Whoa, was that a jet that just buzzed my house.
No, it was guppy!
The speed she’s traveling, she’s not going to stop in Brownsville.
She better learn some spanish and portuguese.
It looks like I let a trade turn into an investment. I can survive another 1000 pips without a problem. I guess I better go wire IBFX some money to cover my “investment” just to make sure, and a little more to trade with.
REASSURANCE:) Take that for what it’s worth, about two pips from mytwopips if any at all.
I knew this neckline test was going to be a b***, but this has taught me a lesson. Guppy is no different than any other pair. Right now it is going to take me 100 days of interest to b/e.
Tomorrow is triple interest, yeah:D, if that makes anyone feel better.
I’ve learned the same painful lesson as well. Although wild and crazy SHE is being ruled by the same sets of rules. Closing price, trends and candlestick patern + take it or leave it:D. The range she moves within is just much broader.
There is no Abracadabra , no major magic involved. However she is unpredictable and she can run like crazy. But for now I would probably buy some dips and sell it for 30 to 40 pips higher but she drives a bus like a maniac both directions, doesn’t matter whether she drives for a holiday in Argentina:D or shopping in Alasca 
so I will stand aside probably.
There are so many other new trends unfolding. I will stubornly short EUR-JPY at least to the 155 level. Hope this helps.
On the serious side it wouldn’t be a bad idea to sell a L-L now (before it generates a sucking whole in your account). As far as the other issue (the level she can fall) is being concerned - if the closing prices have anything in common with a basic market rules and SHE is being guided by the same sets of rules (trendline break, candlestick patterns, rising wedge formation etc) this all can’t offer You any guarantee that she will stop her holiday in Argentina and will come back to shop in Toronto - but never say never. :eek:
If the new trend is just being established and she follows it, the 197 level is the highest bottom she is going to bang in a days, weeks time.
this is just inexperienced Newbie’s rant which one can put straight into the bin.
A few items to look at:
To construct the wedge, draw 2 ascending trendlines:
Rising wedges are sometimes the pattern corrective trends take on as part of a continuation pattern but are noteworthy for their practical inconsistency with the theory behind them.
The pattern is confirmed, though. The downside breakout below the lower ascending trendline from 3/17 @ ~211.15 is apparent; but how deep will this leg go? This is a question of whether or not the downward trend from 252 is resuming.
A textbook price target after a rising wedge? The first touch on the lower ascending trendline: in this case, @ 192.64. 
At the very least, we had an ascending trendline with three previous touches that broke when price closed below it on the 08/10 1600 ET candle (cf. 1H chart). A small throwback above the line on the 08/11 0000 ET candle was immediately negated by a bearish engulfing candle on 0100 ET, and with that the pair has gone down 400 pips.
What’s significant about 207? Draw a horizontal line across a 1D chart @ that price. Now look back through this year? 206.60-207.20 has been a significant fulcrum.
That’s a large S/R zone, though. So how about something more precise? Draw a fib retracement study from the swing high @ 215.89 (on 07/23) to the recent swing low @ 210.54 (on 08/05). Now look down the chart for the 161.8% fib extension. Ah yes: there it is @ 207.19.
What’s next? fib fan support @ 206.59; then at ~206.30, the 23.8% fib retracement of the entire 251-192 move. Above we have 207.20, 207.80, 208.50 then the 208.94-209.30 region.
Wow…where is Elijah when we need him?
So…if what you all say is true, does that mean bye bye to this system? Considering it requires that we always return to our loss leader, or thereabouts…certainly that at some point we go UP from all of our buys. If she is going to be heading for 192, will she ever get back up to 214 within our lifetime?
I guess I can hold this short until 192 since it hedges my long positions. Maybe I can scalp a few pips along the way. But that would mean I would have a 2,000 pip losing trade, and a bunch following that as I bought down.
Hmmmm. Can’t believe this is happening to me again. Ha!!
At least I don’t have as much at risk.
No, it doesn’t mean bye bye. There’s no presumption on my part that the pair will return to 192, and there shouldn’t be from anyone else, either. But yes, it is a plausible scenario. I can’t speak for Elijah, but he might suggest selling off your loss leader(s) when necessary as price continues to decline in order to avoid a call. This would mean realizing losses, but it would also lower your basis, hopefully meaning a return to BE would not be as time-consuming.
Look back to last year at the drop from 242: try to imagine how you would’ve managed that situation. Obviously we’re nowhere near recovering that level. From there to ~192 is a much more catastrophic decline, but 214 to 192 isn’t exactly insignificant and 242-192 is beneficial to consider as a worst-case object lesson.
All i can say is thank God I am only trading this system on demo:cool:
yeah, I’m eating demo account ramen wrappers right now nzpenny.
Last week it was the dollar rally when jpy and gbp took a crap
This week looks like the JPY rally with the USD and GBP taking a dump.
I started scalping to make up some pips to trim off some of the high end loss leaders I had on my USD/JPY trades. I’m still down about 100 pips but in a better position than I was before.
Time to drown sorrows in cheap beer and some Jesus Lizard.
Well, I posted a while back that guppy will do this about every three months. It’s been about six months now and no sign. So, I guess she will hit us double this time.
I’m still buying down and can survive a thousand more pips but can’t survive to 192. So manana I am going to wire some more money just to make sure.
With each order I calculate the interest daily and think to myself “Well this isn’t so bad after all”.
It’s nice for some lurkers to come out and contribute.
Where have you guys been? Silently 007 the pips? And now come out?
It’s nice to have as many people as possible on board. Even during times like this.
All major supports have been broke and no signs of stopping. This will be a fun ride.
I can maybe see this system as a sort of long term ‘investment’ strategy for those with unlimited money to throw at it. However, it is not for traders or those with small accounts trying to grow large accounts.
In my demo acct, I was able to turn $500k into 1.2 million in 2 months, then lose it all back in one day … following strictly the rules of the game here … well, that is a lot of money, but it still did not work.
I would have to put pen to paper to see what would happen if you could afford to put say 10k into an account, just buy the guppy on pullbacks and collect the interest, topping the account up whenever the gup took a downturn … what would happen in say 5 years? Maybe it woud work, but I’ll bet that actually trading that account would produce a whole lot more.
Just my opinion … I gave it an honest try in the demo acct … but I no longer see the point of it.
She still needs to break 205 …
She’s moving up now in a straight line…but I don’t trust it. Not much reason to. I let go of my sell position for now, but will jump back in if the drawdown gets too wiggy.
I collected about $3000 to tide me over, threw out overboard about half of that to close this hedge short. But am still keeping my head above water. I am going to buy on the way up as far as it will go. Any opinion as to whether this retrace is for real? It has moved up more in the last hour than it has all day.
(nope, it wasn’t real)
My highest buy 213.35 so I ok. I am demoing this on an oanda $1000 account with 1 cent per pip. I still think the answer is to keep every 1/3 trade open so you can use them to close out any really high buys. I have made about 900 pips in 10 days. It is a fun and interesting way to trade for a bit of excitement!!!
I’m glad You’ve voiced it openly.
The big ride down happens, what’s more it’s a part of a long term trend for the pair. She can be crazy nad “unpredictable” she can fly, crawl, jump or fall but it’s still within a long term trend, no matter how many spells one wants to put on.
The basic technical problem is the range for the pair is wider than any other pair and that at some point WILL require ACTION on hanging longs, this action could be either throwing funds, selling L/L or observing the account is vanishing in a call. The strategy can be profitable under certain circumstances:
1.Calculation of the allowed drawdown and positions taking into account “worst case scenario” when the pair runs down >1000pips in a long term.
2.Available funds to “beaf up” the account
3.Planning the strategy based on the long term: if the trend is down - wider spacing between lots, selling every 30-50pips on retracements, limiting risk and the other way round if the long term trend is up going more aggressively with orders and number of lots.
That is just my observation based on the whole threat (taking into account last year and half), and there are more experts to listen to than me.
This is why a few people used to harp ceaselessly on preparing for bad times by developing a contingency plan for massive drawdowns such as this. Hopefully those trading it live have made allowance for this type of occurrence.
Support immediately below:
204.33
203.95
203.51
203.30
And for those considering a long without any real technical justification (because there isn’t any just now): don’t. Rather than catch a falling knife, wait until price proves this decline is over. Remember, any pair can always go lower/higher!
Also, be careful to distinguish between throwbacks (small retracements in price) and a legitimate turn…
Here’s a writeup regarding the UK and the inflation letter released earlier today by the MPC there: