I think it just you, me, and Haught007 in this boat. I don’t know if Haught was demo or live though, and his account is busted.
Elijah has been running with some asian biker chick from New Zealand and everybody else smartly jumped on the fundamental bandwaggon and took the other side.
As for me, I am going to take my other old lady shopping in the big city. While I am there, I am going to see if I can pick up John Foreman’s book. I know it’s on the shelves, I’ve seen it before. I have been wanting to buy it for some time now.
I may be a little too advanced for it, but it couldn’t hurt, and it’s the least I can do for him.
Well I didnt lose my shirt yet, but 2150.00, I still owe 2000.00 on the 4 wheeler.
Now is the time when mortgage drawdown is kicking my arse,
as I am chasing two people for rent. AT least they have now paid July.
I had to buy groceries so GJ may not get any money from me quite yet.
But I still in the LT expect GJ to go up. If the dollar keeps going up that should be good for GJ overall.
Its going to be a crazy year end here. I really do expect a world war to start before the end of next month. I am not part of it, nor am I the cause of it nor will I participate in it. It is wrong, stupid and ignorant.
Of course while I am on vacation I trade GJ. That is my idea of a vacation,
her heading north and me relaxing @ the beach.
I gotta get up to prince frederick MD tomorrow or maybe Monday that should be fun.
It doesn’t look like I will be passing out any hundred dollar bills on my birthday.
I will be the one at the mall with the cup that says “needs money for Guppy!”
She is giving me all sorts of crazy feelings she thinks I am angry with her.
I am stiull amazed she was able to get run down that far. And I wont even dream of where I would be position wise if I had bought on that last run down.
I have done ok over this week with GJ but looking at the daily,
She sure is looking much more likely to retrace up now and she already seems to be on her way. I also don’t know how USD is killing GU for so many days straight. Glad I didnt play that will real money. I would have got in deep long before 186.50. so for now I will go back to ONLY trading GJ. pips now will be meager as there is severe margin limitations.
I am flat now looking to get long at 204.60 203.55 202.60
If I had some margin. I would get long now as low as I can 204.90/205.10
and scale in at 50 pips down.
As for her taking off. I keep getting the feeling when I am watching her that she is going to shoot up like 100 pips in 5 minutes and I am going to be standing there on the sidelines watching her with my jaw dropped open still flat. I cannot tell you the number of times she has left me at the bus stop and stopped less than 1-9 pips away and tried to get me to chase her. Normally I wont. and often I am left and she flies. She has been doing alot of low flying. Now she is going to return to her glory and fly back high.
She has already hit the bottom, I think at least for now.
I guess by scalping only one I am limiting myself and my profits. But I would have to wait for price to drop further if I was going to be buying 2 or 3 lots at one price and then trying to sell them off at different prices. It sounds like a good idea. But if I was going to buy at 205 as my LL. I would NOT be buying 3 LL’s. 205 may not be the bottom but we may easily run up to 206 in the next 4-5 hours.
All that time I traded NJ. I looked more at the GJ charts than the NJ charts.
SO I have been there the whole way with you, and this last run down is a clear demonstration of her inherent mad downward fury. I endeavor to be present with her while she moves, it is as if I am there with her. I can tel;l you if I had GJ and not NJ all that time I would have been making way more pips scalping GJ than sitting there watching a baseball game with NJ. I am a fool for running off with NJ, I hardly even know the girl. And she took my pants! Good thing my wallet only had 2200, would have been better if I had $10 more and I wouldnt have been sold out.
SOmething very funny is going on. It is like when Lehman brothers issued all that additional stock thus diluting their assets further, and the price initially went up?!? And the oil companies are defending their record profits.
‘feds’ are printing dollars like they are going out of style, the rate is crappy, the currency is backed by no real assets, They are diluting further the value of ALL other dollars in circulation, HOW IS it going to continue to go up?
I don’t know but it sure looks like it IS and has been and will be going back up, in advance of any real action to cause it to do so. It is sure going down
VS food & grain, inflation is only going to get worse going into the year end.
Maybe the war will stimulate the economy? and eliminate some humans in an overcorwded world? The whole idea is so WRONG. If you have a terrorist living in your head, you can go the world over and destroy everyone and eveything, Yet the terrorist will still be in your head. Attacking people only incites counterattacks and more attacks down the line.
Look at the volumne increasing, once we hit 7-8PM EDT range look for momentum move upward. lasting quite a few hours.
Look at yesterday on the 1H at 1800 and 1900 then bewm at 2000 reversal
and uptrend, Yesterday asia coming in was the point of reversal,
look for the same thing to happen tonight, when they come in they will say what a steal this GJ is lets sell some crappy yen…watch
I couldnt wait for 204.60. next buy order down is at 203.55. Here is where I walk away from her for the night. So someone be sure to guide her or remind her of her purpose if she gets knocked off course.
Thank you Elijah…I appreciate the confidence. But if this goes down 200 pips I’m out. So at 203.50 I am putting in a hedge if I have the margin to do it. That will tide me over until I can get more money in the account. Unless a more wise person would advise I wait until the very last breath of possibility…as we all know, things can turn around on a pip…there is always that LOWEST pip to hit!
GJ ran down a bit, I am long at 204.89. Soon asia will be here Tp target is
100 pips. next buy down is 203.55 then 202.60 But by then I will be sold out.
I only expect her to go up from here. She may be dumb and go to the bus stop at 204.61 and look for me waiting at 204.60 If she goes to 204.60 and I am not there I am in trouble heh. She agreed to pick me up there earlier. I just jumped on the bumber as she may spin her wheels at any momentheading back north to Texas. I don’t know how she got in mexico or wherever she has been hiding out. Maybe she went to south america to look at some foreign alpaca. When all the while. she knows I have the same alpacas as they have alpaca anywhere. My Alpacas are predictable and they know exactly how long my arms are. And they even think I am predictable.
Gj is definately predictable, and for the record she STILL DOES OWE ME MONEY, from March 17 2008, Granted I lost her $1250 on NJ so I suppose she IS angry with me, which explains the leaving me at the bus stop most of the week and limiting me to 100 pips. Ideally I expect her to lay thousands of pips per week in my lap. She reminds me of one of my chickens. I dont have a link to “bucky”, suffice to say she WILL buck you. She is a hen and doesn’t even allow roosters twice her size she doesn’t “know” to jump on for a ride north (up the Hill).
Guppy is right in that range. And expect some action in the next 200 minutes. Have a great night!
About the hedge…that is good to know, I wonder if it is the same at IBFX…possibly so…so maybe I didn’t have to throw out all those longs I tossed overboard to lighten the load. Oh well.
I have been watching this baby like a hawk today and I’ve noticed an interesting pattern. She will oscillate for a long while with a 10 pip range around 205 then dump down to 204.60 or lower and then climb all the way back up to 205. Like a beach ball that can’t be held underwater. Is this significant? Or is it just typical market fluctuations that don’t mean anything.
After staring at these charts for 72 hours straight I am beginning to get a feel for her “pops”. She feels a bit neutral now…but when she drops she drops faster than when she goes back up. The climb up is usually tedious. That doesn’t feel all that great to me…as if she WANTS to go down, but something keeps her afloat. It will be interesting to see where she breaks…above 205.35 or below 204.60.
I may wait a little longer to put on my sell hedge. And I am hoping I don’t have to go through the stress of watching her drop 200 pips. It would be so sweet to see her do one of her typical road runner dashes to the highs!
Just wondering if anyone here has experience in using fx options to either cover their LL or their average longs when the market looks like selling off. The options premium might look cheap against one of these long runs. Trouble with FX options is that they are European style and you can only exercise on the day you buy it for compared with American style which is any time in between purchase and expiry. Thoughts anyone?
Hey pipsquito, just wanted to say I’m in about the same position as you. About 200 pip margin to play with, however it sounds like you are playing with alot more money in it than me :eek:
Wish ya luck, cuz luck for you is luck for me
For right now I have a hedge open so my account stays even except for the loss on carry-over interest…Lets hope we can catch her next swings accurately.
Right now this all feels like a bad poker night. Where after losing a big hand, the guys just bleed me out from antee’s.
I hear ya buddy…it is excrutiating…and watching it go down like it is right now just makes me sick because it just gets closer and closer to busting me. I will soon put on that hedge…but that is dangerous if you don’t get a drop after you place it…I just don’t have the money to throw away when I close the hedge trade.
Elijah says that Tokyo will send it up…so far it has reached the lowest point all day. Not so sure we are not in for much more loss. What are your feelings? You think she will go up?
I think I have no idea where she’s heading at the moment. I’m just sitting with my hedge, since its only about 10 usd a day, I’m willing to sit on it for a full month before I make any major moves.
There seems to be a big feel on the forums here that she will retrace to 207’ish (pulling this from m2p, andrew, and jeba). So I’m keeping a major eye out for that. As a retrace to that would give me some nice breathing room.
Mostly just sitting here hoping I’m emotionally neutral and not kidding myself.
Well…207 would certainly help. But those people are probably thinking of that purely as a retracement and a respite from a massive downtrend, which it will resume after hitting that mark. BUT…if it DOES hit 207 and I can make a few pips on the way up, I would hedge it then and just cash in on the downside as it slid into hades again. I would probably let go of a few of these longs too. I have one at 207ish. So that would go, and maybe a few others.
I am wondering if I should just do what you have done and put the hedge on right now rather than waiting for it to dump. I don’t like the idea of a short that I have to later get rid of at a loss, but it doesn’t look to me like it is going to break to the upside tonight…it feels weighted down, like it wants to push down…when it falls, it falls hard and just creeps back up. Not sure if that means anything. (Right now it DID pop back up, but following these tiny 1 min chart ticks and thinking they mean anything is rather infantile…for some reason though I feel like I am getting a hypervigilant sort of feel for this thing, like reading a pulse (or tea leaves!)…could all be my imagination though.)
I haven’t even been able to go to the bathroom watching this thing…I will be glad when Friday afternoon comes so I can sleep a bit. This is just teaching me a big lesson…to stay away from this sort of volatile trading. I love to trade, but I don’t like to be stressed. Since this is basically going to be my income I have to trade with a big account…can’t make $10 a week and be ok with it. Obviously I was premature going live. I was doing great with demo for two years…then made the plunge and got caught up with this system…which I shouldn’t have. No offense to Elijah et al, but this isn’t going to work for me. I think it works if you trade small numbers…and are just happy to make a few hundred a week or whatever. Then if it gets blown, it isn’t too terrible. Anyway…I also don’t have the discipline to play this by the rules…so I pay the price.
M2P…what is your system you say I would like? You did write it up on the thread once, right? I will check it out. You say this is profitable 100% of the time? Yes, 100%…as long as you have a bottomless pit for an account. I traded a demo once with no stop loss…and allowed trades to go 700 or more pips in the red (I only traded WITH the daily trend, and would only close a trade if the trend reversed, which it never did while I was trading this.) I also had nearly 100% success…as these pairs always eventually rejoined their trend…I bought up as they returned, and made out quite well. But I had to have a ton of money as a balance.
Anyway…I’m not knocking Elijah’s system…as I said, I love the spirit of it. I am with Elijah 100% with his world view. I am seeing that the forex forces a person like me to practice what he preaches, and I see I have not been very good at that. But I am working on it, and although I take a lot of beating, I do believe I am a better person, all around, for it. I love this market, and although it is killing me right now I think this experience will make me a better trader. I now understand my boundaries better and know that I cannot in the future deal with this sort of drawdown. My nerves can’t take it.
I think this market affords us a great opportunity to not only be scientific traders, but also spiritual or metaphysical traders. Even though you may not believe that your thoughts and beliefs and attitudes actually change the market, they certainly do influence your decisions and choices. Although most literature and seasoned traders say to trade with no emotion, I would like to advocate the opposite…to trade with GREAT emotion…emotion of success, positive belief, and certainty that all decisions are for the greater good and will ultimately ALWAYS lead to success. I think if you trade with negative emotion you are doomed (like me!) and then it is best, as a first step, to trade with NO emotion. But I think a higher place to be is to trade with enormous amounts of positive energy…positive emotion…and certainty that you will succeed…know it before you even begin the journey.
We might be in for a good bloody nose here. All eyes on the USD atm. I’m guessing a nice chunk of oil speculation change is shifting back into stocks combined with some other good recent signs in the US economy. This is going to beat probably beat the stuffing out of the Euro, JPY and GBP over the next few days. On the downside, the change in oil prices is sure to give the JPY some leverage over GBP in the short term.
I’ve been trying to trade this system on the USD/JPY and I’ve got sell orders all the way up although I’m looking at a potentially deep hole. I’m aware that I’m actually going backwards on it given the negative overnight rates, but the strength this week has been begging me to run at it. I’ve got a couple of hedges to help ease the panic button trigger finger so I’m not completely scared.
I’m curious to see what the japanese are going to do though and I’ve got a bit of a hope they come in and start snapping up yen like crazy men - this kind of run will hamper any possible gains from the price of oil dropping.
Hmmm. it’s noon in Tokyo and the price is nearing the peak of the prior top from this week on the USD/JPY pair. (biting nails).
I didn’t want you to go un-noticed…Unfortunately though I have no idea what you are writing about. Sounds interesting though. Maybe someone else can comment on your post…there are many very market savvy folks here that may have some insight regarding your question.
So, with regard to the guppy, you can get a bloody nose if you go up too high too fast…or you can get one from falling down a set of steep stairs…which type of bloody nose are you suggesting?? Up or down?
if she gets knocked off course.