I got plenty. I would Fed Ex if I could.
If London shows a pop, get rid of the short and go heavy on a long. If not, don’t do anything.
Now, this is no guarantee. Don’t let me break you. Just an idea how to take advantage of new sentiment if any exist.
Sounds good…that’s basically what I am thinking too. Wish this short wasn’t in the red…
oops…my short just stopped out with this spike…hope its for real…jeesh. London isn’t up yet…
Well…I’m in it now…long all the way.
Darn…killed by a fakeout spike. Took a lot of my reserves stopping out my hedge. Hopefully the tide will be in the opposite direction tonight…but if not, I’ll put the hedge back on and just wait it out and maybe re-fund tomorrow.
Very tired.
With that last high around 204,74 I can draw a new downward sloping trendline, touching the highs of 8/11 at 9pm, 8/12 at 7am 8/13 at 5am and just now, all on hourly all times ET.
This one intersects the lower upsloping one, still in place, and makes a new symetrical triangle so she could still break either way out of it.
I agree with those who say she is going to below 200 … but maybe not right away, hopefully not for all you longs (I am flat).
I won’t be back in until she gives a clear – and I do mean clear – sign what she wants to do. Watching the 4h, but if the sign ain’t flashing neon, I stay out 
I have completed step 12 of the GuppyLongsAtAnyCost Anonymous program and I am CURED!
Elijah is hiding under his desk until all this blows over??
FWIW Jeb’s target for this retracement is 207+ however I don’t think he’s been right in weeks, so … don’t take that to the bank :eek:
TMTH! Account blown. Start over.
That was a demo acct, right?? :eek:
I cashed mine out on Monday, from 1.2 mill to 400k, but at least there is something still there
But the MT4 that handles that demo acct is acting squirrely so I am using IBFX demo now, guess I will start over in any case … but no more BUY-BUY-BUY, I’m going back to being a [I]trader[/I] & will test some new strategies.
You are cured! 
Seriously, your appraisal of the method is now good because it isn’t a wholesale rejection or acceptance. You’ve tested it, found where it works and found where it’s wanting and can now move on with the knowledge you’ve acquired.
We’ve been over and over the benefits and drawbacks here, but there’s something to be made a bit more explicit: besides the massive drawdowns that can take weeks/months/years to recover from (cf. the oft-cited example of the decline from 242 last year), the Loss Leader (LL) is a really significant problem.
A practitioner of this method goes from flat to long, taking a LL position. What are the implications?
a) An LL opens the gate to successive waves of new longs if and as the market continue to decline. So, the trader makes a kind of commitment to averaging down from this initial point of departure.
b) Unless the trader is simply opening an LL because of a compulsive urge to maintain at least some presence in the market, they’re either horribly confused, or believe that the pair is at a market discount - i.e. the Guppy is cheap.
c) This came up recently on a post I left in Newbie Island, probably partly inspired by this method: how do you know the fair value of GBP/JPY? How could you know how far away from an exchange rate equilibrium the pair is? M2P is on to something with his swing method, I think, but for those going long just because the pair is off its high a couple hundred pips? Answer: you don’t really know: something else that is not very reliable is telling you.
d) This is where simple rational thought prevails: If you do not know the fair value of a pair, then you do not know it is cheap. Look at it conversely: if you do not know whether a pair is cheap, you cannot know if you are buying at a discounted value.
e) The LL you’ve purchased is probably somewhat adrift, then. Who really knows why you bought where you did? But now you have a “loss leader”, which implies other positions will follow. They’ll be closer to wherever the pair decides to reverse: but when will it reverse, and how far will it go before it does?
f) If your LL was misplaced because it was entered on a vague premonition of a bullish rally, then you have no idea when things will turn around or how long it will take. But now you have 5, 10, 20 other positions in train behind the LL, all based on that one initial assumption that the pair was discounted. The “value” you got on the LL may come back to haunt you as the first in a series of TMTH. That, in turn, may mean the end of your account if the market drops too far. It would be easy to overextend oneself on margin usage with TMTH because there is an overarching assumption, again, that the LL is already at a value.
If you want to trade this method but have the analytical wherewithal of discerning where a viable LL can be placed, that’s a different story than what I’ve described above - maybe you can negate this problem with some technical work and make astute decisions on when and where to begin getting in long. But I think the idea of tactically choosing where your LL goes has taken a backseat here to a certain analytical laziness that suggests “it doesn’t really matter where your LL is” because the pair will almost ceaselessly go up. Hopefully one can see that idea is playing with fire that can set off a great conflagration in your account if an adverse trend takes the pair down significantly (or from high to low since late July to early yesterday, 1330 pips).
Great post.
When I first started this I was very concerned about the placement of that LL as I believed it was the key to this thing working. Very simply, it had to be set at a place there was a “reason” to believe would be revisited. Otherwise you could be holding a whole series of trades that could be in position for eternity. Elijah didn’t seem to be concerned about this saying the interest would make up for it. In reality no one has accounts big enough to safely hold trades for years–the guppy doesn’t stay still, eventually you will get wiped out.
It seems the only way to safely trade this system is with a $100,000 micro account and make a penny a pip. Maybe after a year you will have 1% return while the bulk of your balance sits there silently guarding the possibility of a huge drop and no return to the loss leader.
I like the “spirit” of this system, but if you get wiped out all of the time I don’t see much point in it…even if you get wiped out only once in a lifetime unless you are limiting your balance and withdrawing funds all of the time you will lose all you gained.
Even the master gets wiped out, has twice that I know of. And where is he now? Elijah is very cool…I have nothing negative to say here, but it does seem strange that he has disappeared.
My account is dwindling. I have all my eggs in one basket now. I had to let go of my hedge sell pulling my balance way down. I am all long now—not a choice but a necessity. I have gotten on my knees and promised the forex gods I will never do anything like this again if they let me survive this.
Unless the collective market finds new sentiment for a push up, I am thinking 207 - 208 may be the best we can do, if that.
The good news is, sentiment on this pair can change rapidly without much cause. We have seen that many times in the past.
Today’s small rise but mostly stalled action with yesterday’s giant dip down and back up confirms to me that some value longs are already in.
If these value longs are in enough to make the first wave up, we may go for a nice bull run.
Though any signs of weakness, may make her go on another massive sell off.
I am glad I had this experience because I can see some value in the approach, but here is how I would play it in the future (once I have some extra money only for this):
About every year or two the guppy has a massive collapse, I see one in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007. I would probably define this as being more than a 1500-2000 pip decline from a recent or yearly high. Would have to work out the details…
I would buy my “loss leader” right there … actually it would be a “profit leader” with a firm 300 or 400 pip stop. Then, using the weekly chart only, I would follow price UP, using graders idea of buying behind the rising price, each case with a firm 300-400 pip stop. Depending on how the weekly chart is shaping up, at some point I would stop buying, set all stops to b/e and just collect the interest for as long as it lasts … maybe another year or two. Then do it again when the next collapse takes place.
Need to work out the details, but first need to earn some good money as a [I]trader[/I] so I will have extra to play this way. I’d probably do the same thing with all jpy cross pairs … separate account for each one.
That’s how one trader sees it. 
I would not be a buyer again unless she penetrates the downward sloping trendline on the weekly chart, hope my attachment works 
But if she gets to 207 or 209 and shows signs of reversal, I will be short again, this time hopefully to below the '00 
What’s GB going to do about that 4% inflation? while the economy is stinking too?
Are they going to act like the US and throw inflation out the window and go after the economy? or will they battle inflation first?
While you’re down there, try asking the Big Guy (or Gal), the one with the Power
Now how are you going to be an active trader and not an investor looking at them weekly charts?
Start using tick charts only and go all in with 20 standard lots. Now that’s trading!
Anyways, this neckline test might be over now. We could be headed up up up.:eek:
Are you joking or serious? You are sounding like Elijah.
I know this is a Long thread but 'm looking to sell anytime soon, waiting on a signal which I think might appear in an hour or so.
I will answer in a week or so using my special “Monday Morning Quarterback Skills”
If we sell off, I will say, “I was only joking guys”.
If we rally, I will say, “I knew it all along”.
I will become the Cramer of FX.
Well…I always got my encouragement from Elijah to stick with the positive guppy and not short it etc. Now that he is gone I am assuming that means he no longer believes the guppy will prevail. Sad.
I am pretty much stuck here holding the bag now. My doing of course…and this time I really thought I was playing it safe…“it won’t go down THAT low without a major retracement” I hear myself saying…
Live and learn…eventually you get killed though…and the learning stops. Sometimes you have to back off of the experience and just sit on the sidelines inactive.
I see now she is slowly making her way down. I get the feeling this is the calm before the storm and all hell will break loose soon and down the drain the guppy will go.
I am debating re-funding this account…not sure of the wisdom in setting up more bodies to be slaughtered…or wondering if it is best to throw in the towel and just go down with the ship. Any thoughts?
I really don’t have room to do any back and forth stuff (hedging, selling the fall, buying on up ticks). I tried that last night and kept losing my shorts as the thing went up. Right now it is just sitting there.
I wish I had stuck to my plan I was really doing well until I ran into this thread!! Sold the cow for the magic beans.
[B]216 216 216 ALL ABOARD!!![/B]
Ha Ha, you guys can’t shoot me over a network connection.:D:D:p:p
I wonder if Elijah sees us (me more than others) as the folks Moses left at the foot of the mountain while he went up for the tablets. We are starting to worship the golden “short” calf…finding rational reasons to abandon the “Truth” of the guppy’s return…slipping back into our pagan ways of trading technicals, fundamentals, and market movements that say it might be best to put aside the faith and see that the guppy could move south and never return to its previous heights and that no matter how much you “believe”–nor how much action you take to protect your margin–your account COULD get called due to a plummeting guppy.
Hmmm.
Well…I have surrendered to faith…and have said if this fails (my account) I will know it is best to move on and find my bliss elsewhere!
:rolleyes: