of course, if I knew what I know now I would have let some go…and actually just let go of quite a few of them.
My account is pretty busted. I don’t think this game is for me.
Its moving like a knife through butter. Killing BULLS along the way.
I guess one way to cut some losses is to start pruning your tree.
If you are going long on multiple lots, start shaving off a lot or three off the top end and try to lessen the burden of those long bets. I’m guessing a little pruning will help lessen the need to keep short hedges while keeping the interest swap positive. It may just give you a bit of margin back to keep riding downward.
Well…I am holding on. I have been picking up pips along the way and throwing overboard some old high trades, but nothing is going to really relieve this until some sort of retracement. If it passes 202.65 and sticks it will probably go on to 198. My hedge is holding up, but I am running out of equity so I can’t make any mistakes. I figure it will back up on itself to some extent at some point…even if it is weeks from now I can hold out. I will also probably re-fund the account to add some buffer. I am NOT buying until I can be reasonably sure she is moving up for a while. I would rather just get rid of this drawdown.
She has retraced to 205+ and with momentum …
I sold some longs for profit after that 202 - 205 thing. I will get some more at 202 if needed.
I about freaked out this morning when I seen that I could only survive another 500 pips and I was out. I went to the bank and sent IBFX some buffer money to survive to 192 if needed and a little extra to buy more longs.
As of right now I need 175 days of +swap to be at b/e.
After my buffer money hits IBFX, I don’t think I am going to sell anymore off. I am just going to close my trading window and walk away for a week.
Come on now, we all know that isn’t going to happen.
Now…are we to think this isn’t real? Go, baby, go! I do hope this continues…lapping it up for sure.
Today is triple interest yeeeaaaaahhhhhhh!!!
I bet that makes everyone feel better.
[B]GO GUPPY GO!!![/B]
Ha ha… Last words ever spoken by mytwopips before he vanishes.:rolleyes:
Don’t you wish the market gave golf rules?
“Awe $hi, shot it in the pond. Ok, I will take a drop ball here. Just charge me a few extra pips on the spread of this trade”.
You’re sure about that? Sentiment still seems to favor the downside to under 200 … but since you can sustain much lower than that … whatever works. Just hope that cadarkitek is not right in his prediction!
Me too.
Wasn’t long ago everyone was cheering 1.7 euro. Folks will always overshoot. Sooner or later there will be some take profits and value guys coming in.
I think that dip to 202 and back up such late in the day was longs giving up and taking losses, pushing price down more. Then the sudden run back up must have been the first of the value guys getting in.
Yo no se?
Good question.
Whenever a pair collapses - as so many of the dollar crosses did last week and some of the Yen crosses this week - any trade idea that involves taking a position in the opposite direction should be treated with a principled skepticism. Play a simple game of devil’s advocate with your idea for a preliminary test of its feasibility.
Why shouldn’t the market continue in the direction it is moving? Can you give empirical detail, avoiding verbs that are tentative and intangible like “think” and “feel”? The market is no respecter of persons and completely dispassionate.
Can you enumerate concrete, objectively verifiable reasons the market should reverse? There’s no room for vague generalizations or presumptuous statements here.
Where will the market go if it does reverse? More specifically, what level will it [I]at least[/I] attain? Is your money management strategy aligned with your entry and your targets?
What is the source of your directional bias? Is your pending trade decision influenced by some external source (e.g. individual, website, etc.)? What is the basis for their credibility?
When you consider this trade, do any other trades come to mind? If it was a winning trade, check your pride. If it was a losing trade, check your pride. Winning engenders a lax attitude, while losing incites vengefulness or a need to find immediate reassurance.
Those questions and others like them not only litmus test your psychological state, but answered completely can provide a pretty good indication of the validity of the rationale underlying your prospective trade. If you do pass through them (cut corners and it’s to your detriment and yours alone), you probably also have a serviceable map for your trade.
The most important immediate “proof” we derive from the market is here:
“Can you enumerate concrete, objectively verifiable reasons the market should reverse?”
In my own case, price itself presages when it will turn: candlestick patterns, chart patterns, line studies, S/R, etc… “Proof” is always situational and never really proof except in hindsight - we simply speculate whether the probability of the setup we are trading off of will become genuine “proof”, i.e. a probability of 1 - and recognizing it when it occurs is the real knack of a good technician.
…this looks like it benefit newbie island right now - think I’ll post it up there.